Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – We’ve arrived at the time of year where intense heat and frost can happen in the same week.   But not necessarily in the same place.   Read on:

Heat persists this week over parts of the prairies, but the severe weather threat lessens as we begin September. Temperatures in many areas will reach 30 at the start and end of the week, with a brief outbreak of cooler weather midweek.

Late season hail storms in August damaged crops in both Alberta and Saskatchewan last week, and while more rain is forecast for some areas in the middle of this week, severe weather is less likely. Not impossible, but less likely. Rain interrupted harvest operations last week across all three Prairie Provinces.   Where there was no hail, the storms were beneficial, helping to partially replenish topsoil moisture. Hail wasn’t the only source of damage…strong wind across Saskatchewan caused some crop damage, especially with swaths getting blown around.

Across the prairies, rain is still needed, especially in the area between Highway 2 in Alberta and Regina, Saskatchewan.  East of Regina into Manitoba, rainfall totals were near the long term averages. And west of Highway 2 in Alberta, as the map below shows, there was plenty of rainfall in August.

Of the three Prairie Provinces, Alberta will likely be the driest this coming week.  There will be few weather-related interruptions to the harvest in Alberta, but rain events are expected between Tuesday and Friday in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

The map below shows expected rainfall up to late afternoon/early evening Sunday, September 8.

In Alberta, south of Edmonton, very little rain is expected.  In some areas, none at all.   Northern Alberta, on the other hand, will get a good amount of rain, up to 20 mm.  Rainfall in the 15-20 mm range will be widespread across Saskatchewan and Manitoba this week, and, again, it will fall between Tuesday and Friday.

RELATED: Hail Report: Golf Ball-Sized Hail Destroys Crops Across the Prairies

Monday:

Hot dry weather will continue for southern Alberta and Southern Saskatchewan.   And, it will be dry.    Temperatures will reach the 30s in the area shaded in green below:

The map above shows expected temperatures midday Monday.

It will be hot and dry across most of the prairies, except for parts of northernmost Saskatchewan and Alberta where a low pressure system will provide some rain and possibly non-severe storms to the area.  A cold front will develop out of that low, and that will generate a bit of activity in the coming days, as it sweeps across the prairies.

Tuesday:

Alberta is first to get hit with the front, and its associated weather.   Expect rain overnight across central and southwestern Alberta before sunrise Tuesday as the front moves through.   The wind won’t be super strong, but it will shift to the north.   By noon the front and its associated rainfall are over Saskatchewan, with heavier precipitation in the central and northern part of the province, moving into northern Manitoba by the end of the day.   Through the day, rain will fall north of the town of Athabasca.  With the northerly wind shift, temperatures across the prairies will drop to the low to mid 20s,  with the hotter weather drifting south and east toward the Dakotas.

Wednesday:

The cool-down continues, with highs dropping to the teens in most of Alberta and Saskatchewan, as the Athabasca area rain slumps southward to southeastern Alberta and western Saskatchewan.  Most of Manitoba will be warmer and drier.   By Wednesday afternoon, almost all of Saskatchewan will have had rain with the most intense precipitation forecast in a north-south line right down the middle of the province.  This is likely to cause another disruption to harvesting in Saskatchewan.

Thursday:

A high pressure system is established early in the morning over Alberta, and that province will be dry all day.   As the high strengthens, rain will taper off during the day in Saskatchewan, with the heavier precipitation moving into Manitoba.   Combines and swathers in Manitoba will be parked Thursday, with the heavier rain falling across the farmland from the Interlake to the US border.   The rain will keep Manitoba cold, with highs only between 10 and 15 degrees, while under the high pressure to the west, Alberta and Saskatchewan should warm to the mid 20s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday:

These three days can be grouped together, as the weather will clear out, dry up, and heat up into the weekend.   High pressure dominates the prairies, eliminating any chance of rain.   Sunshine will be abundant, and temperatures will rise.    On Friday, expect the high 20s in Alberta, the mid 20s in Saskatchewan, with highs in Manitoba only in the mid teens thanks to the previous day’s rain and frontal passage.  There may even be some FROST  early Saturday morning in Manitoba in the Red River Valley and east of lake Winnipeg.   A light frost is possible.  A killing frost is unlikely.   Temperatures will rebound for Saturday and Sunday with highs in Alberta reaching the 30s.  Saskatchewan will get to the high 20s, and most of Manitoba could see highs in the low 20s. 

Event Forecasts

Organic Night! Fort Whyte Farms, Winnipeg MB, Sept 5,  6:30 to 11:30 pm

Rain in the morning, clearing in the afternoon.  Event temperature falls from 13 degrees at 6:30 to 9 degrees at 11:30

Chestermere Country Fair and Rodeo, Sept 7

Sunny, light wind, high 29

COMPARE TO LAST WEEK’S PRAIRIE WEATHER REPORT: Prairie Weather this Week – August 26