Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Harvest is still the story, and unfortunately, the weather isn’t making things any easier.
The active weather pattern that has produced repeated rounds of rain, thunderstorms and localized severe weather across the Prairies since late August is continuing into the new week.
A vigorous system that moved through the region over the weekend produced severe thunderstorms across southern Saskatchewan, including wind gusts in the 90 to 100 km range, hail and a small tornado risk near the Saskatchewan-Manitoba boundary. That followed some very substantial rainfall: 75–125 mm in a corridor east of Regina through the Yorkton area and into western Manitoba, with 50–100 mm reported in areas from Saskatoon south toward Swift Current.
Now, another organized low-pressure system is moving across the Prairies early this week. It will spread another swath of rain through southern Saskatchewan and western Manitoba, with 20–30 mm generally expected and locally higher amounts possible with thunderstorms.
The wettest part of the Prairies remains the broad corridor along and south of Highway 16 in Saskatchewan, extending eastward toward Manitoba, and southwestward into southeastern Alberta. There is a 70–80% chance of at least 25 mm of additional rain over the next 10 days in this area, with a 40–60% chance of 50 mm or more. The map below shows the chance of more than 50 mm of rain up until Sunday evening:
There is some good news. Once this system moves east, a warmer, drier break develops for the middle of the week. Wednesday and Thursday look like the best harvest opportunities of the week, particularly across Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Unfortunately, another system is expected to begin organizing toward the weekend, bringing renewed uncertainty to harvest operations.
And the active pattern may not end there. Longer-range guidance continues to suggest additional opportunities for rain during the week of September 14–18, although confidence naturally decreases that far out.
Harvest remains well behind normal
The timing of these systems is particularly unfortunate because harvest is already running well behind average.
Alberta’s latest available provincial report, covering August 25, showed only 5.6% of the crop harvested, compared with a five-year average of 15.2%. Progress is extremely uneven, with southern Alberta considerably farther ahead while harvest in the Peace and northern regions was still below 1%.
Saskatchewan’s latest report has harvest at 18% complete, up seven points in a week but still well behind the 39% five-year average. Some areas received exceptionally heavy rain, including 136 mm in the Prairie Rose area and 125 mm in the Fertile Belt.
The situation is also challenging in Manitoba, where the September 1 crop report is now available.
For producers, the message is pretty simple: every dry, warm day matters right now.
Monday
A wet weather pattern becomes well established over the prairies due to a large upper-level low over the northwestern United States and a powerful surface low downstream of the upper low in Saskatchewan.
Peace Region
The Peace Region will be one of the drier areas of Western Canada Monday. While a Saskatchewan-centred low will generate significant rain elsewhere on the prairies, sunshine will frequently show up in the Peace, and temperatures will generally reach the low 20s. Rain is not expected. This will be one of the better days this week for fieldwork, provided the ground is dry enough.
Alberta
Rain and showers spread across much of the province, with the greatest impact likely across central and southern areas. Temperatures will only reach the mid-teens, coolest where rain is persistent. And, as the map below shows, it will be most persistent in the south, with over 50 mm possible in many areas between Highway 3 and the US border:
This is another poor harvest day. Alberta’s already-delayed harvest means producers will be watching every opportunity to get machinery into the field, but wet soils and damp crops will limit operations, or stall them altogether.
Saskatchewan
Rain continues across much of the province, particularly southern and eastern areas. Expect temperatures generally in the mid teens, with cooler readings where rain persists.
Amounts in excess of 30 mm are possible across parts of southern Saskatchewan Monday, with locally higher amounts in thunderstorms. This is particularly concerning in the areas that have already received repeated heavy rainfall.
Manitoba
Showers develop through the afternoon and evening, with a chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures generally range from 19 to 21 across agricultural areas.
Rainfall of 10-15 mm is possible in parts of southern Manitoba, with higher amounts in thunderstorms. Western Manitoba and the Interlake will have to deal with significantly more precipitation, with totals near or above 50 mm, as shown on the map above. Fields that have already experienced lodging or standing water will be especially vulnerable to another soaking.
Tuesday
Peace Region
Another day of sunny, dry weather – great for fieldwork, where fieldwork is possible. Highs will reach the low 20s, and rain isn’t going to happen. Some fields may still be wet from previous precipitation, so each dry day going forward is welcome.
Alberta
The upper-level low in the northwestern US that fed rain into Alberta for several days finally moves on and moves fast. By the afternoon it will be in central Manitoba, and the sky will clear out in behind it. Conditions improve considerably as the low pulls east. Expect a mix of sun and cloud with temperatures generally in the 18 to 23-degree range.
This should be the beginning of a useful drying period, although soils will need time to firm up before heavier equipment can return to some fields, particularly in central and northeastern Alberta.
Saskatchewan
The eastern half of the province could remain unsettled longer while western areas begin to dry out, with the rain-producing upper low tracking through the province from Montana to Manitoba. Temperatures generally reach the mid-teens. The low will move fairly slowly, and most of southern and central Saskatchewan will receive a further 25 to 50 mm of rain. So, even as it dries out toward the afternoon, there will be substantial moisture on the ground, with a few drying days needed before the next harvest day. Will we get those drying days? Read on….
Manitoba
With an upper-level low crossing central Manitoba through the day, it will rain. And most of that rain will again fall in the Interlake. The northern Interlake could receive 30-40 mm of rain, with far smaller amounts in the south. In fact, agricultural areas across southern Manitoba west of Winnipeg and south of the Trans Canada Highway may not get any rain at all. High temperatures across Manitoba will range from the mid to high teens.
Wednesday
Peace Region
A low-pressure system in the Northwest Territories will draw some cloud into the Peace Region by the afternoon. Rain is not likely in the Peace itself, but it can’t be ruled out, as showers are expected to develop just to the west in the afternoon. Highs will reach the high teens or low 20s.
Alberta
This is one of the better harvest days of the week. Sunshine and warmer temperatures, generally 20 to 23 degrees, should allow fields and crops to dry considerably. Rain is not expected anywhere in Alberta on Wednesday, though clouds may build in the north. The combination of warmth and drying winds could provide a valuable opportunity to make up some lost ground.
Saskatchewan
Sunshine returns across Saskatchewan, with afternoon temperatures in the low 20s. Get the combines moving if field conditions allow. After another round of rain, Wednesday begins what could be a short but important harvest window.
Manitoba
As the rain-producing low-pressure system moves into Ontario, the sky in Manitoba will clear out. The eastern side of the province may see some early-morning rain, but by afternoon, the sun should shine brightly. In fields that are dry enough, conditions should be considerably better for fieldwork than earlier in the week. For producers dealing with lodged crops, however, patience may still be required where soils remain saturated. Expect highs in the high teens to low 20s.
Thursday
Peace Region
A mix of sun and cloud with temperatures generally remaining in the 10 to 12-degree range due to a passing cold front coming out of the low in the Northwest Territories. The front is unlikely to produce rain for the Peace Region, so it will be another reasonably good day for fieldwork. Conditions will deteriorate later, as rain makes its way through the region Thursday night. Until then, grab every minute you have to try to catch up on the harvest.
Alberta
Another favourable harvest day, particularly across southern and central Alberta. Temperatures generally range from 18-25 degrees, with the warmest conditions in the south. Those highs will be reached earlier in the day, though, as a cold front will cross the region, knocking temperatures back down to the 11 to 13 degree range in the afternoon. As the front passes, it is likely to generate rain, first in central Alberta in the midday, and into southern Alberta in the late afternoon. Before that, this could be a good opportunity in Alberta to make significant harvest progress before the next system approaches.
Saskatchewan
Warm and mostly sunny, with cloud moving into southern Saskatchewan during the afternoon as a cold front sweeps down from the northwest. Temperatures generally in the low 20s across southern and central regions.
This could be the standout harvest day of the week, which, unfortunately, isn’t saying much. Mature crops should be prioritized while conditions are favourable, particularly in areas that have managed to dry sufficiently following the early-week rain.
Manitoba
Sunny and warm, with temperatures generally in the low to mid 20s. This will be another strong day for harvesting across Manitoba’s southern agricultural regions, provided fields have dried enough to support equipment.
Friday
Peace Region
The next system begins to organize to the west, bringing increasing cloud, cooler conditions, and a few mm of rain. This closes the harvest window that has allowed field operations to resume over the past few days. It could be a brief interruption to the harvest, as drier weather is likely to return on the weekend. Temperatures Friday generally fall back into the 10-12 degree range, as showers become increasingly likely.
Alberta
A noticeable change develops, particularly in western and southern Alberta. Temperatures generally range from 12 to 15 degrees, with increasing cloud and a growing chance of showers. The harvest window begins to close. Producers should take advantage of any remaining dry hours.
Saskatchewan
Still relatively cool, with temperatures generally in the mid-teens, but clouds increase as the next system approaches. Southern Saskatchewan should remain dry, with rain in the northern forests. Despite the cloudy, cool weather, the lack of rain means there may still be some useful harvesting, especially early in the day.
Manitoba
It’s another cooler-than-average day for Manitoba, with temperatures in agricultural regions ranging from 16 to 18 degrees for afternoon highs. While rain falls in northern Manitoba, south of the lakes, it will remain dry and, for the most part, sunny. This will be another useful day for harvest, although conditions will become increasingly unsettled heading into the weekend.
Saturday and Sunday
Peace Region
Confidence decreases for the weekend forecast, but the overall pattern points toward cooler and increasingly unsettled conditions as another Pacific system moves into the region. Temperatures should stay in the mid-teens both days, with periods of cloud and scattered showers. Any meaningful rainfall will slow field drying and limit harvest opportunities.
Alberta
The weekend trend is toward cooler temperatures and increasing cloud cover as the next weather system approaches. Daytime highs will generally range from 15 to 19 degrees, warmest in southern Alberta. While there should still be some opportunities for fieldwork, particularly early in the weekend, producers should be prepared for interruptions from showers and deteriorating field conditions.
Saskatchewan
After the productive midweek harvest window, conditions become less favourable through the weekend. Temperatures are expected to settle back into the mid-teens, with increasing cloud cover and a growing chance of showers. Harvest progress should continue where fields remain firm, but producers will want to make the most of any dry periods as another round of unsettled weather develops.
Manitoba
Temperatures ease back from the warmth of midweek, generally ranging from the mid-teens to maybe 20 degrees. The risk of showers increases through the weekend as the next system moves eastward. While some harvest activity should still be possible, field conditions will remain a concern in areas that have received repeated rounds of heavy rainfall over the past two weeks.
FROST FORECAST
One encouraging feature of the forecast is that there is still no compelling signal for a widespread killing frost or hard freeze during the next two weeks. The cooler conditions accompanying these systems are being driven primarily by cloud, rain and temporary changes in the air mass rather than a major early-season Arctic outbreak.
So, while the weather is frustrating, the crop still has some time.
The challenge is finding enough warm, dry days in a row to actually get it harvested.
EVENT FORECAST
Alberta
Grimshaw Harvest Moon Festival, September 11 – 12, Grimshaw, AB
September 11 – Partly cloudy, a few showers, high 10
September 12 – Mainly sunny, high 14
Crocus Hill Fall Fair, September 12, Valleyview, AB
September 12 – Mainly sunny, high 13
Agra Fair, September 11- 13, Spruce Grove, AB
September 11 – Partly cloudy, windy, high 13
September 12 – Partly cloudy, chance of showers, high 12
September 13 – Sunny, high 17
Heritage Fall Fair, September 12, Brooks, AB
September 12 – Cloudy, chance of showers, high 10
Bonnyville Fall Fair and Farmers’ Market, September 12-13, Bonnyville, AB
September 12 – Mostly cloudy, high 12
September 13 – Sunny, high 18
Saskatchewan
Morse Museum Country Fair, September 13, Morse, SK
September 13 – Sunny, high 20
Manitoba
Fall on the Farm, September 7, Mennonite Heritage Village, Steinbach, MB
September 7 – Cloudy, chance of showers, especially in the afternoon, high 23
Honey, Garlic, and Maple Syrup Festival, September 12, Manitou, MB
September 12 – Increasing afternoon cloud, high 17
READ: Hail: “We haven’t seen this level of claims in 10 years”
