Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – RRC Meteorologist David Spence shares a Prairie Weather this Week mid-week update!

Thursday:

Alberta

High pressure slowly building  in southern BC will force a westerly surface wind in Alberta, and that will keep us in dry weather.  It’ll be partly cloudy across most of the province, with seasonable temperatures.   Except for the far north, where highs will be between 0 and 5, temperatures across most of Alberta should reach the low double digits.  In southeastern Alberta, from Bassano to the US border, including Lethbridge, Raymond, Warner, and Milk River, temperatures will warm to the low teens.

Saskatchewan

A westerly wind will keep most agricultural regions dry, but there is a chance of some midday rain showers through central Saskatchewan.   The showers won’t last long, and accumulations won’t be meaningful.   In the far northern boreal forest, there will be snow through much of the day.   It will likely be heavy, wet snow, with temperatures near zero.  5-10 degree afternoon highs can be expected south of Prince Albert National Park to the US border, with no significant weather.

Manitoba

Most of Manitoba will be dry all day Thursday.   However, showers that develop in the midday in Saskatchewan will cross central Manitoba during the afternoon.   The rain will miss the agricultural regions of the south.  However, there will be considerable cloud cover through the day.   The cloud will clear out in the evening as the central Manitoba rain moves east. The wind will come out of the west, and there will be no significant weather events, as temperatures between the Interlake and North Dakota reach 5-10 degrees, with a pocket of warmer weather from Winnipeg and Portage La Prairie south to the US border.    Further north, highs in Manitoba will come in within a few degrees of zero.

Friday:

Alberta

After a frosty morning, with sub zero temperatures across the province,  it will warm up as the sun shines through the midday.   Toward late afternoon and evening,  chinook conditions will develop, including the familiar arch over the foothills in the south.   A large Low pressure system develops in the Gulf of Alaska, which will shoot Pacific air across BC, giving us chinook conditions in southern Alberta.    That means it’ll be dry and breezy east of the Rockies.   North of Edmonton, away from the effects of the late-day chinook, temperatures will peak near zero, despite the sunshine.  In the chinook zone, computer models show high temperatures hovering between 5 and 10.  That’s not especially warm for an October chinook, but the chinook’s late arrival will keep temperatures from climbing any further.   That said, chinooks are notorious for busting temperature forecasts, and that could very well happen here.    Windy, dry, and warm (maybe).

Saskatchewan

Dry air will continue to be pumped into Saskatchewan with a westerly flow.   Most of Saskatchewan can expect temperatures to rise to the low single digits, with highs of 5-10 expected south of Davidson and Melville to the US border. Otherwise, the sun will shine, and no significant weather is expected.

Manitoba

Daytime showers or rain are expected between the southern basin of Lake Winnipeg and the Ontario boundary.   Otherwise, southern Manitoba can expect a sunny Friday, and temperatures could rise as high as 10 degrees all the way to the northern shores of the lakes.  Further north, subzero temperatures are expected over the permafrost, where early morning snow will cross northern Manitoba from east to west, ending up in Hudson Bay by the end of the day.

Saturday:

Expect dry weather Saturday morning across all three provinces until the late afternoon, when snow will fall in northwestern Alberta.  The moisture will be flung into the area by a strong Low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska.  Overnight and into Sunday morning, the snow will move toward northern Saskatchewan.   Otherwise the prairies will be dry on Saturday, with no moisture expected in the southern and central agricultural regions.  Expect sunshine, with bands of thin cloud crossing the prairies from west to east during the day.  In the south, it will be a warm day, with widespread highs of 5-10 degrees through the central prairies, but even warmer south of the Trans Canada highway in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.   There, expect highs in the low teens.  The warmest area on the prairies will be southern Alberta, with highs reaching the mid to high teens as far north as Edmonton.

Sunday:

The powerful Pacific low moves across Haida Gwaii and onto the mainland during the day,  and gives birth to a secondary low pressure system in the lee of the Rockies in southern Alberta.  This will create a cloudier day for most of Alberta, with partly cloudy conditions prevalent in southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba.   An area of mixed precipitation will develop in the Peace, but the rest of the prairies will stay dry.   The Alberta low pressure system will move east, with the potential to change prairie weather in a big way early next week, but we’ll have more on that in our regular update on Monday morning.   Early morning temperatures Sunday will remain above zero across Alberta and western Saskatchewan, but could drop as low as -15 in southeastern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba.  Sunday will be a very warm day in Alberta, with temperatures potentially reaching 20 in the south.   The rest of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, can expect highs in the low to mid teens, except for the far north, where temperatures will peak near zero.

COMPARE TO THIS WEEK’S WEATHER REPORT: Prairie Weather This Week – Oct 21