Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – November begins with mild, dry weather, and the pattern will hold.
The period of calm weather in the first week of November continues. High pressure dominates western Canada well into the second week of November, which keeps the Prairies mild, quiet and mostly dry. A few systems sneak through, but they bring little more than cloud and light precipitation.
The early-week story is fog and low cloud. Overcast skies and sporadic drizzle trap the air near the ground across southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and forecasters had to trim some overly optimistic daytime highs because the models read warm air aloft that cloud cover keeps from reaching the surface. Once a larger system exits through the Great Lakes by midweek, a strong high moves in behind it, and sunshine returns. This fits the El Niño pattern the long-range guidance has pointed to all fall, with the polar jet weak and the storm track pushed south.
The harvest has wrapped up for most of the prairies, and we wait and hope for sufficient snow over the winter to put us in good shape for spring seeding. And with El Niño suggesting a dry winter, it’s important that we start the off-season with an abundance of soil moisture already in place. As the map below shows, that is the case for most of the prairies, except for parts of Alberta and the BC Peace region:
The map above shows more than 200 percent of normal soil moisture in the Edmonton area, parts of southern Alberta, and much of Saskatchewan. The driest fields and pastures are in Alberta, west of Highway 2 between Calgary and Red Deer. The map shows the state of soil moisture as of October 31, 2026.
This will be a quiet week for weather across the prairies, with warm weather and sunshine being dominant. Parts of Alberta won’t get any precipitation at all. Elsewhere on the Prairies, precipitation totals will be light, except for southeastern Manitoba, where there will be some significant rainfall. It will be sufficiently warm for the precipitation to fall as rain, not snow. The map below shows expected accumulated precipitation until late Sunday night:
And just to reinforce the point, the map below shows expected snowfall for the same time period:
No snow this week for the prairies. That small blob north of Cold Lake represents snow that is expected late Sunday night. Until then, it will be as snow-free there as anywhere else on the prairies.
Here’s the day-to-day breakdown, region by region:
Monday
Peace Region
A ridge holds over the region, which keeps conditions quiet. Expect a mix of sun and cloud. It will be unseasonably warm, with highs approaching 10 degrees. Overnight low temperatures are expected to remain above the freezing point.
Alberta
Not much weather to speak of. Patchy fog is possible early in central and southeastern areas where moisture lingers, and any fog clears by mid-morning. Afternoons reach about 4 to 9 degrees, with the mildest air in two regions – the south and the northwest. Skies stay mostly sunny to partly cloudy. This is a workable day for fall tillage and fertilizer application where the ground is not frozen.
Saskatchewan
The dirty ridge traps fog and low cloud across the south, with poor visibility likely at times through the morning. A slight risk of freezing rain exists early in the north, just beyond the grain belt, as a shortwave brings moisture into the area. Afternoons reach about 2 to 6 degrees. It may be even warmer in southeastern Saskatchewan, near the Manitoba boundary and the North Dakota border. If you are hauling grain or livestock, allow extra time and slow down on county roads, especially before 10 a.m., when it’s foggy.
Manitoba
A more organized system brings rain to southern Manitoba and the Interlake today. Expect widespread fog and low cloud, plus scattered showers and drizzle, with total amounts light. Afternoons reach about 3 to 7 degrees across most of the province. The cloud keeps highs a few degrees cooler than they’d otherwise be. Roads stay wet, and visibility drops in fog patches, so take care on the highway.
Tuesday
Peace Region
It will be a cloudy day across the Alberta and BC Peace region, but it won’t be the kind of cloud that produces rainfall. Model guidance is suggesting highs between 7 and 9 degrees, but the persistent cloud will likely result in temperatures 2 or 3 degrees lower. Frost returns to some areas overnight, with lows between +1 and -4.
Alberta
Mostly sunny and mild under the ridge. Afternoons reach about 5 to 8 degrees in the south and 3 to 7 in the north. Overnight lows fall to minus 2 to minus 7. Mild, dry weather like this dries out cured pasture and stubble, so avoid burning or running equipment that throws sparks on windy afternoons.
Saskatchewan
Fog and low cloud linger in the morning across the south and clear through the day as the system moves off to the east. Afternoons reach about 3 to 8 degrees. The sunshine returns by afternoon in most areas. If you run grain bin aeration fans, wait for the afternoon, because damp morning air adds moisture to grain instead of removing it.
Manitoba
Rain and drizzle taper off as the system exits toward the Great Lakes. Fog lifts slowly, and sun breaks through by afternoon in most areas, except perhaps the far southeastern corner of the province. Afternoons reach about 3 to 7 degrees. Temperatures should remain above freezing overnight. That said, icy patches can’t be ruled out on untreated roads in the early morning.
Wednesday
Peace Region
Sunny and mild, with afternoons around 3 to 6 degrees. A large area of high pressure continues to build, keeping the clouds and moisture away. It will freeze overnight, with lows reaching minus 4 to minus 6.
Alberta
Sunny and quiet across the province, with afternoons in the low to mid-single digits. Light winds help. Livestock water systems need less attention on days like this, but keep checking tank heaters and waterers, since overnight lows continue to fall below freezing.
Saskatchewan
A big high settles over the province, delivering sunshine through the day. Afternoons reach about 5 to 9 degrees. Lows run minus 3 to minus 11. This is a good day to finish fall tillage, fertilizer work or any outstanding equipment repairs while soils stay workable.
Manitoba
Sunny and quiet with light wind. A slow-moving low in Minnesota may produce rain through most of the day in and south of Whiteshell Provincial Park, but it will be well away from any agricultural concerns. Afternoons reach the mid-single digits, and overnight lows fall to minus 2 to minus 7.
Thursday
Peace Region
Mostly sunny and mild, with afternoons around 2 to 7 degrees. Frost returns overnight. A low-pressure system develops over the BC Peace Thursday morning and moves rapidly northeast. It will dot the sky with clouds, but it’s not expected to produce any precipitation before reaching Yellowknife.
Alberta
Sunny and mild again. North of the Trans Canada Highway, temperatures will reach the mid-to-high single digits in the afternoon. To the south, double-digit highs are likely in Lethbridge, Brooks, Medicine Hat, and points in between. High pressure holds. No meaningful precipitation is expected. A good day to service equipment and haul feed.
Saskatchewan
Sunny to partly cloudy, with afternoons around 4 to 9 degrees. North of the Yellowhead Highway, it will be cooler, with much of northern Saskatchewan remaining below the melting point all day. Lows near minus 3 to minus 8. Winds stay light to moderate. This is a quiet day across the province. Saskatchewan releases its final crop report of the year Thursday. When it’s ready, you’ll find it here.
Manitoba
Mostly sunny with afternoons around 4 to 8 degrees. Overnight lows reach minus 2 to minus 6. Now that the rainfall has finally ended in southeastern Manitoba, the pattern across the entire province stays dry.
Friday
Peace Region
Mostly sunny and seasonably mild, or perhaps even warmer. Afternoons will be as warm as 9 degrees. Pacific lows stay west of the Rockies and keep their moisture off the Prairies.
Alberta
Mostly sunny and mild, with afternoons about 5 to 10 degrees. A lee trough will form along the eastern slopes of the Rockies, and that will likely produce windy conditions in most areas south of the Yellowhead Highway. With the warm westerly chinook wind, overnight temperatures are likely to be mild and well above the freezing point.
Saskatchewan
Dry and mostly sunny, with afternoons around 4 to 9 degrees. Temperatures will rise above the melting point all the way to the northern boundary with the Northwest Territories. The mild pattern continues. Overnight temperatures drop below freezing on the eastern side of the province, from north to south.
Manitoba
Dry and mostly sunny, with afternoons around 3 to 5 degrees. Light winds. A chance of some cloud late in the day in the southeast as a weak system tracks well to the south. Rain from that system is likely in the Red River Valley in the U.S., but it’s not expected to cross the border into Manitoba.
Saturday and Sunday
Peace Region
The weekend stays mild and dry. Afternoons reach about 2 to 6 degrees both days, with partly cloudy skies on Saturday and a mix of sun and cloud on Sunday. Overnight lows fall to minus 3 to minus 8. A Pacific low spins up offshore, and it stays west of the Rockies, so no precipitation is expected. You can plan on a good window for hauling feed, checking bale yards and servicing equipment.
Alberta
Saturday is mild and mainly sunny, with afternoons around 5 to 10 degrees. Cloud begins to increase in the west late in the day as another Pacific low develops offshore. Most of that moisture stays in coastal and high-elevation British Columbia. Sunday brings more high cloud across the province, with afternoons around 4 to 9 degrees. The ridge steers the next Pacific low to the south and west, so dry weather continues. That said, we can’t rule out rain between Coronation and Wood Buffalo along the Saskatchewan boundary Sunday afternoon. There is considerable uncertainty, and we’ll have a better grasp of the situation in our Thursday update.
Saskatchewan
Dry and mild both days. Saturday brings a mix of sun and cloud, with afternoons around the mid double digits and overnight lows near minus 3 to minus 7. Sunday is similar, with afternoons in the low to mid teens and clouds thickening late in the day in the west. No precipitation is expected. This is a quiet stretch for finishing fall field work or moving the last of your grain. Take advantage of it, as there is a chance of returning to wetter weather as soon as Monday.
Manitoba
Dry and mild over the weekend, with afternoons around 3 to 8 degrees both days. Saturday brings a touch more cloud in the southeast, and the chance of any meaningful precipitation stays low. Sunday is dry, with light winds and a quiet finish to the week. Mild, dry weather like this extends fall grazing on cured pasture and stubble, which can stretch your hay supply.
