Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Dry and extremely warm weather this week across the prairies. Some records may be challenged.
An unusually mild November pattern is expected to continue across much of the Canadian Prairies over the next week, although the warmth will not be shared equally across the region. Southern Alberta and Saskatchewan are in line for some remarkably high temperatures for the middle of November, while Manitoba will experience a much sharper cooldown around Remembrance Day. The Peace Region and parts of northern Alberta and Saskatchewan will be cooler, with a few opportunities for precipitation.
For most of the agricultural Prairies, however, the dominant weather feature will be a lack of precipitation. A ridge of high pressure is expected to remain influential across western and central Canada, helping keep the main storm track to the south. That should mean plenty of dry weather and, in southern Alberta in particular, temperatures more typical of early autumn than the middle of November.
The map shows expected precipitation up until Sunday evening, and for the main agricultural areas of the prairies, it looks like there will be none:
Monday
Peace Region
Expect a mix of sun and cloud, with daytime temperatures generally reaching 4 to 6 degrees. Overnight temperatures will be close to or below freezing. Conditions should be relatively quiet, although cloud cover may increase at times early in the day, coming into the region from a strong Low pressure system off the coast of the Alaska Panhandle. By the afternoon, there will be a return to a clear sky.
Alberta
Temperatures should climb into the low double digits, 10 to 13 degrees. That is already well above the seasonal average for early November. Central Alberta will be cooler, with highs generally between 8 and 10, while northern Alberta will see temperatures closer to 4 to 7. The northern areas will also have a greater chance of cloud and scattered precipitation.
Saskatchewan
The south should enjoy a relatively mild day, with temperatures reaching 12 to 13 degrees in many areas. Central Saskatchewan will be somewhat cooler, with highs generally between 7 and 11. Farther north, temperatures will be lower, with some areas struggling to get much above the freezing mark. Any precipitation should be mainly confined to the northern part of the province.
Manitoba
The week begins with mild weather Southern Manitoba may have the warmest weather in the country on Monday. Expect daytime highs in the 12 to 14 degree range in the south, while central areas should reach approximately 9 to 11 degrees. Northern Manitoba will be cooler, with temperatures generally between 3 and 7. The southern agricultural region should remain mainly dry.
Tuesday
Peace Region
A weak disturbance will bring a mix of cloud and occasional showers into the BC Peace, though it should remain dry on the Alberta side. Daytime temperatures will reach 4 to 6 degrees. The precipitation signal is not particularly strong, and any showers should be relatively limited. Overnight temperatures will again be near or below freezing.
Alberta
Tuesday gets even warmer with highs generally between 12 and 15 degrees in the south. Central Alberta will be cooler, with temperatures mostly in the 6 to 8 degree range. Across northern Alberta, daytime highs should generally reach 4 to 6 degrees. Agricultural regions of Alberta will stay dry and mainly sunny Tuesday, under a ridge of high pressure.
Saskatchewan
Temperatures in Saskatchewan Tuesday will be more variable. Southern areas should see highs around 9 to 10 degrees, while central regions will generally reach 6 to 10. Farther north, temperatures will range from near freezing to around 6. A few flurries may occur in the far north, east of Wollaston Lake, but most of the province should remain dry.
Manitoba
It’s another mild day for Manitoba on Tuesday, although temperatures will begin to trend downward. Southern Manitoba should see highs between 9 and 12 degrees, with central areas reaching approximately 7 to 9. Northern Manitoba will be cooler, with temperatures generally between 2 and 7 degrees. Snow showers and flurries can be expected north of the lakes, though the rest of the province will stay dry with a mix of sun and cloud. The more noticeable change is still ahead, particularly across the southern part of the province.
Wednesday, Remembrance Day
Peace Region
It’s another quiet weather day for the Peace Region with a mix of sun and cloud and daytime temperatures generally reaching 7 to 9 degrees. There will be stormy weather to the west in BC, and to the north, near the Northwest Territories boundary, but that activity is not expected to reach the Peace. Conditions stay favourable for outdoor activities, although overnight temperatures will remain chilly.
Alberta
The warm up becomes particularly noticeable on Remembrance Day. Daytime highs in southern Alberta should range from approximately 14 to 17 degrees, with some locations potentially approaching the upper end of that range. Calgary is forecast to reach 17, compared with a normal early-November daytime high of about 4. Central Alberta will also be warm, with highs generally between 11 and 15 degrees. Northern Alberta should see temperatures between 8 and 12 degrees. Wind will be a concern in southern Alberta, especially in areas shaded in blue and purple in the map below:
Saskatchewan
Southern areas of Saskatchewan will have a warm Remembrance Day, with highs of approximately 11 to 14 degrees, while central regions will generally see highs between 8 and 11. Northern Saskatchewan will be cooler, with temperatures ranging from near freezing to around 5 degrees. The difference between southern and northern Saskatchewan will be noticeable, but the overall pattern will remain relatively mild for the time of year.
Manitoba
Manitoba is an exception to the warmth elsewhere on the prairies. A much cooler air mass will move into the province, bringing a sharp drop in temperatures. Southern Manitoba should see daytime highs of only 2 to 5 degrees in the mid-afternoon, while central areas will generally remain close to freezing, with highs around 0 to 3. Northern Manitoba will be colder still, with temperatures ranging from approximately -3 to +3.
The cooldown will be a reminder that the mild pattern is not uniform across the Prairies. While southern Alberta will be enjoying temperatures more typical of September, parts of Manitoba will be dealing with conditions much closer to what we would expect in November.
Thursday
Peace Region
The quiet weather pattern continues for the Peace Region. Expect a mix of sun and cloud, with highs generally between 5 and 9 degrees. The risk of significant precipitation is close to zero, and conditions should remain relatively settled.
Alberta
Afternoon temperatures could reach 15 to 19 degrees, making this one of the warmest days of the period. Calgary should reach approximately 17 degrees with even warmer weather south of the Trans Canada highway. Central Alberta should see highs between 12 and 16. Northern Alberta will be cooler, with temperatures generally ranging from 8 to 12 degrees. Even in the north, however, temperatures will be extraordinarily mild for the middle of November.
Saskatchewan
It will also remain incredibly warm in Saskatchewan, with some areas having a shot at reaching 20 degrees! In November! Southwestern areas could reach 18 to 21 degrees, with the highest temperatures likely in the southwest. Central areas will generally see highs between 11 and 16 degrees. Northern Saskatchewan will be cooler, with temperatures ranging from approximately 4 to 9. The contrast between the southwest and the north will be considerable.
Manitoba
While Alberta and Saskatchewan could almost be mistaken for Florida (exaggeration), Manitoba remains cool, particularly in the southern and central regions. Southern Manitoba should see highs around 2 to 5 degrees – cooler east of the Red River. Central areas may reach 3 to 7 degrees. Northern Manitoba will be somewhat milder, with highs generally between 3 and 5. The temperature pattern will be quite different from what is expected farther west.
Friday
Peace Region
It’s a bit cooler on Friday, as temperatures should generally range from 2 to 7 degrees. There may be more cloud than earlier in the week, and scattered showers are possible, but there is no strong signal for widespread or significant precipitation.
Alberta
Highs should generally reach 10 to 15 degrees, perhaps even warmer near Brooks, Medicine Hat and Oyen. That is cooler than the remarkable temperatures expected Wednesday and Thursday, but still comfortably above the seasonal average. Central Alberta should see temperatures between 7 and 10, while northern areas will be cooler, with highs generally ranging from 2 to 6. The wind could be quite strong in those warmer areas of southeastern Alberta, as shown on the map below:
Saskatchewan
It’s another relatively mild day for Saskatchewan. Southern areas can expect highs between 15 and 17 degrees, while central regions should see temperatures in the 11 to 14 degree range. Northern Saskatchewan will be considerably cooler, with temperatures ranging from near freezing to around 9. No precipitation is expected anywhere in the province on Friday.
Manitoba
After a day or two of slightly cooler weather, temperatures will climb again. Southern areas should see highs around 8 to 9°C, while central regions may reach 7 to 12°C. Northern Manitoba should see temperatures near 5°C. The improvement will be welcome after the colder conditions earlier in the week, although temperatures will remain below those expected across much of Alberta and Saskatchewan.
Saturday and Sunday
The mild, generally dry pattern should continue across much of the agricultural Prairies through the weekend, although temperatures will be trending downward in parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan. Manitoba should enjoy relatively comfortable conditions compared with the midweek cooldown.
Peace Region
Expect a mix of sun and cloud over the weekend, with daytime temperatures generally ranging from 4 to 7 degrees. Conditions should remain relatively quiet, with no strong indication of significant precipitation. That said, we’ll be watching for the formation of a weak low in the Peace on Sunday. If it does develop, there is a chance for a few showers or flurries. We’ll have much more clarity about this in the Thursday mid-week update. Overnight temperatures will remain close to or below freezing.
Alberta
Daytime highs should generally range from 8 to 12 degrees. Central Alberta will be cooler, with temperatures between 5 and 8, while northern areas should see highs from approximately 1 to 7. The exceptionally warm conditions of Wednesday and Thursday will have eased, but temperatures should remain relatively mild for mid-November. Most areas should stay dry.
Saskatchewan
The warm spell continues over the weekend in Saskatchewan. Southern areas can expect daytime highs around 12 to 14, while central regions should see temperatures between 9 and 11. Northern Saskatchewan will be cooler, with highs generally ranging from 1 to 8. The province should remain dry through the weekend.
Manitoba
Mild weather continues through the weekend in Manitoba. Southern areas can expect highs between 9 and 11, with central regions generally reaching 8 to 12. Northern Manitoba will be cooler, with temperatures ranging from approximately 4 to 8. There is nothing to indicate the weekend will be anything but sunny and dry.
What does this mean for agriculture?
For much of the agricultural Prairies, the next week should provide a continuation of the dry, mild conditions that have characterized much of the fall. With harvest virtually complete in Alberta and Saskatchewan, the immediate concern is less about getting machinery into fields and more about moisture conditions, winter preparation and the implications of another stretch without meaningful precipitation.
EVENT FORECAST
Agri-Trade, November 11 to 13, Red Deer, AB (Rural Roots Canada will be in attendance.. DM us on social media for a meet-up!)
November 11 – Mainly cloudy, high 18
November 12 – Mainly sunny, high 19
November 13 – A mix of sun and cloud, high 15
COMPARE: Prairie Weather This Week – Midweek Update November 5
