Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – A mild November weekend for the Prairies. The forecast includes Peace Country showers and strong Alberta winds.
November is delivering a welcome surprise across much of the Prairies. An upper-level ridge of high pressure will keep most agricultural regions mild and dry through the weekend, with temperatures climbing well above seasonal averages in parts of southern Alberta and Saskatchewan.
Some locations could see afternoon highs in the 13 to 17 degree range by Saturday and Sunday. That’s a pretty impressive stretch of November weather, especially for producers looking to finish remaining fall work before winter settles in.
However, there are a few exceptions to the otherwise pleasant outlook.
Strong west winds will be a concern across southern Alberta, particularly around Lethbridge, where gusts could reach 70 km/h Thursday. Meanwhile, the Peace Country in northeastern British Columbia and northwestern Alberta faces a chance of showers as early as Friday. That is worth watching, particularly for producers still trying to get the last of the canola off the fields.
Farther east, Saskatchewan and Manitoba will enjoy improving conditions as lingering cloud cover clears. A couple of disturbances will move across the northern Prairies over the weekend and early next week, bringing more cloud and a chance of light precipitation. Most southern agricultural areas should remain dry.
The broader story is one of two very different weather patterns: unusually mild conditions across the southern agricultural Prairies, contrasted with more unsettled weather and ongoing moisture concerns in some northern regions.
For farmers and ranchers, this is an opportunity to take advantage of the remaining mild weather while continuing winter preparations.
The big picture: High pressure keeps most of the Prairies mild
A broad upper-level ridge extending across the Canadian Prairies and north-central United States will remain the dominant weather feature through the weekend.
An intense low-pressure system over the Gulf of Alaska is sending disturbances toward western Canada. However, the ridge is expected to deflect much of that energy toward the northern Prairies rather than allowing it to move across the main agricultural regions.
At the surface, high pressure extends across Saskatchewan and Manitoba, while a developing low over northeastern British Columbia and southern Yukon is contributing to stronger winds across parts of Alberta.
The result is considerable sunshine and above-seasonal temperatures across much of the southern Prairies.
Patchy fog remains possible overnight and in the early morning hours, particularly across eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, where recent precipitation has left additional moisture near the surface.
Second, despite the mild afternoons, overnight temperatures will still fall to freezing or below in several regions. The strongest frost signal is in the BC Peace, northern Alberta and northern Manitoba, particularly Sunday night into Monday.
Thursday
Peace Region
Thursday is relatively pleasant, with sunshine and afternoon highs close to 10 degrees. No significant weather is expected. For producers still dealing with as-yet unharvested canola, Thursday offers the best immediate opportunity to get outside and complete remaining work before possible showers on Friday.
Alberta
Southern Alberta will be warm and mostly sunny with Chinook cloud, but strong Chinook wind will develop in some areas. Temperatures in the region will reach the low teens, with west winds increasing to 50 km/h and gusts potentially reaching 70 km/h around midday. In south central Alberta, temperatures will also reach double digits, with wind gusts to about 40 km/h. Central Alberta will also enjoy relatively mild conditions, with highs generally in the upper single digits to low teens. Northern Alberta should also see highs in the low double digits. Winds will be stronger in some exposed locations, particularly around Grande Prairie and Slave Lake, where gusts could approach 70 km/h.
Saskatchewan
High pressure will bring improving conditions across Saskatchewan, although some cloud cover may linger. Southern and central areas should see a good deal of sunshine, with highs generally reaching the high single digits, close to 10. Northern Saskatchewan will be somewhat cooler, but conditions should remain relatively quiet.
Manitoba
Manitoba is gradually moving away from the cloudier conditions associated with the recent weather system. Clearing should continue through the day, although some areas could remain cloudy longer than others. By mid-to-late afternoon, most areas will be under bright sunshine. Southern Manitoba should see highs around 5 degrees, with cooler conditions farther north. Patchy fog is possible overnight, particularly in areas that received recent rainfall.
Friday
Peace Region
Friday brings the first significant change in the weather pattern for the Peace Country. Cloud cover will increase, with showers possible across northeastern British Columbia. In BC, Fort St. John and Dawson Creek are likely to see showers. On the Alberta side, afternoon showers are likely throughout the Peace Region, including Grande Prairie and Peace River. Temperatures will remain relatively mild, with highs near 10, although the showers are expected to be light. The timing is important. Some producers in the Alberta and BC Peace are still working through the final stages of harvest. Overnight temperatures will fall, although the more significant frost risk arrives later in the weekend.
Alberta
Southern Alberta will remain warm and mostly sunny, although strong west winds will continue to be a concern, especially in the south. There, the Chinook wind will push temperatures back up to the mid-teens with west winds around 40 km/h and gusts approaching 60 km/h. Temperatures in the low teens are expected in south central Alberta. Central Alberta should remain mainly dry, with highs in the upper single digits to low teens.
Saskatchewan
Friday looks particularly nice across Saskatchewan. The upper-level ridge will continue providing mostly sunny skies and dry conditions across the main agricultural regions. Southern and central areas should see highs in the 9 to 12 degree range. Northern Saskatchewan will be cooler, but there is little indication of significant precipitation.
Manitoba
Manitoba should also see a noticeable improvement, with more sunshine and rising temperatures. Southern areas will generally reach 7 to 10 degrees, which is extraordinarily warm for Manitoba in November. Warmth in the north, too, with highs in the 7 to 8 degree range. Lingering cloud cover should become less of a factor, although patchy overnight fog remains possible.
Saturday
Peace Region
Saturday should be a little cooler, but still warm for November. Expect highs in the mid to high single digits. Conditions are expected to become more settled following Friday’s showers; however, there is another chance of showers in the Dawson Creek area Saturday night. The more important development will be the approaching cooler air. Overnight temperatures will drop below freezing again by Sunday night.
Alberta
Saturday will bring a noticeable difference between northern and southern Alberta. The first disturbance coming out of the Gulf of Alaska is expected to move into far northern Alberta, bringing increasing cloud cover and a chance of light precipitation in the morning across northern Alberta. Southern and central Alberta will not be affected. In fact, the southern part of the province could see some of the highest temperatures of the weekend. Expect temperatures to climb to the 13-16 degree range across southern regions Saturday afternoon. Central Alberta should also enjoy relatively mild conditions, with sunshine and highs generally in the upper single digits to low teens.
Saskatchewan
Saturday looks like the beginning of a particularly mild weekend across southern and central Saskatchewan. The northern disturbance will track eastward from Alberta, bringing increasing cloud cover and a chance of light precipitation to northern areas. The main agricultural belt should remain dry. Highs across southern and central Saskatchewan should generally reach the 13 to 16 degree range.
Manitoba
Southern Manitoba should enjoy a sunny and unusually mild Saturday. Highs around 11 to 13 degrees are expected. Farther north, it will be cooler, but still quite warm compared to long-term averages. The Pas could reach 11 degrees on Saturday. The long-term average high is about -2. Cloud cover will gradually increase across northern areas as the disturbance moves eastward, although significant precipitation is not expected during the day.
Sunday
Peace Region
Sunday will wind up being a bit cooler, but still above average, with highs around 7 to 9 degrees. A low-pressure system off the northern BC coast will come ashore and spread cloud and precipitation eastward. It’s possible some of that moisture may reach the Dawson Creek area, but it is unlikely to push further east. The bigger concern will be overnight temperatures as they continue to drop below the freezing point. That will make frost an important consideration for livestock producers and anyone with remaining outdoor work.
Alberta
Southern Alberta should enjoy another very pleasant day, with sunshine and highs in the low to mid teens. The warmth will extend through central Alberta as well. It’s a bit of a different story up north. Northern Alberta will see some lingering cloud cover as the first disturbance moves farther east. The next disturbance is already developing farther west and will bring another round of unsettled weather into northern Alberta early next week.
Saskatchewan
Sunday could be the warmest day in this outlook across parts of southern Saskatchewan. Highs in the mid-teens are possible, as shown on the map below:
The northern part of the province will see more cloud cover and a chance of light precipitation as the disturbance tracks eastward. Southern and central agricultural areas should remain largely dry.
Manitoba
Southern Manitoba should continue to enjoy relatively mild conditions, with highs in the 10-12 degree range. Farther north, temperatures will be considerably cooler, but still well above average. The main concern will be Sunday night, when a 60% chance of rain showers or flurries is forecast around The Pas. With temperatures close to freezing, precipitation type could vary. There is no indication of a significant accumulating snowfall event. For Manitoba producers, the remaining late-season corn harvest is worth mentioning. The province’s seasonal report indicated that grain corn harvest was only 48% complete and silage corn 87% complete at the end of the reporting period. The mild, dry weather across southern Manitoba should help those operations continue.
EVENT FORECASTS:
Gathering Ground, November 7, Evansburg, Alberta
November 7 – Mainly sunny, light wind, high 9
