A tornado, updated drought monitory, and the forecast for the week ahead…..

Rolling Hills Tornado

A week of generally quiet weather is ahead, after a very active weekend across the prairies.   Canada’s first tornado of 2025 happened Saturday afternoon near the hamlet of Rolling Hills, in southeastern Alberta.   It was a landspout tornado, the kind that spins up from the ground, rather than descending from a cloud…

 

About 7 hours after the event, Environment Canada issued it’s confirmation.

 

As noted, the tornado was given the lowest classification.   Tornadoes are classified according to the damage they do, and since this happened in an open field, and did no damage to persons or property, it has been rated EF0.

In addition to the extreme weather in southern Alberta,  there was rain and snow Sunday in southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba as a disturbance worked its way eastward along the international border.    The moisture was welcome and beneficial, as it fell over areas reclassified into drought status.

 

Canadian Drought Monitor

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada has released an update to the Canadian Drought Monitor, and it has many surprises.    The map below shows conditions as of March 31, and despite an abundance of precipitation across parts of Alberta, the drought situation there actually worsened.   In Saskatchewan,  March was quite dry,  and a storm late in the month wasn’t enough to alleviate the abnormal dryness.    Drought conditions expanded in southern Manitoba, due to limited precipitation…

The map shows southwestern Alberta in severe drought.  This includes farms, pastures, and foothills west of Calgary and south to the US border.   There was ample moisture in the area in March, however, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada says the drought actually worsened due to “significant long-term deficits and concern over low snowpack, reduced streamflow and low runoff potential in the region”.   The agency noted that reservoirs in southern Alberta are at very low levels, which also contributes to the expansion of the drought declaration.

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada says 32 percent of the agricultural land across the prairies is considered to be abnormally dry or in drought.

You can find the full Canadian Drought Monitor here:   Canadian Drought Monitor

The Week Ahead

As field preparation and planting begin, expect a return to warmer and drier than average weather across agricultural prairie land this week.   There will be significant precipitation in the northern prairies this week, mostly in the boreal forest.  Below, the map on the left shows above average temperatures expected this week across the prairies.   The map on the right shows drier than average conditions.

 

Monday

Alberta

A southwest wind and a mainly sunny sky for all of Alberta will ensure another dry day across the province.    For all intents and purposes, chinook conditions will develop, meaning slightly lower air pressure on the east side of the Rockies will draw in mild Pacific air.   The day should be mainly sunny, with a chinook arch developing overnight and into Tuesday morning.    With the warm air coming across the mountains, expect highs in southern Alberta to reach the high teens.   Elsewhere, in northern and southeastern Alberta, temperatures will peak in the lower double digits.

Saskatchewan

Mild Pacific air comes into western Saskatchewan from Alberta, and most areas in the western half of the province will warm to the double digits.   Single digit highs will re reached elsewhere.  After a few morning sprinkles in southeastern Saskatchewan, it will be a dry day across the entire province.

Manitoba

Early in the morning, expect rain along the Saskatchewan boundary south of Dauphin, snow over Lake Winnipegosis, and along the Ontario boundary.   As the day goes on, the precipitation will taper off, and the sky will clear as high pressure strengthens along the Montana – North Dakota border south of Saskatchewan.    The wind will come from the northwest, so, as can be expected, it will be chilly.   Highs in Manitoba will range from 0 to +5.

 

Tuesday

Alberta

A cold front will sweep across Alberta on Tuesday.   The front comes out of a Low pressure system in the northwest Territories.  As the low moves across the Territory just north of the Alberta boundary, it drags the front through Alberta, bringing  wetter weather.   The front reaches northwestern Alberta in time for breakfast, spreading rain showers across the northern third of Alberta.   Around noon, the Low becomes stronger and the rain intensifies along the NWT border.   And by the afternoon, as the front sweeps through central Alberta, it will kick off some rain from Calgary west into the foothills and mountains.   Snow will develop in the higher elevations around Banff and Canmore.   By evening, the rain spreads eastward along and just north of the Trans Canada highway into Saskatchewan.    Unfortunately, areas south of the Trans Canada Highway will likely miss out on this beneficial moisture.   The front’s major effect will be the moisture, as there will be little change in temperature.   Expect highs of 10 to 18 degrees from Edmonton south.   North of Edmonton, highs will be in the range of 5-10 degrees.

Saskatchewan

While rain and snow develop across northern Saskatchewan, central regions and southern portions of the province will stay dry.   Agricultural regions will be left out of the moisture, though bands of cloud will cross the province during the day.   West of Regina, temperatures in southern and western Saskatchewan will reach highs between 15 and 20 degrees.   East of Regina, it will be cooler, with highs between 10 and 15.

Manitoba

It will be a dry day in Manitoba, and slightly warmer than Monday.   A southeasterly wind will bring in some relatively warm air, and highs in the southern half of the province will climb to between 5 and 10 degrees.   To the north, it will be cooler, and it’s likely temperatures north of Gillam will remain below the freezing point.    Most of Manitoba will be sunny Tuesday, though there will be some cloud cover near the Saskatchewan boundary.

 

Wednesday

Alberta

Some snow flurries are likely to develop northwest of Edmonton in the early morning, then work their way south along the foothills, and into the Calgary area by noon.   The moisture is wrapping around a Low pressure system in central Saskatchewan, which will move into Manitoba by the afternoon.   The cool, moist air wrapping around that Low will be forced by the foothills to rise, generating the snowfall.    The snow over the foothills and mountains will continue all day, and change over to rain or a mix of rain and snow as it spreads eastward to Lethbridge and Medicine Hat and most areas south of the Trans Canada Highway.   It will be a cooler day, with highs near 5 degrees west of highway 2, and between 5 and 10 degrees to the east.

Saskatchewan

A low pressure system in northwestern Saskatchewan will drag a cold front across the province Wednesday.   Along the front, a smaller low will develop east of Saskatoon.  Along the front, expect some early morning rain.   Picture a diagonal line going from the southwest to northeast through Saskatoon.   Along that line is where morning rain can be expected.   Snow will continue to fall in the northern Saskatchewan forest.   The line of morning rain will become more intense as it enters central Manitoba by the end of the day.  Behind the front, and the rain, the wind shifts to the west, and the sky clears out in the afternoon.   Highs in southern and central Saskatchewan will range from 5 to 15 degrees.  In the north, expect highs from 0 to 5.

Manitoba

Early morning snow will blanket northwestern Manitoba, with rain heading in from Saskatchewan toward central Manitoba.   In the south, agricultural regions will stay dry Wednesday, and it will be warm, with highs from 10 to 20 degrees.   Wind may become an issue.   The Low producing the rain and snow in central Manitoba will strengthen, and may cause strong wind in the southern part of the province.   There’s a bit of uncertainty about that, but it’s something to watch.

Snow!

There is snow on the ground in southwestern Alberta, but it will disappear quickly.   In this highway webcam shot near Cowley on Thursday morning,  the snow left on the ground by a disturbance on Wednesday April 16, will quickly disappear due to the mainly sunny conditions.    Some will melt and soak into the ground, some will evaporate.

 

Much of southwestern Alberta was under a snowfall warning Wednesday, and significant snow did fall in the region.   Here are some totals from Environment Canada:

 

The snowfall was badly needed, as the area is considered to be in severe drought.

 

Thursday

Alberta

A north wind attached to a weak disturbance will draw cooler air into southern regions from the north as the day goes on, and there may be some precipitation associated with the disturbance.  A mix of showers and flurries can be expected, with higher amounts over the foothills and mountains.   By late afternoon, the light precipitation will have tapered off everywhere east of the Rockies, and the sky will clear out over most of the province.     There will be a chill in the air over the foothills, where highs may only reach 0, and east of the foothills, it will warm up to only 5-10 degrees.

Saskatchewan

Snow that has been falling for a few days in the northern forests will finally begin to taper off, and move into northern Manitoba.  In the afternoon, expect some beneficial rain showers in central and southern regions,  especially near the Manitoba boundary.    There will be a north wind all day across Saskatchewan,  so single digit highs can be expected in the southern half of the province, with subfreezing weather in the north.

Manitoba

Agricultural land across southern Manitoba will remain dry Thursday, but central and north central Manitoba could see extensive snow and rain.   A Low pressure system crosses central Manitoba during the day, with widespread moisture…most of it north of the lakes.   Circulation around the snow-producing Low will create a westerly wind in southern Manitoba, and the region will stay dry.   If the low is stronger than anticipated the wind across the south could be quite brisk.    Due to the passage of a cold front associated with the low, temperatures in southern Manitoba will be somewhat cooler, though there is a chance to reach 10-15 degree highs in the Red River Valley, and in the area between Lake Winnipeg and the Ontario boundary.

Friday

Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba

Other than some snow in Manitoba’s interlake, and south into the Winnipeg area, all three prairie provinces will be dry Friday.   Alberta will be sunny, with a mix of sun and cloud for Saskatchewan and Manitoba.   The map below shows expected temperatures in the late afternoon,  Manitoba remains cooler than average, while temperatures soar in Alberta:

Saturday

Alberta

An upper trough of Low pressure builds down from the northwest, spreading cloud over southern Alberta.   North of Edmonton, expect partly cloudy conditions.   At the surface, a cold front linked to an Arctic Low will drag some precipitation through Alberta during the day.   Rain can be expected in parts of south central Alberta,  and in the north, moving into southeastern Alberta in the evening.  The precipitation will cool the air, and highs of 5-10 degrees can be expected.    In southeastern Alberta, it will stay dry and warmer, with highs of 15-20 degrees.

Saskatchewan

It will be a mainly sunny day across most of Saskatchewan, but int he afternoon, cloud will move in from the northwest as a cold front approaches.   By late afternoon, there will be some rainfall ahead of the front, in areas west of Saskatoon.  Northern Saskatchewan will also experience some late afternoon rainfall.   In the evening, rain is expected in southwestern Saskatchewan from Swift Current north to Rosetown.   While all this happens in the southwest, southeastern Saskatchewan is expected to remain sunny into the evening, and stay clear into the early hours of Sunday morning.    Before the active weather arrives, temperatures should peak between 10 and 20 degrees across southern and central Saskatchewan.

Manitoba

West of Winnipeg, highs will reach 10-15  degrees, in the Red River Valley and to the east, it will be cooler, with highs of 5-10 degrees.   It will be sunny across the southern half of Manitoba, thanks to two connected areas of high pressure….one centered in Minnesota, the other in northern Ontario.   The only precipitation expected in the province on Saturday will fall in the form of rain or snow over the northern permafrost, well away from agricultural areas.

Sunday

On Easter Sunday, the further east you go, the warmer it will be.   While parts of Alberta will get snow, southern Manitoba could reach highs in the mid 20s.

Alberta

The Easter Bunny and other wildlife in southern Alberta may be seeking shelter from some rain, expected to fall early in the morning, especially west of highway 2.   Higher elevations will likely receive snowfall.  The precipitation will continue throughout the day.  East of highway 2, it will likely remain dry, though there will be considerable cloud cover.   The clouds will suppress temperatures,  and highs are likely to reach only the low double digits at best.   It will be even cooler in the rain and snow west of highway 2,  as temperatures may only reach highs of 5,  and may even remain below zero over the higher terrain in the foothills and mountains.

Saskatchewan

It’ll be a warm Easter Sunday in most of Saskatchewan where temperatures will rise to the mid teens.  A weak disturbance will cause a narrow band of showers to move across the province in the afternoon.   The sky across Saskatchewan will be partly cloudy in most areas most of the day.   The rainfall will be of short duration, and accumulations won’t be particularly meaningful.

Manitoba

Sunday’s weather in Mantioba will be extraordinarily warm.   In the afternoon some rain or mixed precipitation will fall in northern regions, where it will be chilly.   In the south, though, with sunshine, most areas will warm up to 15 to 20 degrees,  with some pockets of warmth near Carman, where temperatures could hit the mid twenties.

 

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