Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – A wet week ahead, as the prairies cope with drought.

Wet weather this week!  According to the Canadian Drought Monitor, 32 percent of prairie agricultural land in Canada is either abnormally dry or in drought.  That may change this week, as a series of weather systems will cross the southern prairies, bringing rain and snow to the region.    The map below shows the percentage of normal soil moisture across the region, with several dry areas of concern circled in red:

 

In the circled areas, soil moisture is less than 60 percent of average.   Rain and snow will fall on these regions this week, and while it probably won’t be enough to erase the drought, the moisture will be beneficial as planting season begins.

As the map below shows, precipitation amounts in some areas this week will be impressive.  The map shows precipitation accumulation up until the evening of Sunday, April 27.

 

30-40 mm of rain and snow could fall this week in the Alberta foothills, in south central Alberta east of Calgary,  and in southeastern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba.    If you compare the two maps above, must of the heaviest rainfall will occur right where it’s needed – over some of the driest land in the three prairie provinces.

We’ve already had several thunderstorms on the prairies, and more are expected this week.   Thanks to Jeff Adams for this photo of a shelf cloud that rolled through Red Deer on Saturday, April 19:

 

Monday

Alberta

A developing low in southern Alberta will bring accumulating snow to the foothills, with the heaviest amounts expected to fall between Calgary and Rocky Mountain House.   10 to 20 cm are possible in this area, and ECCC has issued snowfall warnings.    The low itself will be centered just east of Calgary, and close to that low centre, expect rain.   The rain may be locally heavy with convection and thunderstorms possible.   The system will move east, but the rain and snow will linger through most of the day in southern and central Alberta.    The rain will gradually move south, arriving in Claresholm, Fort Macleod, Lethbridge, Taber, Bow Island and Medicine Hat in the late afternoon, if not sooner.    This is all meaningful moisture, much of it falling in areas considered to be in drought.   In northern and southeastern Alberta, highs will range from 10-15 degrees, but it will be cooler in the rain and snow in central Alberta, with highs ranging from 0 to 5.

Saskatchewan

The Low that produces rain and snow in southern Alberta drifts east, and organized rainfall and thunderstorms will kick off in southwestern Saskatchewan Monday.   As the system continues to move east, the rainfall will spread into southeastern Saskatchewan in the evening.  A low pressure system in the US will move north, and strengthen the rainfall.   Then, as colder air moves in, the rain showers will turn to snow overnight.   Because of instability there may be pockets of heavier rain and snow fall in southern Saskatchewan during the afternoon and evening.    Temperatures will have a chance to climb to the low double digits before the rain arrives.

Manitoba

Manitoba will have a dry Monday, with the precipitation out west not arriving until Tuesday.   Highs near 20 will be possible in the Red River Valley, with temperatures peaking in the high teens elsewhere over the agricultural south.

 

Tuesday

Alberta

As the Low that produced Monday’s precipitation moves east, most of Alberta will dry out, but remain rather cool with a northwesterly wind.   Snow and rain will linger along the Saskatchewan boundary through the midday and afternoon.   The rest of southern Alberta may experience some scattered afternoon showers and flurries,  after the main area of organized precipitation heads east.   This is due to a weak disturbance that develops near Fort McMurray in the afternoon, creating a weak cold front which will drag across central Alberta.  It will be one of those odd days when northern Alberta is warmer than the southern part of the province.   In the north, highs will range from 10 to 15 degrees, but only 5-10 degrees in the south.    Near Oyen and Coronation, where snowfall is expected, highs will be near zero.

Saskatchewan

By Tuesday, the weak Low pressure system that arrived from Alberta cedes its strength to a more powerful low moving into Manitoba’s Red River Valley from the United States.   Circulation around that Low will generate rain in southern Saskatchewan and snow along the Manitoba boundary.   It will be a wintry mix, with pockets of heavier precipitation.    In a line from Yorkton to Moosomin, there is a chance for 10 to 20 cm of snow.   In that area, temperatures will peak near zero.   Most of southern Saskatchewan will reach single digit highs, with slightly warmer conditions south of the Trans Canada highway and in northern and central regions.

Manitoba

As mentioned above, a low coming up from the US will dominate the weather in southern Manitoba, with at least 5-15 mm of rain expected in the Red River Valley.   By early evening, the low will be centered over Emerson/Pembina/Noyes, generating significant rain across southern Manitoba.   Near Riding Mountain, the rain will likely turn over to snow, with an injection of colder air from the northeast.    Because of this significant rainfall,  high temperatures in the area will be considerably cooler, peaking between 5 and 10 degrees.   Highs will be near or below zero at Riding Mountain, and just above zero elsewhere in central and northern Manitoba.

 

Wednesday

Alberta

Chilly morning!  Subfreezing temperatures can be expected in the early morning across most of Alberta.  North central regions may stay a bit milder.    In the afternoon though, it warms up nicely with highs across most of Alberta reaching 10 to 15 degrees.  Because of cold air aloft, expect some convective, isolated showers to pop up here and there across the province.   It’s impossible to say exactly where they will happen.   It’s like looking at a pot of water heating up on the stove and trying to predict where the first bubble will pop up as the water boils.   That said, because of higher terrain, rain or higher elevation snow are quite likely over the mountains, and rain is possible in the afternoon from Waterton through Milk River to Manyberries along the US border.

Saskatchewan

Drier conditions also return to Saskatchewan with high pressure building behind the system that produced the rain and snow earlier in the week.    The day may start with some flurries in southeastern Saskatchewan north of the Trans Canada Highway, but by the afternoon, they’ll have tapered off or moved east into Manitoba.    And those flurries will limit daytime highs to only about 5 degrees.   It will be warmer elsewhere in the province, with highs of 5-10 in the south, and 10-15 degrees in central Saskatchewan.

Manitoba

It will be a wet day across southern Manitoba, with a mix of rain and snow in the morning, changing over to rain as it warms up in the afternoon.   The rain will be confined to the southern 1/4 of the province, over most of Manitoba’s agricultural land.   Due to the wet weather, highs in western Manitoba will likely do no better than 5 degrees, but in the southeast, highs of 5-10 degrees are possible.  Cooler than average.

 

Thursday

 Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba

Expect a sunny, warm, and rather uneventful day across the prairies on Thursday.  Circulation around a Low in the Gulf of Alaska will drive mild air across Alberta and Saskatchewan from the south.  In Manitoba, a low that forms south of The Pas will generate a westerly wind across the southern part of the province.  The weather will be dry, with highs in the low teens. Most of Alberta and Saskatchewan will reach the mid to high teens.   High teen temperatures can bet expected north of Edmonton, in the Grande Prairie area, and just northeast of Saskatoon.      There will be no significant precipitation across the prairies on Thursday.

 

Friday

Alberta

A southerly wind brings more mild air into Alberta on Friday, and most of the province will remain under a clear, blue sky.   However, a Low pressure system forms in the BC Peace region, and that will spread moisture inro northwestern Alberta in the evening and overnight.   The rest of the province will stay dry and very warm, with high temperatures reaching the high teens or even the low 20s across Alberta.

Saskatchewan

Highs in the high teens will provide another warm day in Saskatchewan.   The wind will come from the south, and could be brisk.   There will be no significant precipitation.

Manitoba

Other than a bit of snow along the Hudson Bay coast, it will be a dry, and sunny day in Manitoba, with highs in the mid to high teens.   It will be a bit cooler (low teens), west of  MacGregor.

 

Saturday

Some of the warmest weather of the year so far will reach the prairies on the weekend.  Temperatures will rise to the low 20s in central Alberta and Saskatchewan on Saturday.   High pressure over the prairies keeps any disturbed weather well to the north, with perhaps a few showers in northern Saskatchewan, and snow north of the 60th parallel.  There is a chance of some freezing rain in the far northern regions of Manitoba.  For the agricultural areas of all three prairie provinces, there won’t be any significant moisture on Saturday.   A weak system will develop near Jasper in the afternoon, and may kick off some rain showers.   That precipitation will intensify and spread east overnight.    And while most of Alberta and Saskatchewan will be quite warm as earlier mentioned, Manitoba will be slightly cooler, with 20 degrees out of reach for most areas.

Sunday

Alberta

The disturbance that will develop in the Jasper area Saturday will intensify in the morning, bringing snow to the foothills between Nordegg and Grande Prairie.   The snow will weaken and change to rain as it warms up in the afternoon.  To the east, showers will develop north of Edmonton, and northeast to Cold Lake.  Those showers will continue into the early evening.  Meanwhile, back west, the moisture over the foothills will spread south to the US border, for the most part staying west of the Cowboy Trail.   The rain and snowfall will be enhanced over the higher terrain by circulation around a high pressure system in the Territories north of Saskatchewan.    Given its origin, this will be a circulation of cooler air, so temperatures will drop noticeably on Sunday, with highs between 5 and 10 degrees in central Alberta, and even cooler over the snowy and rainy areas of the foothills.   Away from the precipitation, southeastern Alberta will have another dry day with temperatures reaching the high teens or low twenties.

Saskatchewan

A Low pressure system in northern Manitoba will spawn a weak cold front that moves north to south across Saskatchewan on Sunday.   Central and northern regions should see some showers by midday,  and more showers will develop in the south in the afternoon, and continue overnight.  There will be an abundance of clouds, and the wind will generally come from the north.   While all this seems a recipe for cold weather,  highs in southern Saskatchewan are still expected to reach the mid to high teens, with cooler weather north of Saskatoon, on the north side of the cold front.

Manitoba

A Low pressure system and its trailing cold front will create some rain just  north of Lake Winnipeg, and snow in the northern third of the province.   In the agricultural south, expect another dry day with partly cloudy conditions.   Afternoon showers are possible in the Whiteshell.   West of the Red River, temperatures will climb into the mid to high teens,  with low teens expected east of the Red.

 

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