Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Could winter be finally over? The weather pattern flips and… no more snow??
Field work can resume across the agricultural prairies, with the return of dry weather this week. The map below shows snow for the northern prairies, mainly in the forested areas:
The map below is a bit different. It shows the overall precipitation of all types. And, for the most part, the southern prairies will stay dry. However, the map also shows some rain headed to southeastern Alberta, currently the region of the country’s worst drought:
Clearly, there won’t be a lot of rain in SE Alberta, only 5-10 mm, but it will still be somewhat beneficial.
This week, there will be genuine improvement, with no major disturbances expected across the prairies.
Monday
Peace Region
A welcome improvement after a cloudy, cold weekend. There will be a large difference between daytime highs and overnight lows – something called diurnal variation. Highs near 10, and lows near -6. That’s a sharp drop after dark, so watch for any rapidly developing ice or frost on moist ground. If you haven’t started any pre-seeding fieldwork yet, soils may begin to dry and firm up on Monday.
Alberta
The northerly flow eases and skies clear across most of Alberta. After cloudy and cold conditions through the weekend, Monday brings sunshine, with temperatures still below but closer to long-term averages. Highs across central Alberta should reach 8°C to 11°C. Southern areas may stay slightly cooler if cloud lingers. Overnight lows will drop hard, likely -5°C to -8°C under clear skies. Frost overnight is certain.
Saskatchewan
The low pressure exits, and the change is dramatic. Wintry weather is replaced by something a bit more seasonal, with sunshine on Monday, with highs across southern and central regions of 5°C and a clear overnight low of -10°C. That overnight low is sharp, so any early seeding on lighter soils faces frost risk. Hold off on seeding until the overnight lows moderate later in the week.
Manitoba
The low in northern Manitoba begins to pull away. Snow from the low is now in the far northern part of the province, leaving the south dry. While there isn’t much snow left on the ground in agricultural regions, most of the heavy clay soils in the Red River Valley and Interlake will still be too soft for field work. Wait for a few dry days before assessing. Highs in southern Manitoba will be near 7 or 8 degrees, and it will be a few degrees cooler in the Interlake. It will be milder in Manitoba overnight, compared to the rest of the prairies, as temperatures drop to only -2 or -3.
Tuesday
Peace Region
Another solid day in the Peace. Tuesday, warmth returns with the sunshine, as highs reach 11 to 13 degrees. The frost risk at night remains, but temperatures will drop only a couple of degrees below the freezing point. Daytime conditions are the best of the week for field assessments, checking fence lines, or any early yard work. Soil temperatures at 5 cm depth will be worth monitoring this week.
Alberta
Sunny to mainly sunny across the province. Temperatures climb a notch, with highs of 10 to 14 degrees possible in central and southern areas. Clear overnight lows drop to a range of -2 to -5. Two consecutive nights of hard frost will keep germination risk high, but daytime conditions are dry and improving. Central and southern Alberta are heading into this growing season with limited subsoil moisture, so don’t read too much into surface drying yet. Check soil moisture at depth before committing to seeding.
Saskatchewan
Gradual warming continues in southern Saskatchewan, with highs of 7 to 10 degrees – seasonably cool. But conditions are improving quickly. The overnight freeze remains a concern, as temperatures will drop to the -4 to -6 degree range across southern and central Saskatchewan. It may be a degree or two cooler in the southeast. Lighter-textured soils in west-central Saskatchewan may begin to look inviting for early field passes. Soil temperature at 5 cm depth needs to reach at least 5°C consistently before seeding canola.
Manitoba
In southern Manitoba, the turnaround is faster than was earlier thought. Drying accelerates Tuesday across much of southern Manitoba, though heavy clay areas need more time. Light-textured areas near Portage la Prairie may start to firm up by mid-week. It will be a mainly sunny day across southern Manitoba. South of the Trans-Canada Highway, temperatures could take a run at 10 degrees. Elsewhere, expect highs in the mid single digits. And, overnight frost will continue, with lows between -3 and -6.
Wednesday
Peace Region
The sky stays sunny, and temperatures continue to climb. Highs as warm as 18 can be expected in Grande Prairie and Dawson Creek. And with lows near +1 or 2, the overnight frost risk does not disappear, but eases considerably compared to the start of the week. Low-lying areas will still be susceptible to frost. A good day for field scouting and equipment checks ahead of what looks like a genuine seeding window opening later this week.
Alberta
It’s another sunny day with temperatures pushing into the mid-teens across the south. Closer to Edmonton, area highs of 10 to 13 are reasonable. A Pacific trough and its associated storm system begin to approach the region late Wednesday or into Thursday. Watch for some patchy cloud toward evening in the west. Overnight lows near -2 to -4 in most areas.
Saskatchewan
It will be another quiet day for weather in Saskatchewan. Temperatures are climbing steadily. Soils that were frozen hard over the weekend are now cycling through freeze-thaw daily. That can leave you with a deceptively soft surface over still-frozen subsoil in some areas. With a few afternoon clouds across southern Saskatchewan, daytime highs will reach 11 to 13 degrees, with single-digit highs in the northern part of the province. Overnight lows will drop to the -3 to -5 degree range across the province.
Manitoba
Steady, if modest, improvement continues in Manitoba’s weather. Fields that had adequate drainage should be firming up on lighter soils by now. The southern Red River Valley clays may take several more days of drying wind and sun before they’re ready. It will be a quiet weather day with sunshine and highs in the south reaching the 7 to 10 degree range, falling to -2 to -4 overnight all across the province. At this time of year, the gap in overnight temperatures between northern and southern Manitoba closes.
Thursday
Peace Region
The warming trend continues in the region, with an honest shot at reaching 20 degrees, especially around Grande Prairie. Elsewhere in the Peace, temperatures will climb to the high teens. A very weak low-pressure system will develop to the north, and if it forms a bit further south than forecast, there may be some afternoon cloud in the region, along with a risk of light precipitation. It is an unlikely scenario, but one worth watching as the week progresses. Temperatures in the Peace Region are expected to stay above zero Thursday night.
Alberta
The week of sunshine continues across Alberta. The wind will be light and warm, with highs in the high teens in most areas. Along and east of the foothills from Edson to Grande Prairie, expect temperatures to climb above 20 degrees. For some locations, this will be the first 20-degree reading of the season. No significant precipitation is expected, though some cloud cover will develop in the afternoon in the northeastern part of the province.
Saskatchewan
On a rather unremarkable day with light wind and plenty of sunshine, something does stand out in Thursday’s forecast for Saskatchewan. Overnight lows will stay above freezing in most agricultural areas for the first time this season, and that’s significant. Soil temperatures will respond. Southern Saskatchewan may be the best-positioned region on the Prairies for early seeding in this window. Spring wheat and barley on lighter soils are worth considering by Thursday if conditions verify. In the afternoon, highs in southern Saskatchewan will reach the mid to high teens.
Manitoba
Still cold overnight in Manitoba with sub-zero lows across the province, but daytime conditions continue to slowly improve with highs between 8 and 11 degrees. Though still cooler than average, the weather will be uneventful with high pressure keeping the sky clear. Southern Manitoba’s heavier soils will need this continued sun and a few degrees more before seeding is practical, but progress is being made.
Friday
Peace Region
A low-pressure system moving across the southern Northwest Territories will drag a cold front across the Peace Region in the afternoon. Expect rain to fall off and on through the day ahead of the front, and during its passage in the late afternoon. Rainfall amounts should range from 2 to 5 mm. Afternoon highs will dip a bit, ending up around 10 degrees before the front cools things off in the evening. Despite the frontal passage, it won’t be super cold at night, with lows within a few degrees either side of zero.
Alberta
Outside of the Peace region, most of Alberta can expect another dry day. In central and southern regions, a westerly wind will develop, though it doesn’t look like it will be disruptive. What it will do is keep the area warm and dry, with sunshine, and temperatures climbing to the low 20s anywhere south of the Yellowhead highway. North toward Athabasca, highs will reach the high teens. It will be cooler, but still seasonable in northern Alberta, as a cold front may bring some showers to north-central regions in the afternoon.
Saskatchewan
Saskatoon looks like a significant warm-up day with highs reaching the 20 to 23 degree range south of the Yellowhead highway, under a bright sunny sky. This is the warmest day of the entire period by a considerable margin. If this verifies, seeding conditions across much of Saskatchewan could be excellent by Friday. Overnight lows will be warm, with temperatures well above the freezing point. No frost is expected Friday night in Saskatchewan’s agricultural regions.
Manitoba
Manitoba continues to slowly catch up to the rest of the prairies, with highs in the mid-teens on Friday, under a sunny sky. This is a bit of a jump from the 8 and 11 degree readings earlier in the week. Southern Manitoba should see a genuine opening for field work by Friday if soils have responded to the week’s drying trend. Light-textured areas near Carberry, Portage la Prairie, and the Morden-Winkler area should be watched closely. Overnight lows should remain well above the freezing point. It will be a mild night.
Saturday and Sunday
The cold front that brought rain to the Peace Region and central Alberta on Friday will sweep through southern Alberta and weaken. There is a possibility of some showers or rain through central Alberta on Saturday and southeastern Alberta on Sunday as the front goes by. Otherwise, it will be a sunny weekend in the prairies. It will cool down a bit, with highs both days in the mid to high teens across all three provinces.
