Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Sun, Thunderstorms, and a longer range outlook
Hopes for abundant spring moisture continue to fade, with another period of warm, dry weather expected across the prairies this week. It won’t be Sahara-level dry, there will be a few showers here and there, but no major weather systems are expected to cross the region over the next several days. And, going beyond into the longer term, it appears we’ll continue to have mainly dry weather. The map below shows Environment Canada’s three month precipitation outlook for April, May, and June…..
Over the next three months, if the above map is right, we can expect drier than average conditions in most agricultural regions of the prairie provinces. Other than northern Alberta and Saskatchewan, exceptions include east central Saskatchewan and southwestern Alberta. This does not mean those areas won’t get any precipitation at all, but the three month total is expected to be below average. Such long range forecasts are nowhere near 100 percent reliable, and are subject to change.
The following map, shows the temperature outlook for the 30 day period ending May 5. With dry weather comes warmth:
Warmer than average conditions can be expected for the next month over Alberta, most of Saskatchewan, and parts of Manitoba. The greatest probability of above average temperatures is found in northwestern Alberta, including Grande Prairie, Peace River, and the surrounding areas.
Monday
Alberta
A strong upper ridge over the prairies will give sunny, and very warm conditions, with temperatures rising to the 20s in southern Alberta. In central Alberta, the day will also start sunny and warm, but in the afternoon, a low will cross the Rockies, destabilizing the atmosphere, creating convective showers, and maybe even some thunderstorms. The area most likely to be susceptible to thunderstorms is circled in red in the map below. It shows conditions expected in the late afternoon Monday:
Double digit high temperatures are expected in the storm zone, circled on the map above. Should showers and storms develop, expect a rapid temperature drop in the order of 5 to 10 degrees.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
Saskatchewan and Manitoba will be dry on Monday, with mainly sunny conditions and a light southeasterly wind. There may be a bit more cloud in western Saskatchewan, but no rain or snow is expected on Monday. In Western Saskatchewan, double digit highs are expected, even warmer in the southwest, where temperatures could reach the mid to high teens. In Eastern Saskatchewan, especially in places where there is still snow on the ground, it will be cooler, with highs closer to zero. Manitoba will also be cool, with highs across most of the province coming in somewhere between -5 and +5. Again, snow on the ground will reflect a lot of the sun’s energy, keeping temperatures lower.
Tuesday
Alberta
The upper level ridge of high pressure begins to collapse over Alberta, allowing for a bit of cooling. Locations that reached the 20s on Monday, will likely get to the mid to high teens on Tuesday. Areas that hit the high teens on Monday, will achieve lower double digits on Tuesday. Remnant showers from the instability on Monday will affect central and northern Alberta Tuesday. Southern Alberta may see considerable cloud cover, which will likely lead to some afternoon rain showers from Olds south to highway 3, and east to the Saskatchewan boundary. The atmosphere will again become unstable in the afternoon, which could mean some isolated thundershowers in southern Alberta, particularly near the Saskatchewan boundary.
Saskatchewan
Southwestern Saskatchewan will again experience a very warm day with temperatures reaching the high teens west of Regina, north to Rosetown, and south to the US border. There is the likelihood of convective showers in the afternoon, and evening or overnight thunderstorms from Maple Creek to Swift Current can’t be ruled out. Something called a deformation zone is expected to form in eastern Saskatchewan along the Manitoba boundary. It’s an area where there are two competing zones of opposite pressure. In this case, a high in Manitoba, and a low in Saskatchewan. In between the two systems is where the deformation zone forms, and it’s likely to produce a north-south line of rain, or perhaps mixed precipitation in the evening and overnight.
Manitoba
Tuesday is another dry day across Manitoba, with no significant precipitation. It will warm up to positive high temperatures in southern Manitoba and the Interlake, with cooler weather further north. There are still some areas with snow on the ground in Manitoba, and those areas will be cooler with the snow reflecting the sun’s energy.
Wednesday
Alberta
By now, the pattern is becoming familiar. Morning sun, a few afternoon clouds and isolated showers. That’s the story for all of Alberta on Wednesday. The afternoon showers are expected to form over the foothills from Grande Prairie to Montana in the afternoon, then drift eastward. Some of the showers may make it as far east as Highway 2. They will not produce significant rainfall, and will be short in duration. In most of Alberta, afternoon highs will reach 10-15 degrees, with the possibility of slightly higher temperatures in the south, and northeast of Edmonton.
Saskatchewan
Warmer weather reaches Saskatchewan with high temperatures reaching the mid teens across the south, and the western half of central and northern Saskatchewan. A weak Low pressure system will slide southeast through the day from Lloydminster through the Qu’Appelle valley to Oxbow. That will destabilize the atmosphere, creating some pop-up afternoon showers along its path. As the Low passes, the wind will gradually switch from the west to the north, and the sky will clear.
Manitoba
High pressure in northeastern Manitoba, Low pressure in southern Saskatchewan, and southern Manitoba finds itself in between those two zones. As mentioned above, that creates a deformation zone, along which there will be active weather. Early in the morning, expect a mix of rain and snow near Dauphin and Roblin, and all areas west of Lakes Manitoba and Winnipegosis. As the day goes on, the moisture slides toward the Winnipeg area, changing to snow. The precipitation will continue in the afternoon, and will change back to rain as temperatures climb. That said, they won’t climb much. Temperatures across the province will peak within a few degrees of zero.
Beneficial Rain and Snow!!!
It’s so much fun(?) forecasting weather at this time of year. Spring on the prairies – one day feels like winter, the next like summer. And, that’s what this week is all about. That means the warm midweek weather will change, and in some areas, dramatically on the weekend. For southern Alberta, snow will return. For southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, there will be rain. There is a lot of uncertainty about this, as the intensity and location of the precipitation haven’t yet been nailed down. However, it’s safe to say parts of the parched prairie will get some beneficial moisture this weekend. The precipitation begins in southern Alberta on Saturday, with snow in the foothills. During the day, the system will move east parallel to the US border, bringing snow to places like Lethbridge and Medicine Hat. As temperatures rise, the snow will turn to a mix of rain and snow for much of southern Alberta. The moisture remains in southern Alberta Sunday, and stretches east to western Manitoba. The map below shows the type of precipitation that can be expected on Sunday, April 13:
As for amounts…again, there is a lot of uncertainty, but the map below shows the Canadian Regional model forecast for precipitation totals on Sunday:
If this map is correct, the potential is there for up to 30 mm of rain in southern Saskatchewan. In pockets of southern Alberta, there is the potential for more than 20 mm of moisture, in the form of snow, rain, or a mix of both.
Until the weekend, the weather across the prairies remains rather quiet.
Thursday
Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba
All three prairie provinces will bask in sunshine or at least filtered sunshine, due to the dominance of high pressure across western and northern Canada. With the high pressure, the clear sky, and the sunshine, temperatures across Alberta and Saskatchewan will reach the double digits, with high teens expected south of highway 16. In Manitoba, it will also be warm with most areas reaching highs between 5 and 15 degrees.
Friday
Alberta
The upper ridge of high pressure that has kept the province mostly dry all week will flatten out, but at the surface, a westerly wind will keep most of the province dry and sunny for another day. East of highway 22, temperatures will again climb to the high teens, perhaps even the low 20s in some areas, especially in southeastern Alberta. In the Peace Region of northwestern Alberta, a weak Low pressure system will form, and generate 10-15 mm of rain in the area. The low will cross northern Alberta, reaching Saskatchewan by midnight. Rain will fall across the northern 1/4 of Alberta, well away from any agricultural properties. Wind will be another concern in the Peace Region, where gusts could reach 60 to 80 km/h. As a trough of low pressure sweeps through the south, wind gusts in SW Alberta may also reach the 80 km/h threshold.
Saskatchewan
Friday’s another dry day in Saskatchewan, with most of the province under a mainly sunny sky. In the north, an approaching Low from Alberta will spread rain across the region beginning in the afternoon. There may be a few sprinkles as far south as Wynyard, but it won’t be meaningful precipitation. The bigger story is the warmth in southern Saskatchewan, where highs near or above 20 are quite likely in the area between Moose Jaw and Montana. The rest of the province will see highs climb above the melting point, mainly in the low to mid teens.
Manitoba
Double digit highs are likely in the interlake and southern Manitoba Friday afternoon, with highs between 10 and 15 degrees. It will be mainly sunny, though bands of broken cloud are likely to move across the province from west to east during the day. There is no chance of any significant precipitation.
Saturday
Alberta
Saturday will be another warm, quiet day across the prairies, with highs in most areas from 10 to 20 degrees. If you have outdoor work or chores to do, or whether you want to break for a bike ride, a game of tennis, or even golf (if your course is open), then do it Saturday, because the weather becomes active again on Sunday, particularly in Alberta. A Low pressure system will form in the early morning in south central Alberta, and in the late afternoon and evening, snow will fall over the higher terrain of the foothills and mountains. That system moves east through the day, and intensifies. With the developing weather changes, Saturday will be cooler than Friday, with below average highs in the single digits west of highway 2, and in the low to mid teens to the east.
Saskatchewan
The forests of northern Saskatchewan will get some rain and snow, but in the south, it remains mainly sunny and dry with a westerly wind. Late in the day, precipitation from the Low in Alberta will begin to sneak into southern Saskatchewan. Given the time of day, it could be rain, but may also fall as a mix of rain and snow. Prior to the arrival of the wet weather, highs south of the Trans Canada Highway could reach 15 to 20 degrees. Highs in the mid teens are expected north of the Trans Canada Highway to Prince Albert. Further north, with rain and snow in the forest, temperatures will peak within 5 degrees either side of zero.
Manitoba
It’ll be a warm day in Manitoba, ahead of cooler and wetter weather on Sunday. Temperatures will reach double digits in the southern half of the province, wiith the possibility of temperatures reaching the high teens south of the Lakes.
Sunday
This is a no fun forecast day. The description and maps above lay out the scenario for Sunday. And, if it plays out as indicated, there could be some hazardous travel conditions for southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba. As mentioned above, there is a lot of uncertainty, and most of the moisture could very well end up south of the border. It’s just not possible at this time (Thursday) to determine which way things will go on Sunday. It’s safe to say there will be some precipitation across the southern Prairies on the weekend, and there is the potential for significant precipitation, but no guarantee.
COMPARE: Prairie Weather This Week – Mar 31
