Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Precipitation for Parched Pastures

 

We’re almost two weeks into Spring and on the Canadian Prairie, that can mean only one thing – Snow!    It snowed last week across much of the prairie, and it will snow again this week.   This week’s snow, though, is better targeted, as it is expected to reach more of the areas that are still considered to be in drought.    Below are some measurements from CoCoRahs volunteers,  taken between March 27 and March 30, when a snowstorm travelled the Yellowhead from Edmonton to Winnipeg.

 

Alberta Precipitati0n Totals March 27 – March 30

 

Saskatchewan Precipitati0n Totals March 27 – March 30

 

Manitoba Precipitati0n Totals March 27 – March 30

 

Note that snowfall varied widely within the city of Winnipeg.   Snow depth on the north side of the city was approximately double that of the south side.

More snow is on the way this week.   This time, an area hard hit by drought will receive the highest amounts of beneficial snowfall, most of it falling midweek.   The map below shows the total snowfall amounts expected up until midnight Monday morning, April 7:

Looking at the map above, it will snow across the prairies this week, and most areas will get just a few cm.   If you look at the bottom left corner, you can see an area of heavier snow in southwestern Alberta.  This could provide at least some relief for the area, which is in drought.   The map shows 5 cm of snow expected this week in Lethbridge, 13 cm for Calgary, and 40 cm for Crowsnest Pass.

Most of the snow is expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

Monday

Alberta

Monday will be one of the quieter days this week.   Areas of Alberta where the sky was clear overnight can expect patchy fog first thing Monday morning.   Also in the morning, some snow flurries are possible for the southwestern corner of the province near the US border.  Those flurries will move eastward as the day goes on.   Most of the flurries will happen south of Highway 3.   It will be a cooler than average day, with most areas reaching highs near zero.  It could be slightly warmer between Calgary and Oyen, and in the Peace region.

Saskatchewan

No significant weather is expected in Saskatchewan Monday.   Most of the province will be under a sunny sky, thanks to an Arctic high over northeastern Manitoba.   Southwestern Saskatchewan will see considerable cloud, and there is a chance of rain or snow in Cypress Hills.   Otherwise, the province is dry with an easterly wind, and highs near o.

Manitoba

The area around Morden and Winkler could warm up to plus values Monday afternoon, otherwise it’s a cool day for Manitoba, with subzero weather across most of the area.   The cool weather is from a large Arctic air mass that will cover the province during the day.   With the cold weather, this area of  high pressure brings plenty of sunshine across all of Manitoba.

 

Tuesday

Here’s Environment Canada’s significant weather chart for Tuesday:

 

 

Alberta

Snow begins in west central and northern Alberta on Tuesday.  Two separate areas of snow from two separate disturbances.  Most areas can expect 5-10 cm of snow, but there may be higher amounts in the foothills due to upslope enhancement.   In the areas expecting snow, high temperatures will come close to 0, meaning heavy, wet snow is expected.   To the east, outside the snow zone, highs should rise to the 5-10 degree range, with sunshine giving way to cloud in the evening.

Saskatchewan

As the map above shows, there may be some significant snowfall in northwestern Saskatchewan Tuesday.  What is not shown above, is lighter snow that’s expected to fall in central and southeastern Saskatchewan during the day.   And, we can’t rule out rain for Cypress Hills.   For the record, the snow up north is happening along an inverted trough, around a Low pressure system centered where the boundaries of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and the Northwest Territories meet.    As suggested by the forecast for rain in Cypress Hills, temperatures in southwestern Saskatchewan could climb to the 5-10 degree range, remaining closer to zero elsewhere in the province.

Manitoba

Yet another cooler than average day in Manitoba, with most of the province struggling to reach zero.   The exception may be southern Manitoba between Portage la Prairie and Ontario, where highs of +5 are within reach.   Lihgt snow will mvoe into southwestern Manitoba during the midday, drifting slowly eastward, reaching the Red River Valley in the evening.   Snow totals won’t be significant.

 

Wednesday

This is Environment Canada’s significant weather chart for Wednesday:

Again, two separate systems will bring snow to southern Alberta and northern Saskatchewan Wednesday.   This is terrific news for southwestern Alberta, where drought conditions continue to persist west of highway 2.   This area could be in for significant snowfall Wednesday.

Alberta

An upslope flow around a high  pressure system to the north, will generate some snow in southwestern Alberta, and along the foothills and eastern slopes of the Rockies Wednesday.  West of Pincher Creek,  Morley, and Rocky Mountain House, snowfall totals could reach an impressive 10-20 cm.   East of there, 5-10 cm may fall all the way to Brooks and Bow Island, with lesser amounts in the Medicine Hat area.   Medicine Hat, Onefour, and Cypress Hills are more likely to get rain.   It cannot be overstated how important this precipitation is to a region that has been so dry for so long.   It also cannot be overstated that, while this moisture is welcome, it likely won’t be enough to bring the area out of a drought designation.   Expect high temperatures slightly above zero south of highway 3, and slightly below zero across the rest of the province.

Saskatchewan

Significant snowfall is expected in northern Saskatchewan Wednesday, but, not shown on the map above, there will be snow or rain  in much of the rest of the province as well.   Light snow will fall through part of the day in central Saskatchewan, with rain showers expected south of the Trans Canada highway west of Regina.   In southern Saskatchewan, temperatures should rise to the 5 to 10 degree range, allowing for the rain.   In central and northern Saskatchewan, highs will be near or slightly below zero.   Being so close to the melting point, the snow in central and northern Saskatchewan will have a lot of water content, and could therefore be quite heavy.

Manitoba

Most of Manitoba will get at least a little snow on Wednesday.  In the south, most of it falls before sunrise, and tapers off during the day.   Other than some late day breaks, the bulk of the day will remain cloudy.   In northern Manitoba, the slow moving Low pressure system will continue to produce snow throughout the day, and into Thursday.   If you scroll back up to the first map on this post, you can see some impressive snow totals forecast for this week in Northern Manitoba.   Temperature consistency continues, as highs across the province will peak near  zero.

 

Soil Moisture Status

Snow over the past week or so has helped with soil moisture across the prairies.   The map below shows the soil moisture anomaly at 40 cm, with areas in blue indicating above average soil moisture, and areas in brown indicating where soil moisture is below average.   Southwestern Alberta remains particularly dry, as does southern Saskatchewan, and most of Manitoba’s agricultural territory.

The map above was generated Thursday, April 3.

 

Thursday

The map below shows afternoon temperatures across the prairies for Thursday.  All week, while the weather itself has been highly variable, temperatures have been remarkably consistent over both space and time.   And, that’s the situation Thursday, with temperatures peaking near zero all across the prairies.

 

Alberta

A large surface ridge of high pressure builds across Alberta Thursday,  the sky clears, and the snow on the ground either melts or evaporates.   Sunshine replaces the snow, as the sky clears from north to south.  The clearing should reach the US border by late afternoon.   Because the air is cold at higher elevations, look for convective cloud to build in the afternoon, leading to brief but intense flurries across central and southern Alberta.   The downbursts won’t last long, but may impair travel for a short period of time due to poor visibility in the snowfall.

Saskatchewan

The Low pressure system in the north, that has produced significant snowfalls for northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba for several days, is moving very slowly, so snow will continue for yet another day in the forests of northern Saskatchewan.  2-4 cm of snow can be expected.  A cold front will form, and may cause snow flurries for central and southern Saskatchewan.  Some of the flurries could be quite intense, causing short lived reductions in visibility.  Because the downbursts will be brief, there won’t be any serious accumulation.

Manitoba

Another day of snow is expected Thursday in northern Manitoba. adding to an already significant accumulation on the ground.   The snow will fall north of the Lakes, while in the south it will be mainly dry.   Though a few flurries can’t be ruled out in southwestern Manitoba, the sky will remain mainly sunny to partly cloudy through most of the southern part of the province.

 

Friday

Alberta

With a big surface high dominating the prairies, Alberta will have a sunny Friday.   However,  this is Arctic high pressure, and it will be a chilly day.   Early in the morning, low temperatures BELOW -10 can be expected across most of the province, though it may be slightly warmer along the Trans Canada highway corridor between Calgary and Medicine Hat.    From Edmonton east to Lloydminster, and southeast to Camrose, temperatures could drop as low as -20.  Despite bright sunshine, afternoon highs won’t get much higher than +5 in southern Alberta.  However, from Drayton Valley northwest to Peace River, highs will soar to the double digits.

Saskatchewan

It will be another cool day with highs across the province peaking near zero.   High pressure will provide sunshine to most of the province for all of Friday.  The snow in northern Saskatchewan will finally come to an end., and some of it will melt, thanks to a direct hit from the sun’s rays.

 

Manitoba

The Low pressure system responsible for a week’s worth of snow in northern Manitoba finally weakens and turns down the snow tap.   Snow will continue to fall, but much more lightly.   Scattered flurries can be expected in central Manitoba, while the south remains cloudy with light snow throughout the day.   Temperatures across the province will peak near zero yet again.

Saturday

 

Alberta

An upper ridge builds, west wind develops at the surface, and that’s a recipe for dry, mild weather.   Expect the entire province to be under a clear, blue, sunny sky Saturday,  with very warm weather.   Two areas could be particularly warm.   Computer models are suggesting highs near 20 in Edmonton and the Peace country.  However, in the few areas that still have snow on the ground, it’s more likely temperatures in those areas will reach the mid to high teens at best.   Nonetheless, it’s still warmer than average, and it will be sunny.   Most of the rest of Alberta can expect warmer than average weather, with double digit highs in most areas.   It will likely be a bit cooler in the Drumheller and Lloydminster areas.

Saskatchewan

Mild Pacific air floods into western Saskatchewan, where double digit highs are indicated by the computer models.   However,  snow on the ground may keep temperatures a bit cooler than indicated.    West of Regina, where there is snow on the ground, expect highs near 10.   In areas where there is no snow, it could be a couple of degrees warmer.   Cooler weather is expected on the eastern side of the province, with highs near 0, thanks to some cold air circulating into the area around a Low pressure system to the east.

Manitoba

Midday snow flurries over Lakes Manitoba and Winnipegosis will move southeast, and there will be snow in the Red River Valley and in southeastern Manitoba in the afternoon.  Amounts should be minimal.   Snow will also continue to fall around Churchill and along the Hudson Bay shore.   Otherwise Manitoba will be cloudy to partly cloudy on Saturday,  with highs across the province within a few degrees either side of zero.

 

Sunday

Here’s a chart from Environment Canada showing expected temperatures in the mid afternoon on Sunday.   Note the west-east contrast, with Alberta being extraordinarily warm, and Manitoba staying quite cool.

 

This chart, from the RDPS model, indicates 20 degree high temperatures are possible in many places throughout Alberta and Southwestern Saskatchewan.   As mentioned above,  snow on the ground will play a big role in determining whether these temperatures are actually reached.   Eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba remain in a circulation of cold air from the north, so temperatures will again be much lower than on the western prairies.   Highs below zero are likely in those regions.   Snow will continue in east central and northeastern Manitoba through the day, and in the midday, there is the possibility of some light snow between Lake Winnipeg and Ontario.

 

 

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