Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – An Arctic airmass is firmly in charge of the Prairies to start the week, but the big story is a clipper that will develop Monday night and that means more snow through the central and southeastern Prairies by mid-week.
It may be April. We may be past Easter. But we’re not past winter’s weather. Yet more snow is expected in central Alberta, southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba this week. Moisture at this time of year is always a positive thing, though it leaves fields muddy, impairs transportation, and sometimes interferes with calving operations. The map below shows the amount of snow expected until the evening of Wednesday 8:
This week’s clipper-generated precipitation pattern aligns with what we’ve seen all winter. The storm track extends through central Alberta, central Saskatchewan, and into southern Manitoba. These areas have received an abundance of moisture over the past few months, compared to southern agricultural regions of Alberta and Saskatchewan. Those areas will get some snow, but will largely be left out of the larger dumps. Calgarians may argue with the above point, as that city may be in line for more than 10 cm.
Snow forecasting is never easy, but it is especially hard at this time of year. Depending on temperature, snow can be either fluffy or moist and heavy. Some may melt when it reaches the ground, or evaporate quickly with even the briefest glimpse of sunshine. So, take the above map not literally, but as a guideline of what could be on the ground by Wednesday night.
Monday
Peace Region
The week opens with a small disturbance moving through the Peace Country, producing periods of snow through the morning. Moisture totals will be modest. Expect somewhere in the range of 5 to 9 cm, with snow continuing through the day, especially in the north Peace. This will provide at least some relief for drought stricken regions, especially on the BC side. Temperatures will be cold, with highs near 0. The snow will continue through the afternoon and evening, and may mix with rain before tapering off Tuesday morning.
Alberta
An Arctic ridge building southward from the Beaufort Sea will keep skies relatively clear across much of central Alberta to start the week, aside from the Peace Country snow mentioned above. In southern Alberta, a persistent easterly flow has set up conditions for some lingering mixed precipitation – snow north and west of Calgary, with a rain-snow mix south and east of the city. Localized accumulations of around 2 cm are possible in upslope flow along the Rockies. By afternoon, precipitation chances will have diminished considerably. Daytime highs across Alberta on Monday will generally sit in the 0 to 7 degree range, with double digits possible south of Highway 3. The mild weather in southern Alberta will continue overnight. Snowmelt is largely complete across the south, but central Alberta snowpacks remain variable – from depleted in parts of the Red Deer River basin to near-complete cover in the lower North Saskatchewan River basin.
Saskatchewan
High pressure is building behind a trough that tracked through central Saskatchewan over the weekend, and Monday should be a relatively quiet day across most of the province. Skies will be partly cloudy, and temperatures will remain below average. The snowpack that remains between Regina and Saskatoon – and eastward through the Highway 5 and Highway 16 corridors – will begin to melt slowly under daytime temperatures that should reach 0 to 5 degrees in the south. The freeze-thaw pattern is actually ideal for getting moisture into the soil ahead of spring planting, so producers should welcome the gradual pace. In central and northern regions, highs will range from -2 to -4.
Manitoba
A trough associated with the dissipating low that crossed the central Prairies over the weekend will continue to produce intermittent precipitation through the early morning. Expect snow for most areas, with a freezing rain risk confined primarily to the Red River Valley. High pressure builds in through the afternoon and evening, bringing improving conditions. Snow remains on the ground in the Dauphin, Neepawa, and surrounding areas. Highs across southern agricultural regions, and for most of the rest of the province, will be in the negative single digits.
Tuesday
Peace Region
A quieter day follows Monday’s disturbance, with partly cloudy to cloudy skies, cold weather, and a few flurries. Snow accumulations will be minimal, as the core of the system moves off into central Saskatchewan. Highs will remain near 0. The brief lull will be appreciated, though the drought across the BC-Alberta Peace Country continues with no significant pattern change in sight. Producers in the region remain in a difficult position heading into spring.
Alberta
Tuesday is a day to watch closely. An Alberta clipper is expected to develop Monday night and begin pushing eastward through the province through the day. Accumulating snowfall is a concern for a fair portion of central Alberta. By midday, the clipper will have sped into southwestern Saskatchewan, near Maple Creek. Behind it, the snow in Alberta slumps southward. Snow will intensify in central Alberta as far south as Calgary. South of Calgary, toward Claresholm, it may be warm enough for the snow to change to rain. There is considerable uncertainty over the precipitation type in southern Alberta, but it’s safe to say, one way or the other, it will be a wet day. Daytime highs will remain in the 2 to 5 degree range across most of the province, with colder air filtering in from the north.
Saskatchewan
The clipper will push quickly through Saskatchewan on Tuesday into Wednesday. Central portions of the province are at risk for additional accumulating snowfall. And to the south, ahead of the clipper, there will be a significant warm sector. Rain will fall in the afternoon and evening, with temperatures climbing to a range of 10 to 17 degrees from Regina and Moose Jaw south into eastern Montana. Elsewhere, temperatures will stay below seasonal. Freezing rain is possible during the late evening in southeastern Saskatchewan, along the Trans Canada Highway near Balgonie. The rain will turn back to snow overnight, and most areas south of the Yellowhead highway will receive a fresh blanket.
Manitoba
The clipper’s eastward progression means Manitoba will feel its effects by mid to late afternoon. Southern Manitoba, including the Red River Valley, faces another round of accumulating snowfall, with the possibility of up to 5 cm. The heaviest amounts will fall in Riding Mountain National Park. The day will begin with sunshine in southern Manitoba, but it won’t last long as cloud quickly builds, leading to the start of the snow. This is affecting almost all of the agricultural areas of southern Manitoba, so producers should keep an eye on the forecast and ensure livestock have adequate shelter and feed heading into the mid-week period. Afternoon temperatures across southern Manitoba will end up in the -2 to -4 degree range.
Wednesday
Peace Region
Snow ends for the Peace Region, as a dry westerly wind takes over. It is expected to be mainly sunny with some clouds. It will warm up slightly, as temperatures climb above the melting point, perhaps into the 5 to 7 degree range. No significant weather is expected, but the ground will become soft and soggy due to melting snow.
Alberta
The clipper continues spreading snow into east central Alberta on Wednesday, though it is a quick-moving system. Once it clears, high pressure begins to rebuild from the west, setting up a drying and warming trend through the second half of the week. Northern Alberta snowpacks, which are generally above normal for this time of year, will see some additional accumulation as light snow continues to fall from a low close to the Northwest Territories boundary. Afternoon temperatures across most of the province will climb to the 2-8 degree range, and may get into the high single digits near Bow Island, Lethbridge, and perhaps as far west as Pincher Creek and Waterton.
Saskatchewan
Wednesday brings the clipper through southern Saskatchewan and into Manitoba. Expect cloudy skies and periods of snow across much of the southern half of the province. The snow will accumulate, and the Yellowhead and Trans-Canada corridors could see impacts on travel, as a brisk northwesterly wind could cause some blowing snow and all its impacts. Snowfall totals in the area will be substantial, perhaps near or above 20 cm. Unlike the previous day, there will be no influx of warm air, and temperatures will remain below the freezing point across most of the province.
Manitoba
The clipper makes its final push through Manitoba on Wednesday. Southern Manitoba will see periods of snow and reduced visibility. The snow could fall particularly heavily during midday, especially in the Red River Valley and southeastern Manitoba. In the south, snow totals should stay below 10 cm. However, up to 20 cm is possible in the Interlake and Dauphin regions. The clipper is likely to approach Winnipeg from Portage la Prairie in the early afternoon, then turn northeast toward the Seven Sisters area by afternoon and evening. However, snow will persist across the southern half of Manitoba throughout the day, the evening, and overnight into Thursday. Temperatures across southern agricultural regions will peak close to the melting point in the late afternoon.
Thursday
Peace Region
Conditions improve across the Peace Country on Thursday as the clipper departs to the east and high pressure rebuilds. There may be a few flurries in the afternoon as a very weak low moves into the BC Peace from the west. This is not a troublemaking system, and no significant snowfall accumulations are anticipated. Expect highs near 4 to 5 degrees. River break-up is approaching, and the Town of Peace River is monitoring conditions closely, given the above-normal snowpack this winter and the potential for ice jams on the Peace River.
Alberta
Early morning snow is expected in the foothills and the eastern slopes of the Rockies, but it’s unlikely to spread much further east than the Forestry Trunk Road. By late morning, it’s all over, and the sky will clear out. A weak low will produce a few scattered flurries in Wood Buffalo, but the rest of the province should be mainly sunny with a northwesterly wind. South of the Yellowhead and as far northwest as Grande Prairie, highs could reach 5-10 degrees, with slightly cooler, but melting temperatures expected in the rest of the province.
Saskatchewan
High pressure consolidates over the province on Thursday, bringing partly to mostly cloudy skies after a few early morning flurries in the south. In the north, the flurries will continue through the day, but it will be very hit-and-miss. It’s not yet possible to accurately forecast exactly where the snow will fall, or how much there will be. It is safe to say, though, that by the afternoon, the area of snow or flurries will be confined to the northern boreal forest. Elsewhere, the gradual snowmelt will continue, though overnight freezes will keep the pace slow. That’s ideal for soil moisture uptake. Temperatures across most regions will rise above the melting point. In the agricultural regions of southern and south-central Saskatchewan, expect highs between 5 and 7 degrees.
Manitoba
The low is slow, so goes the snow. The low that produced snow for most of Manitoba on Wednesday will slowly move east on Thursday, and the precipitation will gradually taper off. By the afternoon, the last of the snow will pull out of the Red River Valley, exiting the province altogether by midnight. West of Winnipeg, most agricultural land will be beneath sunshine, so the snow will melt and the ground will be sloppy. It remains cold, with highs near 0, but the return of sunshine will allow some surface melting where the snowpack is thinner across southern regions. Overnight lows will still dip to around −5°C, maintaining the freeze-thaw cycle.
Friday
Peace Region
Friday morning starts with dry weather across the Peace Region, with partly sunny skies. The BC side of the border will remain colder and cloudier, with a mix of rain and snow early in the day. That precipitation will cross into Alberta in the late morning and may change over to rain as temperatures climb into the 1 to 3 degree range. The drought situation across the region persists, and the rain on Friday, along with the modest snow from earlier in the week, will have provided only marginal relief. Producers there are now looking toward late April for any further precipitation chances.
Alberta
Friday shapes up to be the warmest day of the week for much of Alberta. Calgary is forecast to reach a high of 13 on Friday, with the Okotoks and High River area potentially reaching 15. The Drumheller and Three Hills area can also expect highs near 13 under a mix of sun and cloud. This will be a significant warmup and a good window for producers looking to get into fields or attend to spring maintenance. Overnight lows will remain above the freezing point in southern areas. From Athabasca west into the Peace Region, expect afternoon rain, as disturbances ride over the top of a surface ridge to the south.
Saskatchewan
Friday brings a continuation of the improving trend across Saskatchewan. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly cloudy, with temperatures rising above freezing across most of southern and central agricultural regions. South of the Yellowhead highway, high temperatures could approach or even exceed 15 degrees. The warming will accelerate snowmelt across the areas that still carry a significant snowpack from the late-March event. Producers in east-central Saskatchewan should be monitoring soil conditions as the melt picks up pace heading into the weekend.
Manitoba
After a few cold and snowy days, Manitoba dries out and warms up. Outside of the far north, dry weather is expected across Manitoba, with most areas expecting abundant sunshine. The warming trend will be noticeable across southern Manitoba after the cold of mid-week. Look for highs of 5 to 7 degrees from southern Manitoba, through the Interlake, and as far north as Gillam. The snowmelt in the Dauphin, Neepawa, and surrounding areas will begin to accelerate, and producers in those areas will want to keep an eye on field and road conditions.
Saturday and Sunday
All three Prairie provinces will see a continued warming trend through the weekend, with southern Alberta leading the way. Calgary is forecast to see a high near 10°C on Saturday, with the chance of showers returning, while the Lethbridge and Brooks areas could reach 12 to 15 degrees. Saskatchewan and Manitoba will warm more gradually, but daytime highs above freezing will be widespread, accelerating snowmelt across the remaining snowpack. The gradual melt through much of the week will have done its work by the weekend, with the hope that a good portion of that moisture has had time to infiltrate the topsoil before the warmth picks up the pace of runoff. We will watch a low developing in northeastern Montana. The easterly circulation north of the low could bring rain to southern Manitoba and Saskatchewan on Sunday, with even more snow for central Alberta and the Peace Region. We’ll get a better look at it later in the week and update the system in our midweek update post here on Thursday.
