Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Most of Alberta, and parts of Saskatchewan have returned to drought conditions, following a dry July in which many areas received less than 40 mm of rain, and well above average temperatures. The latest Canadian Drought Monitor, effective July 31, has been released by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada:
The drought is considered extreme in central Alberta, especially between Red Deer and Edmonton, and in the northwestern corner of the province. Manitoba remains drought-free, though some parts of the central north forest are considered abnormally dryAgriculture and Agri-Food Canada says 87 percent of agricultural land on the prairies is classified as abnormally dry or in moderate to exceptional drought. . The soil in the hardest hit areas has rapidly dried up, and the government agency says crops have also been affected by heat stress.
The dry conditions have forced farmers to make decisions….harvest crops now before further deterioration, silage, or wait it out, and see what the weather brings. The latest Saskatchewan crop report suggests there is still an opportunity for moisture to be beneficial for later seeded crops. However, harvesting operations have already begun for earlier seeded crops. Across Saskatchewan, 2 percent of the harvest is complete, which is in line with long term averages.
The situation is similar in Alberta, though storms over the past week have provided some relief for the stressed crops. That said, crops are being silaged across the province, and, according to the Alberta Crop Report, in southern Alberta, harvest of some fall seeded crops and spring pulses is expected to get underway soon, if it hasn’t already.
Of course, that depends on the weather, and it appears the crops may be in for more stress from heat and overall dry weather.
RELATED: Hail Report: Alberta Crops Most Affected By Recent Storms
Monday:
The week begins with unsettled weather over Alberta and Saskatchewan, with a moderate chance of thunderstorms south and east of Calgary. An upper level trough of low pressure could help trigger showers and storms in AlbertaA surface low develops near Cardston on Monday, enhancing the chance for severe thunderstorms with gusty wind and large hail. To the east, upper high pressure is in place for the eastern Prairies, with more sunshine, and higher temperatures for eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. This is Environment Canada’s thunderstorm outlook map for Monday:
Afternoon highs across all three Prairie Provinces will reach the mid to high twenties.
Tuesday:
As the Cardston low slinks to the southeast, the sky will clear out early in the day for Alberta, but showers will pop up over parts of central and southern Saskatchewan. Afternoon showers and thundershowers are also likely for the Alberta mountains and foothills. In the evening, the showers expand into central Alberta, while the south stays dry. Rain will develop Tuesday night in Saskatchewan, extending from the Montana border to north of Prince Albert. Manitoba has another sunny, pleasant day, with no active weather expected. It will be another warm day east of Alberta’s highway 2. In the foothills, where rain Is expected, it will be cooler, with many areas lucky to hit 20 degrees. However, along the agricultural south, temperatures in the afternoon will exceed 26 degrees, with some parts of southern Saskatchewan reaching 30 or higher. (Green on the map below):
Wednesday:
The north-south line of precipitation mentioned in Tuesday’s outlook begins to move slowly east across Saskatchewan, gaining strength as it moves along. There could be periods of significant rainfall near the Manitoba boundary, with a good chance of thunderstorms during the afternoon. By early evening, a Low develops near Yorkton, with significant moisture on the east side, from Swan River to The Pas. Rain also breaks out in the afternoon across southern Manitoba south of the Trans-Canada Highway. This time, it’s Alberta’s turn for dry weather, with the temperature moderated by a north wind. Manitoba’s rain will suppress temperatures, with highs only near 20. High 20s can be expected in most of southern Alberta and Saskatchewan.
Thursday:
It will be dry across the prairies with two exceptions: Typical afternoon thunderstorms in Alberta’s foothills, and rain will continue in Manitoba, as the Low moves from Yorkton to the Interlake. That will generate rain across most of Manitoba, easing in the afternoon west of Winnipeg. Manitoba’s rain will suppress temperatures, with highs only near 20. High 20s can be expected in most of southern Alberta and Saskatchewan. With the drier weather, temperatures will have an opportunity to creep close to 30 in southern Alberta and southern Saskatchewan, though it will stay a bit cooler with highs in the low 20s in Manitoba.
Friday:
Unsettled weather continues in Manitoba, as the interlake low moves southeast into Minnesota. In Alberta, the atmosphere becomes unstable, as a Low moves into northern Montana, and pushes rain into Alberta. An upslope flow will develop, and the foothills and mountains have the potential for the highest rainfall totals. However, by the afternoon, the rest of the province, except perhaps for the far north, will receive significant rainfall. Saskatchewan will remain dry. Friday through Sunday, afternoon highs in the southern prairies will reach the mid to high 20s.
Saturday:
This will be another rainy day for much of Alberta, especially in the Jasper-Hinton-Edson area. A Low develops near Saskatchewan Crossing, shooting heavy rain to the north. The rain will also expand east through Edmonton to Lloydminster. Southern Alberta’s foothills can expect to get wet, and that rain should stay west of highway 2. It’ll be a dry Saturday across most of Saskatchewan, with Manitoba again receiving some residual moisture in the form of light rain.
Sunday:
Dry weather returns to southern Alberta, with rain continuing north of a line from Jasper to Edmonton to Lloydminster. Southern Saskatchewan can expect rain, while Manitoba is dry.
Event Forecasts
Hanover Agricultural Fair, Aug 15-18, Grunthal, Manitoba
Thursday, August 15, Morning rain, ending in the afternoon, clearing in the evening, high 25 (evening)
Friday, August 16, Mostly cloudy, afternoon shoers, chance of thundershowers, high 24
Saturday, August 17, Partly cloudy, high 25
Sunday, August 18, Sunny, high 26
Lloydminster Canadian Professional Chuckwagon Finals, Aug 14-18, Lloydminster, SK
Wednesday, August 14, Mainly sunny, high 28
Thursday, August 15, Sunny, high 27
Friday, August 16, Mainly sunny, high 28
Saturday, August 17, Mostly cloudy, chance of showers, high 26
Sunday, clearing , sunny in the afternoon, high 25
Rimbey Country Fair, Aug 15-19, Rimbey, AB
Thursday, August 15, Sunny, evening clouds and showers, high 25
Friday, August 16, Mostly cloudy, high 22
Saturday, August 17, Rain in the morning, mainly cloudy in the afternoon, high 21
Sunday, August 18, Sunny, high 22
Monday, August 19, Partly cloudy, high 21
Buffalo Daze Rodeo, Aug 16-19, Buffalo, AB
Friday, August 16, Mainly cloudy, windy, thunderstorms, high 30
Saturday, August 17, Partly cloudy, afternoon thunderstorms, clearing in the evening, high 26
Sunday, August 18, Sunny, high 28
Monday, August 19, Early morning rain, afternoon sun, high 26
Westlock Ag Fair, Aug 16-18, Westlock, AB
Friday, August 16, Cloudy, showers, late day thunderstorms, high 23
Saturday, August 17, Mainly cloudy, windy, chance of thunderstorms, high 19
Sunday, August 18, Clearing, high 23
Hythe Agricultural Fair, Aug 18, Hythe, AB
Sunday, August 18, Cloudy, rain, chance of thunderstorms, high 15
COMPARE TO LAST WEEK: Prairie Weather this Week – August 5
