Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Rain returns!  And we all get to share it.  A flip in the weather pattern has taken us out of last week’s hot, dry conditions, and has put us into a cooler, wetter weather regime for this week.  The map below shows expected rain totals by Sunday night.  Central Alberta and the foothills will get the largest share of rain, though there will be plenty of moisture for much of Saskatchewan and Manitoba as well.

To give you an idea of how badly this rain is needed, here are July’s precipitation totals for the three prairie provinces.   With one lone Manitoba exception (Morden), rainfall totals in July were either below average or way below average (see Moosomin).

Alberta:

Data: ECCC

Saskatchewan:

Data: ECCC

Manitoba:

Data: ECCC

As mentioned, there is relief on the way for this week.  Temperatures will drop below average across the southern prairies, and wetter than average conditions are expected across most of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.  The flow aloft will be from west to east in the early part of the week, meaning we’re not in one of those big upper high pressure ridges that bring us hot dry weather, but it also means we should not anticipate any major rain storms.   The rain that will fall this week will be convective, so we can expect thunderstorms.   The isolated nature of thunderstorms could leave us with some areas getting great amounts of rain, while places nearby receive very little.   And of course, the thunderstorms would bring lightning, which comes with its own set of issues.

RELATED:

MONDAY:

The day begins with rain across Central Alberta, with a chance for heavier rain in the Stettler area. Across southern Alberta, especially in areas that received rain Sunday night, pay close attention to Environment Canada’s watches and warnings. There is the potential for severe storms, including heavy rain and large hail. Strong wind is likely, including the chance for a tornado. The rain is coming from the flow around a surface low in South Dakota, and around a surface high in northern Saskatchewan.   Southwestern Saskatchewan can also expect some morning rain from this system.  As the day goes on, the Low moves away, but circulation around high pressure in northern Alberta will maintain an upslope flow against the Alberta foothills, and rain will persist there through the day.   Afternoon rain can also be expected along the Alberta Saskatchewan boundary from Lloydminster south to Oyen.   Most of southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba will remain dry.   For now.  The foothills rain should limit high temperatures to the teens and low twenties.   Elsewhere, all across the prairies, we can expect highs in the low 20s, with the exception of southeastern Saskatchewan (15-20), and the Lethbridge/Medicine Hat area (25-30).

TUESDAY:

Showers, rain, or thunderstorms can be expected over two regions….Alberta west of highway 2, and the area that includes southeastern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba.  The map above shows heavier rain for central Alberta, and that’s expected to be the case on Tuesday.  Where the rain falls, highs will only reach about 15 degrees.   However, dry areas across the southern Prairies from Lethbridge to Ontario, will reach highs of 20-25 degrees.

WEDNESDAY:

At last, the rain moves into southcentral Manitoba, with thunderstorms expected in the area.  Heavier rain is also likely during the morning in the Medicine Hat area, with lighter rain across central and southern Alberta.   A few showers are forecast for Saskatchewan and southern parts of Manitoba in the morning.    And…the morning will be quite cool with single digit lows west of highway 2 in Alberta, and lows near 10 degrees across the rest of Alberta and Saskatchewan.   Southern Manitoba won’t get quite so cold in the morning, with lows near 15ish, and humid.  An upslope flow will maintain the rain in southern Alberta.  A Low in the Red River Valley in North Dakota will intensify the Manitoba moisture, providing significant rain from Portage La Prairie east into Northwestern Ontario.   The cold will persist through the afternoon in Alberta west of highway 2, with highs reaching 15 at best.   The rest of the prairies will be cooler than average, with only a few places reaching 20 degrees.

THURSDAY:

Drier weather returns to most regions except the foothills in southwestern Alberta, and parts of southeastern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba.    Most of the three Prairie Provinces will see a return to sunshine under a massive ridge of high pressure coming down from the Arctic.    It’s the kind of system that often brings cooler weather into the area from the north.   As a result, expect highs below 20 degrees across the southern prairies.   As that high moves out of the north and into the southern prairies, the north warms up, and 30-35 degree temperatures are possible as far north as the Arctic Ocean coast!

FRIDAY:

The big high slides south into Saskatchewan, and it will be dry across the prairies, again except for the Alberta foothills, were there may be some upslope precipitation, and in Manitoba, south of the Trans-Canada Highway.   Cooler than average weather continues, with little change in temperature compared with  the past two days.

SATURDAY:

The big high continues to affect prairie weather, as it slides southeast toward Souris, Manitoba.   It should be dry across the prairies, except for a chance of showers or weaker thunderstorms along the Milk River ridge in southern Alberta.   Temperatures return to seasonal averages, with highs all across the prairies reaching the mid-twenties.

SUNDAY:

By Sunday, the high pressure system that has kept the prairies dry since Thursday moves on, and prairie weather again becomes more unsettled, with afternoon showers or thunderstorms likely in southern Alberta and southern Saskatchewan.   As the high, and its cooler air, have moved away, there is an opportunity for temperatures to continue to climb, but slowly.   Highs across the prairies will again reach the mid-twenties.

Event Forecasts:

SASKATOON EX,  August 6-11,  Saskatoon, Saskatchewan

Tuesday, August 6,   Cloudy, periods of rain, chance of thunderstorms, brisk easterly wind, high 19

Wednesday, August 7,   Mostly cloudy, windy with gusts to 40 km/h, high 17

Thursday, August 8,   Cloudy, partial afternoon clearing, breezy, high 18

Friday, August 9,  Sunny, calm, high 20

Saturday August 10,   Sunny, calm, high 23

Sunday, August 11,  A mix of sun and cloud, breezy, high 23

WINKLER HARVEST FESTIVAL  August 9-11, Winkler, Manitoba

Friday, August 9,   Cloudy, showers, chance of thunderstorms,  gusty wind in the storms, high 20

Saturday, August 10,   Sunny, calm, high 24

Sunday, August 11,  Sunny, a few afternoon clouds, high 25

PORTAGE POTATO FESTIVAL  August 9 & 10, Portage la Prairie, Manitoba

Friday, August 9,  Rain ending in the early afternoon, then clearing toward evening, breezy, high 20

Saturday, August 10, Sunny, light wind, high 24

COMPARE TO LAST WEEK’S REPORT: Prairie Weather This Week: July 29