Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – A short break from the heat comes to an end as warmer weather returns to the prairies this week.  The three or four day cool spell failed to include any significant precipitation in the agricultural south, though northwestern Alberta did get some beneficial rainfall, as did the boreal forests, and there was also some significant rainfall in southern Manitoba, particularly near the city of Winnipeg.

Unfortunately, this week looks to be just as dry with nothing more than a few showers or thundershowers punctuating an overall dry weather pattern. After a strong start to the season, crops are again stressed for moisture, and this week will bring little relief.

Furthermore, hot weather returns as temperatures again reach the high 20s and low 30s across the southern prairies all week long.   The hottest day across the southern prairies will likely be Thursday, when temperatures could hit 35 or higher, south of Regina:

Another indication of the need for significant rain is falling upstream reservoir levels.   The level of the Oldman Reservoir near Pincher Creek has again fallen below average:

Further east, the reservoirs are in better shape, with above average levels.  However, as that water makes its way through the system, levels are bound to fall, as they have upstream. Unless there is rain. And for that, we’ll have to wait.

In Alberta, only 40 percent of soil moisture is rated good to excellent in the south, and just 29 percent in the central region, according to the most recent Alberta Crop Report.

While for most, the rain can’t come soon enough, some areas have been hit harder than others.    The crop report shows that in just one week (July 16 to July 23) , crop conditions deteriorated from 73 percent good to excellent to 55 percent good to excellent.   Rain is needed to stop this decline.

It’s a similar story in southwestern Saskatchewan, where there has been significant deterioration in crops due to dry weather:

Next week across the prairies, rainfall is expected to be below average, and across southern Alberta and Saskatchewan, temperatures will climb above average.   While southern Manitoba can expect temperatures in the normal range this week, central and northern Manitoba will likely exceed long term averages.

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The week will look something like this:

Monday:

A surface low in northern Alberta will provide beneficial morning rainfall to the Peace region and Grande Prairie.  In the afternoon, the low moves to the northeast, and brings rain to the forests of northern Alberta.   A secondary low develops just southeast of Calgary, and could trigger some afternoon showers or thundershowers in the foothills, and between Calgary and Red Deer.   Saskatchewan and Manitoba remain dry.   Afternoon temperatures will rise to the high 20s in southern Alberta and southern Manitoba, and the low 30s in southern Saskatchewan.

Tuesday:

Lingering showers are possible in the early morning in central and southern Alberta, with more light precipitation in western and northern Saskatchewan.   Manitoba stays dry until late afternoon, when a disturbance pushes moisture into southwestern Manitoba.   Humidity will be high, and the atmosphere will feel heavy.   Thunderstorms with hail can’t be ruled out Tuesday evening in southern Manitoba.   There is a slight chance for scattered afternoon non-severe thunderstorms in southern Alberta and southern Saskatchewan.   Highs in the 20s are expected for Alberta,  and most of Saskatchewan.    Hot weather, with highs above 30 are expected in southeastern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba.   It will feel a lot warmer due to high humidity.

Wednesday:

Wednesday will be dry across Alberta and Saskatchewan, but the air remains humid in southern Manitoba, and thunderstorms are again possible Wednesday afternoon and evening.  Some of those Manitoba storms may produce hail.    It will be a hot day all across the southern prairies, with highs in the high 20s to low 30s.

Thursday:  

An area of rain develops near Lloydminster in the early morning, and weakens as it travels eastward to Nelson House, Manitoba by the end of the day.    South of the Yellowhead highway, the prairies will remain dry all day, though there is a slight chance of convective showers or weak thundershowers in the Alberta foothills in the late afternoon.  As mentioned above, this will be the hottest day of the week, with temperatures reaching the 30s across southern Alberta and southern Saskatchewan, especially south of the Trans Canada Highway.   Manitoba’s highs will reach the high 20s.

Friday:

Another area of light rain develops in central Alberta Friday morning, but will have little impact, as high pressure quickly builds in behind it, causing the rain to fizzle and the sky to clear.  Meantime, up north, a band of heavier rain will travel across the forest from northern Alberta to northern Manitoba during the day.   This will not provide any benefit to agricultural areas.  The hottest air will retreat south of the US border, with temperatures across the Canadian prairies reaching the low to mid 20s north of the Trans Canada highway, and the high 20s south of the TCH.

Saturday and Sunday:

As the high pressure ridge that killed the rainfall begins its own deterioration over Saskatchewan, rain may form in behind it, as a Low develops in northern Montana.  That could provide some midday Saturday rain in southern Alberta, and along the Trans Canada highway in Saskatchewan.    That rain will move into southern Manitoba for Sunday morning, with the entire region expected to clear out as high pressure builds through the day.  Highs both days across the southern prairies reach the high 20s, with 30 degree readings likely in the Medicine Hat/Swift Current areas.

Forecast for AgSmart, Olds, Alberta, July 30, 31

July 30

Mainly sunny, light wind, chance of late evening showers, high 25

July 31

Sunny, light wind, high 30

Forecast for the Strathmore Stampede Aug 2 to Aug 5:

August 2

Partly cloudy, breezy, slight chance of late night showers, high 25

August 3

Mainly sunny, light wind, high 24

August 4

Mainly sunny in the morning, increasing afternoon cloud, brisk wind, evening and overnight rain, high 28

August 5

Morning rain, clearing in the afternoon, light wind, high 24

Forecast for the Nokomis Fair, Nokomis, Saskatchewan, Aug 3:

August 3

Mostly cloudy, morning rain, chance of afternoon showers, high 21

COMPARE TO LAST WEEK: Prairie Weather this Week: July 22