Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Christmas is over, the presents are opened and put away, the tree’s taken down, and the snowbirds are pulling their rigs to the warmer climes to the south:

The above photo was captured from a highway webcam Sunday, December 29, along highway 4 south of Lethbridge.    There is no snow, and in that area, we’re counting on La Nina to come through for us with plenty of snow over the next couple of months.    However, with La Nina much weaker than desired, there are concerns.  La Nina will be weak, and it won’t last long, so we may have to lower our expectations.

By contrast, snow packs in central Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba are, for the most part, looking good.   From the Alberta foothills to the Manitoba/Ontario boundary, snowfall since November across the agricultural regions has been above average:

Not all snow seeps into the ground, some of it evaporates on sunny days. some of it melts and runs off.   So, despite the abundant snowfall, it’s impact on the prairie drought may be less than expected.  In Eastern Alberta, where the map below is shaded in light or dark blue, soil moisture levels are 150 to more than 200 percent above average.   However,  there has been little drought relief in the Edmonton area, the foothills, parts of southern and central Saskatchewan, and western Manitoba.

Not much snow’s expected in Alberta this week, and only light snow for Saskatchewan and Manitoba.   An arctic ridge of high pressure will push south, and may produce some light snow as it arrives.  The snow’s temporary.   Bitterly cold air will last longer.   By mid week, there will likely be a return to extreme cold and high wind chill across Saskatchewan and Manitoba.   The arctic ridge will also build in to Alberta, and there may be some patchy fog early Monday morning.   By Friday morning, lows in east central Alberta will be into the mid minus 30s.

Here’s what we can expect this week:

Monday

Alberta

Fog is likely through much of Alberta in the early morning, and later in the day,  the week long dry spell comes to an end in many areas.   Flurries or periods of light snow can be expected across the province.  It won’t be constant snow, and some areas may even see some breaks in the cloud from time to time.   This light snow is coming as an arctic ridge of high pressure, centred in Yukon, begins to build southward.   Highs in the far south will reach -4 to -5,  in central and northern Alberta, expect afternoon temperatures ranging from -9 to -12, in the leading edge of arctic air.

Saskatchewan

Northern Saskatchewan will see snow all day.   In the central and southern regions, it will likely be dry in the early morning, with snow moving in on a northwest wind in the afternoon.  Temperatures across the province will reach the -5 to -10 range in the afternoon, though it may feel colder in the northwest wind.   It will be cold, but not bitterly cold.   That’s still to come later in the week.

Manitoba

Monday’s rather mild in Manitoba, with highs between -3 to -5 across the province.   However, there will be snow across most of the province, with an inverted trough pushing some snow in from a Low in Ontario.   Expect the snow to be light,  with most of the accumulation happening in the late afternoon and evening.

Tuesday

Alberta

There will be more snow for central and southern Alberta Tuesday, but it will be light, and most of it will fall in the foothills west of Highway 2.   Snow can be expected in northeastern Alberta as well.   It will be considerably colder, as cold air continues to come in with the Arctic ridge.   Afternoon temperatures from Medicine Hat north will be in the mid minus teens.  South of Medicine Hat and Lethbridge, expect highs around -8 or -9.

Saskatchewan

Cold air from the arctic ridge spreads across Saskatchewan, where highs across the province will range from -11 to -15.   And, again, the wind may make it feel much colder.  Snow will fall consistently all day across northern Saskatchewan, whereas in the south, periods o flight snow or flurries are likely, especially in the afternoon.   Way up north, a strong ridge of Arctic high pressure continues to build, and will bring even colder air to Saskatchewan as the week continues.

Manitoba

Like Saskatchewan, central and northern regions will experience snow all day, and with a brisk northerly wind, blowing snow and high wind chills are possible.   In the south, particularly along the Trans Canada Highway, a westerly wind will cause the snow to fall intermittently. Across the province, highs will range from -5 to -10.

Wednesday

Alberta

Southern Alberta will continue to get some much needed snow Wednesday, and there will be snow along the foothills from the US border, as far north as Highway 16  As the Arctic ridge continues to build in, the snow will taper off by sunset.  The sky will remain cloudy going into the early evening.   Elsewhere, central and northern Alberta will be mainly snow free with a northwesterly wind.  And the cooling trend continues.  Highs across the province will only reach the mid teens, and the wind may make it feel even colder.

Saskatchewan

The slow-motion invasion of arctic air continues, with highs in the mid minus teens across Saskatchewan.   Again, it’ll be another snowy day in northern Saskatchewan and along the Manitoba boundary.  in western Saskatchewan, expect to see sunshine through part of the day.  A west-northwest wind may generate significant wind chill.

Manitoba

A tongue of warm, moist air will remain through central Manitoba, where snow can be expected, as temperatures climb to the -7 to -10 range.    It will be colder and drier in southwestern and northern Manitoba, with highs in both regions peaking between -10 and -15.

Thursday – Sunday

The ground in southern Alberta is again dusted with snow, and there is more to come.   The map below shows snow expected until Sunday at 6 pm.    There will be accumulating snow in Alberta, south of Red Deer (green on the map), and in southern Saskatchewan, west of Chaplin and Gravelbourg.    To the east, only light amounts of snow for the rest of Saskatchewan and Manitoba, where in some areas, no snow at all is expected from now through the weekend.

 

The scale on the right side of the map shows, not the snowfall accumulation, but the water equivalent.  In other words, how much water there would be if the snow melted.  So, even though it’s snowing 10-15 mm of water over the Cypress Hills, it doesn’t automatically translate into 10-15 cm of snow.    Factors such as temperature, humidity, available moisture, types of snowflakes, and wind all factor into accumulations.   So, they will vary.

Next question:  When does the snow fall?   Most of it will fall Friday night and Saturday.  A low pressure system in the Pacific will spread moisture along the west coast.  Some of that moisture will travel through Washington, Idaho, and Montana, pushing north into the BC interior, Alberta, and southwestern Saskatchewan:

 

 

Thursday:

Alberta

Clouds, light snow, fog, mist, will slowly end as an Arctic ridge continues to build southward.  In most of Alberta, the sky will clear, though clouds will stubbornly hang on in the south.   Snowfall accumulations will be minor.   It will stay cold all day,  with highs in most of the province below -10.  From Calgary north,  -15 may be the warmest it gets.   If you have vehicles with weak batteries, you may want to plug them in Thursday night, especially in the Lloydminster and Grande Prairie areas, where temperatures could drop below -30.

Saskatchewan

It’s staying cold all day in Saskatchewan, with highs across the province ranging from -15 to -20.   Midday snow in the Cypress Hills will taper off, and as arctic High pressure strengthens,  any remaining clouds in Saskatchewan should be gone late in the afternoon and evening.  Wind chill values in Saskatchewan in the evening could drop to -40, in areas where the sky clears.  ECCC is likely to issue extreme cold warnings.

Manitoba

The cold weather is entrenched over Manitoba as well, with highs near -20 across the province.   Some areas of the province, particularly central regions,  will be under cloud cover until late in the day when the strengthening Arctic high clears the sky.   Temperatures Monday night are likely to remain above -30, but will likely feel colder due to the wind.

 

Friday:

Alberta

Friday starts off cold and dry.   Most of the province will be clear, due to the big Arctic high, but early in the day clouds will move into southwestern Alberta ahead of the Pacific moisture that arrives late Friday afternoon and continues into Saturday, as shown in the animated map above.   The snow should begin south of highway 3 by late afternoon, spreading as far north as Calgary by midnight, then continuing further north early Saturday morning.    The clouds and snow will moderate the effects of the Arctic high, so temperatures in Alberta will peak near -10 in the south, but will continue to fall in the -15 to -20 range further north as the clouds and snow don’t’ arrive until later in the day.   For expected accumulations, refer to the maps above.

Saskatchewan:

Sunny and cold.  That’s about it.  At least until the late afternoon, when some cloud can be expected in southwestern Alberta, ahead of the Pacific moisture which will spread snow across the southwest late at night and on Saturday.   After midday highs in the -20 to -25 range, temperatures are likely to fall to the -30s by sunset.   The map below shows temperatures expected at 9:00 pm Friday night.  -30s are widespread across Saskatchewan.

Manitoba

Referring to the map above, it will be cold in Manitoba, though -20s will be more common than -30s, as seen in Saskatchewan.   It’s still put-the-horses-and-cows-to-bed weather, and the wind chill will undoubtedly make it feel colder.  As discussed above, Manitoba will see very little precipitation in this forecast period,  and indeed Friday will be dry.

 

Saturday

Alberta

As shown in the animated map above,  a Pacific low will spread moisture into southern Alberta, and snow can be expected across most of the agricultural regions of the province.  Accumulations will vary, and the snow will taper off as the day goes on.   Higher elevations in the foothills and Cypress Hills can anticipate higher accumulations, due to the upslope effect generated by the Arctic High pressure still present over Saskatchewan.   Mild and moist Pacific air aloft could boost temperatures in the mountains and foothills to near zero.   The rest of Alberta will have to deal with highs below -10 in the south, and closer to -15 to -20 in central and northern regions.

Saskatchewan

Some of the Pacific moisture that will reach Alberta Saturday will spill over into southwestern Saskatchewan, with an upslope effect enhancing snowfall totals in the Cypress Hills.  The rest of the province should remain dry and cold, with variable amounts of cloud.  Highs of -10 to -15 can be expected in the snowy regions of the southwest, while the rest of the province will struggle to get above -20.

Manitoba

As the Saskatchewan Arctic high slowly slides toward Manitoba, it gets colder.   No snow is expected, and most areas will be sunny.   But very cold.   Afternoon highs across most of Manitoba will range from -20 to -25.   Saturday night, most of Manitoba will endure low temperatures below -30.

 

Sunday

Alberta

Alberta will get a break from snow on Sunday, though the sky should remain cloudy most of the day.   A few afternoon flurries will develop over the foothills and perhaps in the Edmonton area, but accumulations should be minor, as there is no organized storm system to bring in the precipitation.  It should be light snowfall, generated by an upslope flow around yet another Arctic high developing in the Territories.    It again looks like mild Pacific air aloft will warm the higher terrain of the mountains and the foothills to near zero, while lower elevations will be much colder, with highs near -15.

Saskatchewan

Disturbances that generated Saturday’s snow in Alberta will drift across the province Saturday, so brief periods of light snow or flurries can be expected  across both southern and northern regions of the province.   Most of central Saskatchewan could remain dry.   The arctic high that kept the province so cold through the week will drift into southern Manitoba, but it looks like another one is about to follow through during the week, so there is only slight relief from the cold, with Sunday’s highs from -10 in the south to -20 in the north.

Manitoba

Temperatures across most of Manitoba at breakfast time will be in the -30s, as the Arctic high pressure moves out of Saskatchewan and into southern Manitoba.   This may be the coldest day of the season so far, as in most areas, highs will remain below -20.    Snowfall is not expected.   If you need to escape this bitter cold, there’s a non-stop flight to Phoenix from the Winnipeg airport at 5:00 pm.

 

 

COMPARE TO LAST WEEK: Prairie Weather This Week – Dec 23