Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – It’s Christmas week, and by far, the biggest question is: “Will we have a White Christmas?”     The answer is…it depends.   First…let’s look at what defines a White Christmas.   According to Environment Canada, we have a white Christmas when there is a) at least 2 cm of snow on the ground, or b) snow falling from the sky. If both criteria are met, it’s known as a Perfect Christmas.

It will be a warm week and some snow will disappear,  but it’s probably safe to say that if you have 4 or more cm on the ground where you are, you’ll have a White Christmas.   This means there is no chance of a White Christmas for most of southern Alberta.

There is no snow in much of southern Alberta, and none is expected before Christmas Day.     Elsewhere across the prairies, there is plenty of snow on the ground, and most of Alberta, all of Saskatchewan and Manitoba should expect a white Christmas.

And, in terms of snow falling from the sky on Christmas Day, there won’t be much, except perhaps in northeastern Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba.   There could be a mix of rain and snow in southern Saskatchewan, and freezing rain in southern Manitoba (doesn’t count).

Looking beyond Christmas week, we may have to lower our expectations for the long-anticipated La Nina.   It is still expected to develop, though it will be weak, and short-lived.  A typical La Nina would bring colder than average weather to western Canada, but this outlook from Environment Canada shows the opposite.  It forecasts warmer than average weather on the western prairies, and average temperatures in Manitoba and northern Saskatchewan.

However, the outlook through to the end of February maintains a forecast of above average precipitation, which for the prairies would, of course, be mostly snow.

Here, then, is the Christmas week forecast for the Prairies:

RECENT: Redefining Farm-to-Table

Monday

Alberta

The warm weather that arrived on the weekend will continue Monday, with a westerly wind keeping the air dry, and bringing in mild Pacific air.   No storm systems will be present in Alberta, and temperatures across the province will be above average.   Dense fog is expected in the morning,  through central and northern regions of Alberta.   Because of all this moisture in the air, it will be rather mild early in the day.  Early morning lows in the southern half of the province could remain near or above zero,  and it won’t be much colder in the north.  In the afternoon, the fog is gone, and highs will climb above the melting point across the province, except for areas along the Saskatchewan boundary north of Suffield.  In southern Alberta, double digit highs are possible.

Saskatchewan

Unlike Alberta, the wind will blow from the south in Saskatchewan, but like Alberta, it will be warmer than average.   Widespread fog may redevelop early in the morning over southern Saskatchewan.  Highs across the entire province will come in near zero, with slightly warmer (+5ish) highs in the southwest.   High points in the Cypress Hills may tap into warmer air aloft, leading to highs in the high single digits.    The conditions are there for some patchy freezing rain in parts of central and northern Saskatchewan.   If it’s cloudy at your location, check weather warnings for possible freezing rain.

Manitoba

High pressure slowly drifting from the northwest to the southeast across the province will keep the sky mainly clear until the late afternoon, when clouds are likely to form.  However, the only area where a completely overcast sky is expected is in the northern half of Manitoba.    There will be no precipitation anywhere in Manitoba on Monday.   Highs in the south will rise to -5 to -10, reaching only -10 to -15 in the north.

Tuesday

Alberta

In the morning, a southerly wind and sunshine.  In the afternoon,  the wind shifts to the west, southern Alberta will see chinook cloud, and it will be warm.   The province will be dry, except for a small area just northeast of Edmonton, where freezing rain can’t be ruled out in the afternoon and evening.   Pay close attention to weather warnings if you plan to travel in this area on Christmas Eve.   Highs as warm as 10 are possible south of Calgary.  In the rest of the province, expect highs between -5 and +5.

Saskatchewan

Across the province, it will be unseasonably warm, with highs near zero, though it will be cooler in the coulees and other low lying areas.   Precipitation of any kind is unlikely across the province Christmas Eve day, though there is a slight chance of freezing rate late at night, near midnight, in the Lloydminster area.

Manitoba

Central Manitoba will be under cloud cover most of the day, with a rain/snow mix possible east and northeast of Lake Winnipeg.   The chance is slim, and if this precipitation occurs, it will have no impact on agricultural areas.   It will be a warm Christmas Eve day, as temperatures in Manitoba will peak near zero across most regions.

Wednesday

Alberta

The warm spell continues on Christmas Day.   Temperatures across the province will peak near zero Christmas afternoon, though it will be cooler over the higher elevations of the Rockies.  Southern Alberta is also an exception, as highs will rise well into the high single digits in the Lethbridge area….as far north as Barons, and as far south as the US border.  No precipitation of any kind is expected at any time Wednesday.

Saskatchewan

A collision of air masses could produce some light snow or rain in parts of southern Saskatchewan in the midday.   Mild Pacific air will invade western Saskatchewan, but on the eastern side, there will be a southerly wind, with air circulating around a ridge of high pressure to the east.   Where these two air masses meet,  we can expect moisture to develop.   Rain in southwestern Saskatchewan, and snow in the northeastern part of the province.  By late afternoon, the light rain in the south will turn to snow and move slowly into Manitoba in the evening.   The incoming mild Pacific air will boost afternoon temperatures above the melting point south of the Yellowhead highway.   To the north, it will also be warm, with highs between -5 and 0.

Manitoba

Expect a cloudy day, with snow in northern and  northeastern Manitoba, and some rather rare Christmas moisture in the Red River valley.   Rare in that it could involve rain, or a rain/snow mix.  That precipitation will intensify toward evening, and may affect travel between the Red River Valley and Ontario.   As temperatures will be near zero, it’s a tough call to forecast precipitation type, so while rain or a rain/snow mix seems most likely, be prepared for anything, including snow or freezing rain.

Toward the end of the week and the weekend, dry weather remains over most of central and southern Alberta, but there is a chance of precipitation for northern Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.  This map shows expected snowfall accumulation by Sunday evening.

 

Thursday

Alberta

The warm, dry weather continues on Boxing Day in Alberta.   Expect to see considerable cloud cover, but the wind will remain from the west, particularly along the foothills, so the drying downslope effect will remain.   And the warming effect sticks around, as well, with highs in southern Alberta once again exceeding the melting point everywhere south of the Trans Canada highway, with highs close to 10 possible in the Lethbridge area.  The warm air will extend northwest along the foothills.   East of there, in central and northern Alberta, expect highs between 0 and -5.

Saskatchewan

It’ll be a dry day across most of Saskatchewan Boxing Day.   There is a chance of rain or snow developing in the Cypress Hills.  Moist air being fed in from a system in the US Pacific northwest, will be forced to rise by the elevation of the hills, and that could lead to some very isolated precipitation, and in some areas, it will be warm enough for rain.   Again, that is confined to the southwestern corner of the province in the late afternoon.   However, in the evening, the moisture becomes a big more widespread, so light snow can be expected west of Moose Jaw toward the Alberta boundary and south to the US border.   Other than the above freezing temperatures in the southwest, most of Saskatchewan will see highs near or just below zero.

Manitoba

There will be a big contrast in temperature across Manitoba’s agricultural south on Boxing Day.   Temperatures near the Saskatchewan boundary may not get above -10.   Along the Ontario boundary, it may warm as high as +5, due to mild air coming in from the south along the eastern side of the province.   In the north, highs between 0 and -10 can be expected.  East of the Red River Valley, and as far north as Island Lake, precipitation is likely.   And as surface temperatures in these areas could exceed zero,  snow or a mix of rain and snow will likely be the dominant forms of precipitation due to sub-freezing air aloft.

 

Friday

Alberta

The dry spell for Alberta continues Friday, and it will remain warm.   Highs Friday will be very similar to those on Thursday, with a pocket of very warm air south of the Trans Canada highway, where high single digit temperatures are likely.   Temperatures will exceed the melting point along the foothills toward Grande Prairie, and along the highway 2 corridor toward Edmonton and Athabasca.  Elsewhere, highs in Alberta will range between 0 and -10.

Saskatchewan

The mild weather continues, especially south of the Trans Canada highway, where highs could peak between 0 and 5.   Elsewhere, it will be cooler, but given the time of year, not cold.   Highs ranging from -5 to -10 will be widespread across Saskatchewan.      Snow, while not widespread, can be expected in parts of central and southeastern Saskatchewan through the day.  In most areas, accumulations should be light.  However, a Low will move toward Saskatoon in the afternoon, and from Saskatoon to Prince Albert, 5 to 10 cm of snow can’t be ruled out.

Manitoba

Manitoba can expect snow and rain on Friday.   Warm air continues to circulate around a system to the east, which will boost temperatures above the melting point in southeastern Manitoba. West of Winnipeg, snow is expected.  Accumulations should be light, but there may be disruptions to travel.  Highs of 0 to 5 can be expected in southern Manitoba and the Interlake, and further north, it’s also mild with highs just below the freezing point.

Saturday

Alberta

A low that moved into central Saskatchewan Friday will spin around northern Saskatchewan Saturday, and spread snow back into northern Alberta.  It’s unlikely that the snow will come any farther south than Slave Lake.   In central and southern regions, a dry westerly flow will continue, and those regions will remain free of precipitation.   The dry spell continues.   Highs across the province will be near zero, though it will again be warm in the south, where temperatures will rise above the melting point south of Calgary, and achieve the high single digits in southern Alberta south of highway 3.

Saskatchewan

The Low that moved into the Saskatoon area Friday will meander northward, and snow is expected in the northern half of Saskatchewan all day.   Accumulations will vary, but in most areas, about 5 cm of fresh snow are expected.   In the south, it stays dry, and it will cool down somewhat.    Except for areas adjacent to the Montana border where highs will climb above zero,  highs across Saskatchewan will range between 0 and -10.    The colder weather will happen in the coulees and other low lying areas, such as the Qu’Appelle Valley.

Manitoba

The temperature pattern in place all week continues.   East of Lake Winnipeg, expect highs rising to 0 to +5, and mild weather elsewhere, with afternoon temperatures near or just below zero.  The rain east of the lakes will finally end, as it moves north and east toward Hudson Bay.    A low in northern Saskatchewan will provide snow to the northwestern quarter of Manitoba, and in the far north, that area of snow will stretch east toward Churchill and Hudson Bay.

 

Sunday

Alberta

Scattered snow or flurries are expected in northern Alberta, generated by a weakening low in northern Saskatchewan.    The rest of the province will have another dry day, except for the far southwestern corner.   Waterton, Crowsnest, Pincher Creek, Chief Mountain may all get some snow in afternoon, and that will spread eastward along the Montana border during the evening.  The snow is coming from a Pacific system crossing the northwestern US.    While the heavier snow will fall in Montana, up to 10 cm can’t be ruled out in the above mentioned locations in southwestern Alberta.     The day will also be marked by a return of colder weather, particularly in southern Alberta, east of Highway 2.   Afternoon highs there could remain below -10, with temperatures climbing closer to the melting point elsewhere in Alberta.

Saskatchewan

The low in northern Saskatchewan weakens, and fizzles out during the day.   This will leave a few periods of flurries or light snow in the far northern part of the province.   Elsewhere, it will be dry, with clouds, and a light wind.  In the late evening, a system spreading snow across the Montana hi-line may lead to a few flurries in the far southwestern region of Saskatchewan, but snow will remain light.   It will be a considerably colder day, with highs of only -10 or cooler along the Trans Canada highway.   It will be warmer to the south, with highs near zero, and to the north, with highs from -5 to -10.

Manitoba

Dry weather returns to most of the province, with periods of light snow confined to the permafrost north of the lakes.   In the south, expect mainly sunny conditions in the afternoon.   It’s one of those strange days when southern Manitoba will be cooler than the north.   Highs oof -5 to -10 are forecast for southern Manitoba and the Interlake.   North of there, it’s warmer, wtih highs near zero.

 

Getting Colder in the New Year

Nothing is guaranteed, but it looks like 2025 may start with an Arctic outbreak for western Canada.    On this first map, we note strong Arctic highs developing in the north, loading up with very cold air, which may be sent southward.

 

 

Note the strong High in northern Nevada.   This, combined with the arctic highs in the north, will provide a path for cold air to travel southward.   This next map shows temperatures early in the morning on December 31.    The cold air extends all the way south to northern Arizona and New Mexico.

 

We’ll monitor this, and update with better, more up-to-date information on Monday morning’s post.

 

 

 

 

COMPARE TO LAST WEEK: Prairie Weather This Week – Dec 16