Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – From drought to deluge. What’s next? More heat!
We have traded one extreme for the other. The latest Canadian Drought Monitor shows only 11 percent of the prairies remain in drought. And the map below would normally give us a super-positive outlook for the rest of the growing season. Not this time. We’ve gone from drought to excess.
Compare the map above to the one below. This second map shows the percentage of average precipitation for this growing season (after April 1). The Peace region is the only major agricultural area where precipitation has been below average. For the rest of the prairies, it’s either above average, or WAY above average:
The threat that dominated prairie agriculture for the better part of the last decade, drought, has disappeared from the map almost entirely. The new threat is too much of everything.
The 2026 prairie growing season arrived with genuine optimism. Soil moisture was in good shape across most of the region after years of drought, and early crop ratings looked promising. What followed was something else entirely. A stalled, hyperactive jet stream turned spring and early summer into a relentless parade of severe weather, with tornadoes, hailstorms, and rainfall events that in some cases dropped more than 250 mm in a single week.
The damage has been direct and significant. Hailstorms across southern and central Alberta brought billiard-ball-sized hailstones, leaving some farms reporting 85 to 90 per cent crop losses. The Manitoba Agricultural Services Corporation and the Alberta Financial Services Corporation are both anticipating sharp increases in crop insurance claims, and the full accounting hasn’t started yet. Saturated fields and prolonged submersion have killed canola and wheat outright in the worst-hit areas, with pooled water still visible across large stretches of Manitoba and east-central Saskatchewan. Livestock producers aren’t exempt either — overland flooding has stranded cattle, compromised pasture access, and contributed to foot rot cases in animals forced to stand in saturated ground for weeks.
The operational damage compounds the physical losses. Waterlogged soils have kept heavy sprayers out of fields at critical windows, allowing weeds to flourish. Some of those windows won’t come back.
The concern moving forward is what happens if the wet pattern reasserts itself before harvest.
There is at least some good news in this week’s outlook. The weather pattern is changing to a more stable regime, meaning fewer showers and storms. And it also means heat. A lot of heat.
Monday
Peace Region
Monday is the best field day the Peace Region has seen in several days. The upper trough that kept Alberta wet and unsettled through the weekend is lifting north, and clearing skies are arriving behind it. Expect mostly sunny conditions with highs in the low-to-mid twenties. Fog patches are possible in low-lying areas and river valleys through the early morning as overnight temperatures drop under clear skies. Get moving once it clears and use the day well. The pattern stays reasonable through Tuesday before the next disturbance organizes later in the week.
Alberta
Monday brings genuine relief after a stretch of active and disruptive weather. Clear skies and a stable airmass settle over most of the province as the southwest upper flow across the Rockies maintains dry weather over the southern half of Alberta. Central Alberta temperatures will reach the low to mid-20s. In southern Alberta, it will be considerably warmer with highs ranging from 29 to 34. A broad upper ridge and southwesterly upper flow will continue to produce mainly clear skies, and midlevel warming over southern Alberta will cap most daytime convective activity.
The main exception is northern Alberta, where showers are expected early Monday morning, followed by convective showers and storms in the afternoon. Accumulations will be minimal, and temperatures in the north should rise to the low 20s. However, with soils already saturated, even a few mm of rain is unhelpful.
For the rest of the province, Monday is a high-priority work day. It’s the clearest, calmest stretch Alberta has had in nearly two weeks. Scouting, herbicide applications, and any pending equipment work are all feasible. Edmonton’s June rainfall record was broken earlier this season, and many fields across central Alberta are still recovering from that saturation. Monday’s dry, warm conditions help.
Saskatchewan
The heat event that developed over the weekend continues Monday. Highs will be in the mid-30s, with the humidex in the low 40s. It’s stifling heat. Plan your scouting and spray work for early morning. Conditions will be uncomfortable and potentially unsafe by early afternoon.
The weather system responsible for the heat is still anchored in place Monday. There will be plenty of thunderstorm energy in the afternoon, but there will be a strong cap in place to curtail most severe storm development. Any storms that do break through the cap, though, will escalate very quickly, and are likely to produce severe supercells with damaging winds and very large hail. If this does happen, the likely location will be southern Saskatchewan, near the US border. Watch Environment Canada alerts closely through Monday afternoon if you’re in the south.
Manitoba
Manitoba is still locked in the heat event Monday. Temperatures will climb to the low to mid-30s south of the Trans Canada Highway, where it will also be particularly humid. North of the highway, it won’t be much cooler, with widespread highs from 29 to 31 degrees.
The wet conditions through early July have increased disease threats for most crops across Manitoba. Hail caused crop damage in parts of the southwest, with baseball-sized hail reported near Killarney, and it’s expected that damage will lead to reduced cereal yields in affected areas. Haying in parts of the northwest has stopped as fields remain too wet. Cases of foot rot have been reported in cattle with excessive moisture leading to hoof damage. If you are running cattle on sodden pastures, inspect hooves regularly and separate any affected animals promptly.
Do not schedule field operations for Monday afternoon. It will simply be too hot. Work early, then step back.
Tuesday
Peace Region
A continuation of Monday’s pleasant pattern. Sunny skies and highs in the low-to-mid twenties make Tuesday another strong work day. This is likely the best two-day window of the week for the Peace, so if you have pending herbicide applications, prioritize them now. Winds remain light, and the airmass is stable.
Alberta
Tuesday stays largely dry and warm across most of Alberta, though a cloud deck builds in through the day. Calgary reaches the low 20s under cloudy skies after a cloudier overnight. Edmonton will get to the mid-twenties. Clear skies and the stable southwesterly upper flow continue to keep central and northern Alberta largely dry. The pattern is calm enough to support field operations through most of the province. Take advantage of it, because showers return later in the week.
Saskatchewan
Relief from the extreme conditions will arrive gradually. Temperatures are expected to ease back toward seasonal averages on Monday, while the heat may linger further east until Tuesday or Wednesday. Daytime highs will remain warm through the rest of the week, staying in the mid-to-upper 20s. This is a significant improvement from the weekend’s heat and represents the best spray day in central and southern Saskatchewan in over a week.
Tuesday morning is your window. Get herbicide applications done and assess any storm or hail damage from the past week before it’s obscured by crop growth.
Manitoba
The heat may linger in Manitoba until Tuesday or Wednesday. Portage la Prairie comes down to 30 degrees Tuesday with a chance of overnight showers. Winnipeg is near 28 with a humidex of 32. Uncomfortable but considerably more manageable than the weekend. Overnight temperatures begin to drop, which is important. It’s the stubborn overnight warmth that causes the most cumulative heat stress in canola.
Use Tuesday’s slightly cooler conditions to get into fields where you can and assess damage from the persistently wet weather.
Wednesday
Peace Region
Wednesday brings a slight change as clouds increase and the chance of hit-and-miss showers rises, though most parts of the Peace Region are likely to stay dry. Highs remain in the low twenties. It’s not a washout day by any means, but keep tabs on the afternoon sky. Severe weather is not expected, but just to be safe, complete any critical spray work in the morning.
Alberta
It will be a rather quiet day throughout most of Alberta, with temperatures rising to the high 20s under the sunshine. The province is in the quieter part of the week before Thursday’s upper trough arrives. Wednesday is Alberta’s best opportunity to make meaningful field progress. It will be warm, mostly dry, and with enough sunshine to provide ideal conditions for herbicide applications. That said, areas from Edmonton south to the US border carry a risk of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. As usual for this time of year, plan the bulk of your work for the morning, and watch the sky in the afternoon.
Saskatchewan
Clouds move in Wednesday as the thermal ridge that supported the heat begins to relax. Highs will reach the mid-20s. The overall pattern quiets considerably after Monday’s heat. Saskatchewan remains on the western edge of the departing Manitoba low. The province will continue to see periods of cloud and scattered showers for another day or two as bands of moisture rotate around the weakening circulation, though many communities will still see extended periods of dry weather between showers.
Wednesday’s cloudy, moderate conditions are ideal for fungicide applications. Temperatures in the mid-20s with high cloud reduce spray evaporation.
Manitoba
Afternoon temperatures retreat to the low 20s across southern Manitoba on Wednesday. The heat event is effectively over for the province, and temperatures are back within a manageable range. A few showers are possible as the low-pressure system tracking along the northern prairies feeds some moisture back into southwestern Manitoba.
Fields that were too wet or too hot to access last week can now receive attention. Weed control has been a challenge all season due to wet, windy conditions, and warm temperatures through the heat event may have pushed some crops and weeds past the optimal application window.
Thursday
Peace Region
A quiet day for the Peace. Bright sunshine is expected Thursday, with highs in the upper 20s. The upper trough that brings showers to the foothills is expected to pass primarily through the southern half of the province, leaving the Peace in a less active pattern. A reasonable day for field operations. Watch the sky through the afternoon but don’t expect widespread disruption.
Alberta
The upper trough arrives Thursday, bringing showers to the foothills. It’s expected the steadier showers will remain over the higher terrain, kept there in part by an easterly wind. However, in the afternoon, daytime heating may generate some convective showers and storms east of Highway 2 across central and southern Alberta. Temperatures will climb to the high-20s across central and south-central Alberta. South of Highway 3, expect highs in the 30s. The shower risk Thursday is not as dramatic as the events of the previous week, but it is enough to disrupt spray operations and potentially delay any remaining herbicide work.
For Alberta, this is the main weather interruption of the week. Plan field operations around it. If you have critical applications to make, target Wednesday or Friday. Thursday’s showers are the primary risk day.
Saskatchewan
By late in the week and into the weekend, another weak trough of low pressure is expected to move through the northern Prairies. This should bring another round of variable cloudiness with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to northern Saskatchewan. The map below indicates where the rain will fall on Thursday, and how much:
In the south, where the weather stays dry and the sun shines, afternoon temperatures will reach the mid to high 20s. For most producers, Thursday is a watch-and-see day in Saskatchewan. Conditions won’t be ideal for field operations, but widespread disruption is also not expected. Scout fields in the morning and assess whether spray windows open in the afternoon.
Manitoba
Temperatures across agricultural regions of southern Manitoba reach the mid to high 20s Thursday. The rainfall shown on the map above will occur in the early morning, south of the Trans Canada Highway, with drier weather returning in the afternoon. Some areas could get 20 mm or more. Because the ground remains saturated, this new rain may wipe out yet another day of fieldwork. Elsewhere, though, it’s a good field day for Manitoba producers. With the heat event behind them, temperatures are now in a more comfortable range – warm enough to support spray applications and scouting without the health risks of intense, warning-level heat.
Saturated soils have also made it difficult to get sprayers into fields, allowing weeds to gain ground. Excess rainfall has leached nitrogen from the soil, leaving some crops showing signs of disease despite fertilizer applications.
Friday
Peace Region
After a sunny, quiet start to the day, rain returns to the Peace Friday afternoon. That will limit afternoon temperatures to the high teens or low 20s. The warmest weather of the day could occur in the early afternoon, rather than at the usual time later in the day. The shower risk is real but not certain. Keep an eye on weather watches and warnings, and be prepared to adjust your field schedule accordingly. Morning conditions are definitely your best window for fieldwork.
Alberta
Friday sees some improvement over Thursday as the upper trough moves east. Highs return to the mid 20s under a mix of sun and cloud. In southern Alberta, south of the Trans Canada Highway, expect highs in the low 30s. The shower risk lingers through the day and intensifies in the afternoon with convective activity – scattered, random showers and storms. Southern producers making late herbicide applications should target Friday, but watch the sky in the afternoon.
Saskatchewan
The weak upper trough continues to affect Saskatchewan Friday, with a mix of sun and cloud and a slight risk of scattered showers. Highs across the south will range from 29 to 33 degrees. North of the Trans Canada Highway, temperatures will peak in the high 20s. This is not a major weather event, but it keeps conditions unsettled enough to require flexibility. There is a small, isolated risk of thunderstorms triggered by daytime heating, but a regional high-pressure system is expected to keep the storms very scattered, with no widespread impact on ongoing regional flood situations.
Manitoba
Manitoba warms again Friday ahead of a rebuilding ridge. Temperatures across the province will reach the high 20s in the afternoon. Conditions are largely dry, and the forecast looks good for field operations. The contrast between this warm, dry Friday and the flooded, hail-battered situation of the past two weeks is significant. Use it. Fields that have had a chance to firm up with several days of heat and sun may now be accessible for the first time in weeks.
Saturday and Sunday
Peace Region
The weekend shapes up well for the Peace Region. Saturday brings a mix of sun and cloud with highs in the low 20s, and Sunday stays similar. There is a slight chance of showers Saturday night and early Sunday morning, though accumulations will be minor. The broad upper ridge strengthening across the eastern Prairies keeps conditions settled across the northwest. A good weekend to catch up on any field operations that were delayed by the unsettled pattern earlier in the week – scouting, fence work, and hay management in areas where forage fields are firming up.
Alberta
Saturday and Sunday bring warm and mostly settled conditions back to Alberta. There will be rain in the northern forests both days, and a chance of showers Saturday night between Edmonton and the Rockies.
By early next week, an upper-level ridge is forecast to strengthen across much of the Prairies, providing several days of dry weather, abundant sunshine, and temperatures generally ranging from the upper 20s to the low 30s. Most of the province will see sunshine and temperatures in the mid-to-upper twenties. It will be warmer south of Highway 3, where temperatures will climb into the low 30s. The pattern heading into next week looks favourable for field operations and hay management across the province, which will be welcome news for producers trying to make up lost time.
Saskatchewan
Saskatchewan enters the weekend under another building ridge. Highs Saturday and Sunday sit in the high across the province, with some southern regions reaching the low 30s, with mostly sunny conditions. There will be rain in the far northern forests, but the rest of the province will be sunny, dry, and hot.
This is the cleanest stretch of the week for field operations across Saskatchewan. In eastern Saskatchewan and the Parkland areas where flooding was most severe, the weekend offers the first real opportunity in several weeks to evaluate how badly affected fields are actually performing.
Manitoba
Manitoba also appears to be entering a much warmer and more settled weather pattern heading into the weekend. Sunshine and steadily rising temperatures are expected, with highs reaching the upper 20s across southern portions of the province.
The combination of heat earlier this week and dry, sunny conditions through the weekend will accelerate canopy drying in canola fields that have been holding moisture. That’s a double-edged situation. It reduces disease potential going forward but does nothing for fields that were already infected during the wet weeks before the heat event.
EVENT FORECASTS
Manitoba Stampede and Exhibition, July 17-19, Morris, MB
July 17 – Increasing cloud, high 29
July 18 – A mix of sun and cloud, high 29
July 19 – Morning showers, afternoon sun, breezy, high 31
Moose Mountain Pro Rodeo, July 18-19, Kennedy, SK
July 18 – Increasing cloud, showers, chance of thunderstorms, high 28
July 19 – Sunny, windy, gusts to 60 km/h, high 24
READ: Hail Report: Farmers assess damage as baseball-sized hail hits parts of the Prairies
