Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Hotter weather, less rain, but not storm-free.
A ridge building over the western Prairies pushes temperatures above average through the week, but the jet stream continues to hug the US-Canada border. That keeps the door open for near-daily thunderstorm clusters rather than a prolonged, rain-free heat wave. Expect a pattern of morning development giving way to stronger, sometimes severe afternoon storms, repeating through the week with a lull early and a reload by the weekend.
The weekend was quite active, especially over Alberta, with a series of severe storms, one of which produced a tornado near Rocky Mountain House. It’s very unusual for a tornado to be picked up by a highway camera, but it happened – early Saturday evening:
As mentioned here last week, this is a growing season most producers haven’t seen in years. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s June assessment found no drought anywhere in the Prairie agricultural region for the first time since March 2020.
Saskatchewan has 36% of its cropland carrying surplus soil moisture. Alberta’s spring wheat is 70% good-to-excellent, Saskatchewan’s wheat 85%. Of course, all the rain has generated other problems: standing water, delayed spraying, and rising disease pressure in wheat, canola, and pulses.
Monday
Peace Region
Smoke drifting down from wildfires in the Northwest Territories keeps skies hazy through the morning, with air quality advisories possible for Grande Prairie and Peace River. Behind the weekend’s wet weather system, expect a cooler, showery start Monday morning with isolated storm chances redeveloping in the afternoon. Nothing severe expected in the Peace Region Monday, but the haze may cut into daytime highs by a degree or two. Expect temperatures to reach the mid-20s.
Alberta
Rain settles into west-central Alberta through the morning as leftover moisture wraps around a departing upper low. Thunderstorms fire across central and northern Alberta, with additional development near Jasper National Park in the afternoon. Rainfall amounts could approach 20 mm in those areas directly beneath the storms. Wind gusts are the main concern in south-central Alberta, and southeastern Alberta runs hot enough to stress crops already carrying excess soil moisture. None of Monday’s storms is expected to become severe. Highs will reach the low 20s in central and northern Alberta, and the high 20s south of the Trans Canada highway.
Saskatchewan
Morning thunderstorms track east through central Saskatchewan, continuing into the afternoon with storms extending both north and south. Southern Saskatchewan sees a wind gust risk that could test standing cereals nearing head emergence. The wet weather will keep temperatures to highs in the low 20s, but temperatures could vary widely from region to region, depending upon where the showers and storms fire up. Rainfall amounts, as the map below shows, will be minimal.
Manitoba
This is the day to watch. A surface low tracks near Flin Flon by midday, with a warm front draped east and a cold front sagging south along the Saskatchewan border. High humidity and instability set up a broad severe risk for central and southern Manitoba, including large hail, damaging straight-line winds well over 100 km/h, and a tornado threat. Timing is genuinely uncertain, with the main event landing anywhere from late morning to late evening. Southern Manitoba and the Interlake also deal with high humidex values and highs in the mid to high 20s. Those highs will likely be achieved in the early afternoon, as later-day storms will provide cooling, dropping temperatures to the low 20s.
Tuesday
Peace Region
A quieter day behind Monday’s system. Expect a mix of sun and cloud with only a slim chance of an isolated shower. A large surface ridge of high pressure centred near Edmonton will keep Alberta and British Columbia dry, under a mainly sunny sky. This includes the Peace Region, where afternoon temperatures could reach 25 to 27 degrees.
Alberta
Morning thunderstorms redevelop across the province, with activity concentrating over central Alberta by afternoon. Storm intensity backs off from Monday’s levels, but expect enough instability for brief heavy downpours and lightning. By the afternoon, most of that activity will occur along the foothills from the Jasper area south to Crowsnest Pass. As a result, afternoon temperatures in the foothills will be kept to the low 20s, whereas the rest of the province can expect temperatures in the mid to high 20s. There is a chance it may even reach 30 in the Brooks area.
Saskatchewan
Widely scattered, non-severe morning storms track through southern Saskatchewan before the focus shifts to central Saskatchewan in the afternoon. A wind gust threat sets up over central Saskatchewan overnight into Tuesday, so keep that in mind, especially if you’re near the Manitoba boundary. Expect seasonable high temperatures in the mid-20s. The widely scattered showers are not expected to produce any meaningful rainfall. It should be a productive workday.
Manitoba
Pre-dawn thunderstorms linger over southern Manitoba and the Interlake as the atmosphere works to reset after Monday’s severe outbreak. By breakfast time, the wet weather will have moved into Ontario, and it will remain dry across southern Manitoba at least for several hours. In the late afternoon, some instability-related showers may pop up between Brandon and Portage La Prairie. They are likely to collapse rather quickly, as the dynamics won’t be there to support any sustained rain. A wind gust threat develops over central Manitoba in the morning, shifting to the Interlake by afternoon. Highs in the mid 20s across the province will be close to the long-term average.
\Wednesday
Peace Region
Haying? Spraying? Just saying… A building ridge will keep the sky clear, the weather dry, and the wind light….a great window to get some work done. As always, watch the afternoon sky for showers and storms, but nothing significant is expected. Other than heat. Temperatures are likely to reach 30 or higher across the Alberta and BC Peace regions.
Alberta
Morning storms hold over central Alberta before moving toward Saskatchewan. Scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms are possible later in the day across southern Alberta, but severe storms are unlikely. Southeastern Alberta starts to feel the building heat, with both humidex and daytime highs climbing. Lethbridge, Brooks, Milk River, and Medicine Hat are all expected to be hot, with highs of 30 to 33 degrees. Elsewhere in Alberta, temperatures will climb to the high 20s. This is a good day to check canola fields for early stem rot symptoms while conditions stay warm and humid, ahead of even more heat arriving Thursday.
Saskatchewan
Storms hold over the Rosetown area through the morning and afternoon, without the widespread coverage seen earlier in the week. Accumulations will be light – less than 5 mm. The rest of the province should stay dry. A relatively manageable day for field operations. In southern Saskatchewan between Swift Current and Alberta, temperatures will climb to near or above 30 degrees. Elsewhere across Saskatchewan, highs will land in the 24 to 29 degree range.
Manitoba
Afternoon thunderstorms push into central and northern Manitoba as the upper pattern shifts east. Southern Manitoba stays mostly dry through the day, a useful break for producers still working through flood recovery and fungicide applications on wheat. Highs across central and southern Manitoba should reach the high 20s, but fall short of achieving 30. In northern Manitoba, with the wetter weather, highs will only reach the low 20s.
Thursday
Peace Region
Warm and increasingly humid as the ridge peaks. Temperatures will climb to the low 30s. Storm chances stay low through the morning, though afternoon heating could spark isolated activity by evening as the broader pattern begins reloading. In the unlikely event showers or storms develop, they won’t be strong enough or last long enough to produce meaningful moisture.
Alberta
Morning thunderstorms build across the province, strongest in the foothills and central Alberta. By afternoon, severe thunderstorms are possible province-wide, the widest severe coverage of the week for Alberta. The map below shows energy available to fire up storms in the late afternoon:
Thursday will be a day to watch the afternoon sky closely through central Alberta, including the Edmonton to Calgary corridor. Watch for towering clouds to the west in the early afternoon. If you see them, prepare for stormy weather a couple of hours later.
Southeastern Alberta deals with both humidex and hot temperature thresholds, while northwestern Alberta also sees a hot temperature threat. If you’re in the foothills corridor, this is the day to have hail coverage, and storm alerts top of mind.
South of the Trans Canada highway, temperatures will reach the low 30s in the afternoon; elsewhere, expect highs in the 27-30 degree range.
Saskatchewan
Morning thunderstorm risk targets areas south of Rosetown, with hot temperatures adding stress to crops there too. Afternoon storms spread across the entire southern part of the province, with southwestern Saskatchewan carrying both humidex and hot temperature threats on top of the storm risk. The storms will strengthen as they move from west to east, so expect stronger storms to develop in the late afternoon and early evening east of Regina and well into Manitoba. It will be hot south of the Trans Canada Highway, with temperatures rising into the 30s. Elsewhere, highs will be in the 27 to 29 degree range.
Manitoba
Thursday’s a get ‘er done kind of day in agricultural Manitoba. It should be a dry, sunny day across the southern part of the province, with some afternoon showers and storms possible in the Interlake. Morning storms move through, with afternoon activity concentrated across the southern half of the province. There will be a mix of sun and cloud through the day, and the showers and storms will be widely scattered. Significant rainfall is not expected during the day. That will change in the evening and overnight. A storm system inbound from Saskatchewan will strengthen as it crosses southern Manitoba, and could produce strong storms with significant rainfall late Thursday night and into Friday. Temperatures will climb into the high 20s in the afternoon.
Friday
Peace Region
While much of the rest of Alberta sees rain on Friday, the Peace Region in both Alberta and BC stays dry with a light southwesterly wind, and temperatures will again climb to the high 20s. It will be an uneventful weather day – another day for spraying or haying.
Alberta
Morning rain covers central and southeastern Alberta, with thunderstorms developing across Alberta and a fairly significant storm threat. Southeastern Alberta again sees humidex and hot temperature concerns, as does the north. Afternoon brings additional rain to the north and northeast, with storms strengthening further, particularly across Alberta and into Saskatchewan. Afternoon rain is likely to develop between the foothills and Highway 2 between Calgary and Edson. Hot conditions persist in the south and northeast, where highs will range between 31 and 35 degrees. Highs of 27 to 30 can be expected elsewhere.
Saskatchewan
Morning thunderstorms build with southwestern Saskatchewan facing both humidex and hot temperature thresholds. Afternoon storms intensify, with a stronger threat developing across the province and humidex concerns spreading into southern Saskatchewan generally. Highs will exceed 30 degrees south of the Trans Canada Highway and reach the mid to high 20s elsewhere. Precipitation totals are difficult to estimate, but 5-10 mm in those areas that get rain would be a reasonable target.
Manitoba
Morning storms move through, with afternoon activity concentrated across the southern half of the province. There will be a mix of sun and cloud through the day, and the showers and storms will be widely scattered. Significant rainfall is not expected during the day. That will change in the evening and overnight. A storm system inbound from Saskatchewan will strengthen as it crosses southern Manitoba, and could produce strong storms with significant rainfall late Thursday night and into Friday. Localized showers and storms will keep temperatures to the low to mid 20s. Areas that remain dry will be 4 or 5 degrees warmer.
Saturday and Sunday
Peace Region
Saturday will be a fairly quiet day in the Peace, with a mix of sun and cloud, and a chance of showers. Sunday turns windier and wetter, with showers or steady rain, and a wind gust threat developing around Grande Prairie both morning and afternoon. Secure loose equipment and anything exposed in the yard before Sunday. Saturday’s highs will reach the low to mid 20s. With wetter weather returning Sunday, it will be cooler, with highs ranging from 19 in Grande Prairie to 13 in Dawson Creek, and likely even cooler in Fort St. John.
Alberta
Saturday starts with rain over northeastern Alberta and thunderstorms building province-wide, with southeastern and southern Alberta hitting both humidex and hot temperature thresholds. Afternoon rain shifts north, storms continue, and a wind gust threat develops south of Highway 3. Sunday carries that heat into the south along with wind gusts south of Highway 3 and around Grande Prairie in the morning, then wind gusts expanding into southwestern Alberta by afternoon as storms persist in central and north-central regions. On both weekend days, highs will reach the mid-30s in southeastern Alberta, and the high 20s elsewhere.
Saskatchewan
Saturday brings rain to north-central Saskatchewan in the morning, expanding across the northern half of the province by afternoon, with thunderstorms developing throughout and southern Saskatchewan under both humidex and hot temperature thresholds all day. Sunday adds rain over northern Saskatchewan in the morning. The storm threat for central and southern Saskatchewan will diminish in the afternoon. High heat and humidex values will hold over the southeast and south, and a wind gust threat developing over central Saskatchewan in the afternoon. On Saturday, most of Saskatchewan will rise to the high 20s for afternoon temperatures. Again, though, south of the Trans Canada Highway, it will be hot, with highs in the low 30s. That heat expands to the rest of the province on Sunday, when highs of 30°C or better will be widespread across the province.
Manitoba
Saturday opens with rain in the Interlake and thunderstorms developing across the province, with southern Manitoba west of the Red River Valley under both humidex and hot temperature thresholds. Afternoon rain shifts into central and southeastern Manitoba, storms continue, and the heat and humidex threat holds over the south. Sunday brings rain to central Manitoba in the morning, with a stronger storm threat over the south, and both humidex and hot temperature thresholds met there. Afternoon rain moves into southern Manitoba, with scattered showers. Heat and humidex hold, and a wind gust threat develops over the western part of the province.
COMPARE: Prairie Weather this Week – July 13
EVENT FORECASTS:
Lacombe County Agriculture and ALUS tour – July 22
Wednesday July 22 – Mainly sunny, light wind, high 25
Ag in Motion, Langham, Saskatchewan, July 21-23
July 21 – Mainly sunny, slight chance of an isolated afternoon shower, high 26
July 22 – A mix of sun and cloud, chance of showers, high 25
July 23 – Morning showers, sunny in the afternoon, high 28
