Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – More rain, storms for the western prairies.  Drier to the east.

July ends and August begins, with little change in the prairie weather.  It will warm up, but the daily threat of showers and storms remains for southern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan.  Most of the rest of the prairies will experience drier weather, thanks to a ridge of high pressure building in the upper atmosphere.

There has been abundant rainfall across the western prairies this month.    The following maps show rainfall totals from July 1 to July 27, at CoCoRaHS volunteer weather stations:

 

 

For perspective, the average rainfall for the ENTIRE month of July in Calgary is 65.7 mm

 

 

 

Edmonton’s 30 year average rainfall for all of July is 78.2 mm

 

Regina’s long term average July rainfall total is 60.9 mm

 

Saskatoon’s long term average July rainfall is 61.1 mm

 

Winnipeg’s long term average rainfall for July is 89.0 mm.

While July 2025 precipitation is well below average in southern Manitoba, it is near average in Saskatchewan and central Alberta, and higher than average in south central Alberta, particularly in the Calgary area.

 

There is more to come.   Unfortunately, much of this week’s rain will impact areas that have already received abundant precipitation (south central Alberta, southwest Saskatchewan,  with lesser amounts of rain headed toward drier areas (Manitoba).    This map shows cumulative total rainfall expected until the early evening of Sunday, August 3:

 

 

 

Here’s how the weather should play out for the week:

Monday

Alberta

Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected in southern and south central Alberta from morning to mid afternoon.  Some of the heaviest precipitation is expected between Calgary and Red Deer, west into the foothills and east to Saskatchewan.   The foothills will also see enhanced precipitation due to the upslope effect.    There is a risk of severe storms, especially in southern Alberta.  Strong straight line wind and small hail are possible in the severe storms.   A High pressure system just south of Fort McMurray will keep the northern 2/3rds of the province rain-free and mainly sunny.   Highs in Alberta will range from the mid teens to the low 20s

Saskatchewan

Like Alberta, high temperatures across Saskatchewan will reach the high teens to low 20s.   The cool weather pattern continues, along with the threat of showers in southwestern Saskatchewan, and storms in the far southeast. A system giving heavy rain and powerful thunderstorms to northeastern Montana, may push some of those storms across the border into southeastern Saskatchewan.  Most storms will be south of the Trans-Canada Highway, with a small risk of severe storms near the U.S. border. North of this zone, expect general showers and isolated rumbles of thunder.

Manitoba

Highs in southern Manitoba will reach the low 20s.  In the north, it will be a few degrees cooler with temperatures peaking in the high teens.   Most of the province will be bathed in sunshine, while rain will fall south of the Trans Canada highway, especially close to the US border.  There will be a risk of thunderstorms along the border.  Some of these storms may be strong or severe early in the day and again later on.   Rainfall along the US border will total about 5 mm, though there may be locally heavier amounts should thunderstorms develop and produce downpours.

 

Tuesday

Alberta

Sunshine returns to Alberta, boosting temperatures.  Across the province, expect highs in the low to mid twenties.   Though there will be increased sunshine, the atmosphere will be unstable, and there will be plenty of energy to generate afternoon thunderstorms, especially south of Red Deer.    It’s a moderate thunderstorm risk with the main threats being gusty wind and localized downpours.   Should the storms develop, temperatures could fall significantly due to cloud cover and evaporative cooling.    Severe storms are not expected.

Saskatchewan

Most of Saskatchewan will be dry with temperatures near or slightly below the seasonal average.  Highs will be in the mid 20s.   Under a surface high pressure system, most of the province should have a sunny Tuesday, with, again, the exception being areas along the US border.    That area could see some isolated showers or weak thunderstorms.   Wet weather is expected; severe weather is not.

Manitoba

A few showers and isolated thundershowers are possible in southern Manitoba, west and southwest of Portage La Prairie.   Severe storms are not expected.   Elsewhere, expect clouds to develop in the afternoon.   Highs Tuesday will be similar to those on Monday, with temperatures reaching the low 20s in the south, and the high teens in the north.

 

Wednesday

Alberta

Sunshine and very warm weather return to Alberta.   Thunderstorms that develop in the foothills in the early afternoon will stay over the foothills, and are not expected to move east off the higher terrain, so the rest of the province will stay dry.   This will be one of the hottest days of the month in northern Alberta, where temperatures could reach 30 degrees.   In central and southern region,  expect highs in the mid to high 20s.

Saskatchewan

Warmer weather returns to western Saskatchewan, where highs of 25-27 degrees are possible.  Elsewhere in the province, highs will be in the 23 to 25 degree range.  Most of the province will be dry, though there is a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms near the Alberta boundary.

Manitoba

For Manitoba farmers, this will be a day in which field work should continue without any weather related interruptions.   There will be no major weather threats.   Across Manitoba, it will be sunny and pleasant, with highs in the low to mid 20s across the province.

 

Thursday

Alberta

A strong upper ridge of high pressure is in place over Alberta, and Thursday will be another hot, dry, and sometimes breezy day.  In northern Alberta,  temperatures will climb to the 30 to 35 degree range.  Elsewhere, expect highs between 25 and 30.   Sunshine will be plentiful across the province, though things will change in the afternoon over the foothills.  Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the foothills.  They will be slow moving, or even stationary,  capable of producing locally heavy rainfall.  Once the storms are done, the moisture left behind could generate fog patches overnight near the foothills and just east.

Saskatchewan

Expect mainly sunny conditions.  A mildly unstable atmosphere could lead to a few very isolated thunderstorms in southeastrn regions.   The chance is slight, and severe storms are not expected.  Saskatchewan will warm up, too, as highs across the province will range from 24 to 27 degrees.    Way up in the far north, near Athabasca Lake, temperatures will peak in the low 30s.

Manitoba

Most of the province will be dry and warm with plenty of sunshine.  Highs will reach the mid 20s in most areas, from north to south.  In central Manitoba, a few non-severe thunderstorms may develop today as a warm front slides through.

 

Friday

Alberta

Some showers may develop in far northwestern Alberta in the morning, and in the southwestern foothills in the afternoon.  Otherwise, it will be another sunny, dry day in Alberta on Friday.  As we have seen in recent days, thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon over the foothills, and will either stall or move very slowly, allowing for another opportunity for localized heavy rainfall.   Ranches in the foothills will receive much of this moisture, but the rain will also flow through the watersheds, benefitting agricultural operations downstream, especially in the Bow and Oldman basins.   The areas shaded in white in the map below will reach 30 degrees or hotter on Friday:

Saskatchewan

As the map above shows, it will be another hot day in most of Saskatchewan.   The areas in white will exceed 30 degrees, while th rest of the province will reach highs of 25-30.  A few scattered showers or weak thunderstorms possible in the west and in southeastern Saskatchewan later in the day.

Manitoba

Most areas of Manitoba will remain dry, though isolated non-severe storms can’t be ruled out in central MB.  The likelihood of developing storms, though, is quite low.  As the map above shows, parts of northern Manitoba could reach 30 degrees or higher, but most of the province will peak between 25 and 30 in the afternoon.

Saturday

Alberta

A low pressure system develops in central Alberta Saturday, and rain will spread across the province from the foothills eastward.   The storm will intensify as it meanders around central Alberta.  Expect rising humidity, and a growing risk of thunderstorms in central and northern Alberta.  Late in the afternoon,  wet weather will develop in southern Alberta, with showers and thunderstorms.  Some storms may become strong with heavy rain, wind, and hail.  By the end of the day, most of Alberta will have had wet weather, except for those areas near the Saskatchewan boundary, north of Empress, toward the NWT.  It will be hot in northeastern Alberta, from the Lakeland to Wood Buffalo, with highs in the 30s.   Elsewhere, expect highs in the mid to high 20s.

Saskatchewan

A low approaching from Alberta begins to stir things up in southwestern Saskatchewan, destabilizing the atmosphere. Scattered showers and storms are likely to develop in southwestern Saskatchewan by midday, continuing all the way into the evening. Temperatures stay warm to hot province-wide.  Highs in north central Saskatchewan will reach the low 30s, with peaks in the high 20s elsewhere.

Manitoba

Hot weather will reach parts of central Manitoba Saturday, where highs will climb to the 30.   In the agricultural south, it will be almost as warm, with temperatures peaking in the 25 to 30 degree range.  Moisture remains scarce, though the ridge weakens slightly, allowing a few isolated storms to develop in the west during the evening.

 

Sunday

Alberta

Southern Alberta gets hit with heavy rain and storms on Sunday as a low pressure system shifts from southern into central and northern Alberta during the day.  While the heaviest rain may end up in the south, central regions can also expect widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some storms may be severe with strong wind gusts, hail, and torrential rain.  Expect localized flooding,   Dugouts and ditches will fill with water, especially east of  Calgary.   The wet weather will cool things down.  Depending on the exact location of the rain, highs in southern and central regions will range from 10 to 20 degrees.   In the north, where the weather remains dry, most areas will reach 25 to 30 degrees with even hotter weather in Wood Buffalo.

Saskatchewan

A strong low pressure system in Alberta will spread rain into southern and central Saskatchewan.   Storms can’t be ruled out, and there is the potential for severe weather late in the day.  Most of the areas affected are south of the Trans Canada Highway.   Conditions in northern Saskatchewan won’t change, with more hot, dry weather expected.  Highs in the north could again hit 30 degrees, while in the south, it will be cooler due to the rain.  Highs there will reach the mid 20s.

Manitoba

A system producing rain in North Dakota will push some of that moisture into southern Manitoba on Sunday.  The atmosphere will become increasingly unstable, and showers and thundershowers are expected late in the day.   The showers will extend north into the interlake, but beyond that, it will remain dry.   Across the province, expect highs in the mid 20s.

 

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