Beneficial Rain and Snow!!!
It’s so much fun(?) forecasting weather at this time of year. Spring on the prairies – one day feels like winter, the next like summer. And, that’s what this week is all about. That means the warm midweek weather will change, and in some areas, dramatically on the weekend. For southern Alberta, snow will return. For southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, there will be rain. There is a lot of uncertainty about this, as the intensity and location of the precipitation haven’t yet been nailed down. However, it’s safe to say parts of the parched prairie will get some beneficial moisture this weekend. The precipitation begins in southern Alberta on Saturday, with snow in the foothills. During the day, the system will move east parallel to the US border, bringing snow to places like Lethbridge and Medicine Hat. As temperatures rise, the snow will turn to a mix of rain and snow for much of southern Alberta. The moisture remains in southern Alberta Sunday, and stretches east to western Manitoba. The map below shows the type of precipitation that can be expected on Sunday, April 13:
As for amounts…again, there is a lot of uncertainty, but the map below shows the Canadian Regional model forecast for precipitation totals on Sunday:
If this map is correct, the potential is there for up to 30 mm of rain in southern Saskatchewan. In pockets of southern Alberta, there is the potential for more than 20 mm of moisture, in the form of snow, rain, or a mix of both.
Until the weekend, the weather across the prairies remains rather quiet.
Thursday
Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba
All three prairie provinces will bask in sunshine or at least filtered sunshine, due to the dominance of high pressure across western and northern Canada. With the high pressure, the clear sky, and the sunshine, temperatures across Alberta and Saskatchewan will reach the double digits, with high teens expected south of highway 16. In Manitoba, it will also be warm with most areas reaching highs between 5 and 15 degrees.
Friday
Alberta
The upper ridge of high pressure that has kept the province mostly dry all week will flatten out, but at the surface, a westerly wind will keep most of the province dry and sunny for another day. East of highway 22, temperatures will again climb to the high teens, perhaps even the low 20s in some areas, especially in southeastern Alberta. In the Peace Region of northwestern Alberta, a weak Low pressure system will form, and generate 10-15 mm of rain in the area. The low will cross northern Alberta, reaching Saskatchewan by midnight. Rain will fall across the northern 1/4 of Alberta, well away from any agricultural properties. Wind will be another concern in the Peace Region, where gusts could reach 60 to 80 km/h. As a trough of low pressure sweeps through the south, wind gusts in SW Alberta may also reach the 80 km/h threshold.
Saskatchewan
Friday’s another dry day in Saskatchewan, with most of the province under a mainly sunny sky. In the north, an approaching Low from Alberta will spread rain across the region beginning in the afternoon. There may be a few sprinkles as far south as Wynyard, but it won’t be meaningful precipitation. The bigger story is the warmth in southern Saskatchewan, where highs near or above 20 are quite likely in the area between Moose Jaw and Montana. The rest of the province will see highs climb above the melting point, mainly in the low to mid teens.
Manitoba
Double digit highs are likely in the interlake and southern Manitoba Friday afternoon, with highs between 10 and 15 degrees. It will be mainly sunny, though bands of broken cloud are likely to move across the province from west to east during the day. There is no chance of any significant precipitation.
Saturday
Alberta
Saturday will be another warm, quiet day across the prairies, with highs in most areas from 10 to 20 degrees. If you have outdoor work or chores to do, or whether you want to break for a bike ride, a game of tennis, or even golf (if your course is open), then do it Saturday, because the weather becomes active again on Sunday, particularly in Alberta. A Low pressure system will form in the early morning in south central Alberta, and in the late afternoon and evening, snow will fall over the higher terrain of the foothills and mountains. That system moves east through the day, and intensifies. With the developing weather changes, Saturday will be cooler than Friday, with below average highs in the single digits west of highway 2, and in the low to mid teens to the east.
Saskatchewan
The forests of northern Saskatchewan will get some rain and snow, but in the south, it remains mainly sunny and dry with a westerly wind. Late in the day, precipitation from the Low in Alberta will begin to sneak into southern Saskatchewan. Given the time of day, it could be rain, but may also fall as a mix of rain and snow. Prior to the arrival of the wet weather, highs south of the Trans Canada Highway could reach 15 to 20 degrees. Highs in the mid teens are expected north of the Trans Canada Highway to Prince Albert. Further north, with rain and snow in the forest, temperatures will peak within 5 degrees either side of zero.
Manitoba
It’ll be a warm day in Manitoba, ahead of cooler and wetter weather on Sunday. Temperatures will reach double digits in the southern half of the province, wiith the possibility of temperatures reaching the high teens south of the Lakes.
Sunday
This is a no fun forecast day. The description and maps above lay out the scenario for Sunday. And, if it plays out as indicated, there could be some hazardous travel conditions for southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba. As mentioned above, there is a lot of uncertainty, and most of the moisture could very well end up south of the border. It’s just not possible at this time (Thursday) to determine which way things will go on Sunday. It’s safe to say there will be some precipitation across the southern Prairies on the weekend, and there is the potential for significant precipitation, but no guarantee.
COMPARE: Prairie Weather This Week – Mar 31
