Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Winter has been shown the door, but it’s leaving slowly. Weekend snow in central and northern regions, rain in the south.
Significant snow fell earlier this week, as a series of Alberta clippers travelled through northern Alberta and into central Saskatchewan. Manitoba also received snow, but in much smaller amounts, as the clippers weakened as they moved east.
Here are some totals from earlier this week, as reported by Environment Canada:
And, many of those same areas could get more snow on the weekend, especially Sunday. The map below shows total precipitation expected to accumulate through Sunday afternoon. The shaded areas in the northern prairies will experience snow, while most of the precipitation along the US border will be in the form of rain:
Thursday
Peace Region
High pressure building southward behind a departing Alberta clipper brings a relatively quiet day across the Peace Country. The sky will be partly cloudy, and temperatures will remain cold, with daytime highs in the 5 to 8 degree range. A shortwave over the Northwest Territories, just east of the Yukon boundary, will bear watching as it drifts southward, but no significant weather is expected to reach the Peace Region on Thursday. Overnight lows will drop back below freezing.
Alberta
A lingering, but weak trough of low pressure associated with the snowy clipper system earlier in the week continues to shift eastward across central and northern Alberta, allowing the sky to gradually clear through the day. Daytime highs will sit in the 5 to 8 degree range across most of the province, with double-digit highs possible along and south of the Trans Canada Highway east of Calgary. No significant precipitation is expected province-wide. Overnight lows will dip to around -5 in central areas.
Saskatchewan
A cold front slumping southeastward will push a band of light snow into northern Saskatchewan through Thursday. Most of the snow will again fall in the boreal forest, though a few flakes have been falling with flurries near Outlook, Watrous, Goll Lake, and Assiniboia. For the rest of the day, central and southern agricultural regions will remain largely quiet under the influence of high pressure. Daytime highs will range from -2 to 7 from north to south, with overnight lows near -8. The freeze-thaw cycle continues across areas carrying snowpack from the clipper earlier in the week.
Manitoba
Thursday brings the most active weather of the day to Manitoba. The cold front dropping out of the Arctic carries a band of light snow that moves southeastward through central Manitoba by Thursday evening. Accumulations will be modest, with just a few centimetres in central regions, but producers in the Dauphin and Interlake areas should be aware of the potential for reduced visibility and slippery roads during the evening. It will be cold, with highs of 2 to 5 degrees in the south and colder readings farther north. Overnight lows will fall back near -8.
Friday
Peace Region
A quieter and slightly milder day for the Peace Region as high pressure holds firm and warm air begins its gradual northward push ahead of a developing low in central BC. Expect mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and highs climbing to near 6. The welcome warmth will begin softening snow-covered ground, though the region’s persistent moisture deficit means even this modest warmth is more appreciated than troublesome.
Alberta
Friday marks the beginning of a notable warming trend across Alberta. As a large area of low pressure develops over the northwestern United States, warm air begins advancing northward on its eastern flank. Daytime highs are expected to reach around 10°C across much of the province, with southern regions getting into the high teens, with highs ranging from 16 to 18 degrees. This will be a welcome window for producers looking to tend to calving operations or early spring field work. The sky will be partly cloudy. Overnight lows will remain near or just below freezing in the south.
Saskatchewan
The warming trend begins in earnest across Saskatchewan on Friday. Milder air advancing ahead of the U.S. low pushes daytime highs into the double digits across southern agricultural regions, with temperatures approaching 13 to 14 degrees near Regina and Moose Jaw. In fact, most areas south of the Yellowhead highway can expect double-digit highs. The sky will be partly cloudy with some afternoon breaks of sunshine. Snowmelt will accelerate noticeably, and producers in east-central Saskatchewan should begin monitoring soil and field conditions as the pace of runoff picks up heading into the weekend.
Manitoba
After a cold and unsettled start to the week, Friday offers a bit of a break for Manitoba. High pressure briefly consolidates behind the departing Arctic front, bringing sunnier weather and a gradual warmup. Daytime highs will reach 5 to 6 degrees across southern agricultural regions, which is a significant improvement over the cold of mid-week. Sunshine will accelerate snowmelt in areas that saw accumulations from the front. Overnight lows will remain near -5, keeping the freeze-thaw cycle intact.
Saturday
Peace Region
Cloud cover begins to increase across the Peace Region through Saturday as a low in Montana tracks northeast and its moisture shield expands northward. A trough of low pressure will develop right over the Peace region, creating light rain or wet snow by late in the day, particularly in the northern Peace. High temperatures will be below average, near zero. The Peace Country’s elevation and lingering cold air aloft could tip some of this toward straight snow overnight.
Alberta
Saturday brings more warm weather for Alberta. Southern regions, including the Calgary area, could reach 15 to 17 degrees under a partly cloudy to mostly cloudy sky. The Lethbridge and Brooks areas will be even warmer, with highs from 15 to 17. The warmth will be short-lived, however, as cloud cover thickens through the afternoon ahead of an approaching low. The low itself will remain in Montana, but scattered showers will spread by Saturday evening, particularly across southern and central Alberta. Producers should make the most of the warm, dry morning hours.
Saskatchewan
The warm sector ahead of the Montana low delivers the highest temperatures of the week to southern Saskatchewan on Saturday. Daytime highs could climb to near 16 to 21 degrees across southern agricultural regions. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy. Showers are possible through the afternoon and evening in north central Saskatchewan, turning to snow later in the day. Snowmelt in the south will be rapid under these conditions, and producers carrying significant snowpack should monitor field and roadway conditions closely. In northern Saskatchewan, it remains cooler with a mix of cloud and sun, where high temperatures will come in near zero.
Manitoba
The warm air finally arrives in force across southern Manitoba on Saturday. Daytime highs of 10 to 11 are possible across the Red River Valley and surrounding agricultural regions, representing the warmest readings in several weeks. Increasing cloud cover through the afternoon signals an approaching storm system. Showers are possible by Saturday evening near the US border and in southeastern Manitoba as the moisture plume ahead of the U.S. low pushes northward. The combination of warm temperatures and rain will accelerate snowmelt in areas still carrying significant cover from earlier in the week.
Sunday
Peace Region
Sunday brings unsettled conditions to the Peace Region as the low-pressure system pushes northeast and moisture continues to stream northward. Rain or a rain-snow mix is likely through much of the day. The Peace Country’s proximity to cooler air masses aloft means snow is the more probable precipitation type at higher elevations and in the north Peace. Daytime highs will pull back slightly, near 1 to 4 degrees. Producers should be prepared for soft, muddy conditions as the combination of melt and rain or fresh snow saturates fields.
Alberta
Cloud and showers or flurries continue across Alberta on Sunday, though precipitation will be scattered and variable in nature. Southern and central regions will see a mix of rain and wet snow as cooler air begins to filter in behind the departing system. There is a possibility that precipitation could change back to snow overnight Sunday into Monday before exiting the province. Daytime highs will retreat from Saturday’s peak, sitting near 6 to 8°C in the south. Overnight lows will fall back near -5 to -8°C as Arctic high pressure begins building from the northwest.
Saskatchewan
Sunday sees increasing cloud and scattered showers continuing across southern and central Saskatchewan as the U.S. low tracks northeast toward Lake Superior. Rain is the dominant precipitation type in the south, though the northern half of the province can continue to expect snow. Daytime highs of 8 to 11 degrees are still likely in the south. A cooler trend begins developing late Sunday as the low departs and Arctic high pressure starts sliding southward behind it. Expect a transition back toward flurries across northern and central regions by Sunday evening.
Manitoba
Sunday is the day to watch most closely across Manitoba. The U.S. low, tracking northeast toward Lake Superior, will pass to the south of the province. Showers or periods of rain are expected across southern Manitoba through the day, with daytime highs of 7 to 9 degrees in the south. As the low moves away and slightly cooler air wraps around the western side of the system, there is meaningful potential for precipitation to transition to snow across central Manitoba by Sunday evening and overnight. There is some potential for more significant accumulations in the Interlake and Dauphin regions. This system will need to be watched closely. Southern producers will see mainly rain before conditions improve on Monday.
