Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Toward the end of the week and the weekend, dry weather remains over most of central and southern Alberta, but there is a chance of precipitation for northern Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. This map shows expected snowfall accumulation by Sunday evening.
Thursday
Alberta
The warm, dry weather continues on Boxing Day in Alberta. Expect to see considerable cloud cover, but the wind will remain from the west, particularly along the foothills, so the drying downslope effect will remain. And the warming effect sticks around, as well, with highs in southern Alberta once again exceeding the melting point everywhere south of the Trans Canada highway, with highs close to 10 possible in the Lethbridge area. The warm air will extend northwest along the foothills. East of there, in central and northern Alberta, expect highs between 0 and -5.
Saskatchewan
It’ll be a dry day across most of Saskatchewan Boxing Day. There is a chance of rain or snow developing in the Cypress Hills. Moist air being fed in from a system in the US Pacific northwest, will be forced to rise by the elevation of the hills, and that could lead to some very isolated precipitation, and in some areas, it will be warm enough for rain. Again, that is confined to the southwestern corner of the province in the late afternoon. However, in the evening, the moisture becomes a big more widespread, so light snow can be expected west of Moose Jaw toward the Alberta boundary and south to the US border. Other than the above freezing temperatures in the southwest, most of Saskatchewan will see highs near or just below zero.
Manitoba
There will be a big contrast in temperature across Manitoba’s agricultural south on Boxing Day. Temperatures near the Saskatchewan boundary may not get above -10. Along the Ontario boundary, it may warm as high as +5, due to mild air coming in from the south along the eastern side of the province. In the north, highs between 0 and -10 can be expected. East of the Red River Valley, and as far north as Island Lake, precipitation is likely. And as surface temperatures in these areas could exceed zero, snow or a mix of rain and snow will likely be the dominant forms of precipitation due to sub-freezing air aloft.
Friday
Alberta
The dry spell for Alberta continues Friday, and it will remain warm. Highs Friday will be very similar to those on Thursday, with a pocket of very warm air south of the Trans Canada highway, where high single digit temperatures are likely. Temperatures will exceed the melting point along the foothills toward Grande Prairie, and along the highway 2 corridor toward Edmonton and Athabasca. Elsewhere, highs in Alberta will range between 0 and -10.
Saskatchewan
The mild weather continues, especially south of the Trans Canada highway, where highs could peak between 0 and 5. Elsewhere, it will be cooler, but given the time of year, not cold. Highs ranging from -5 to -10 will be widespread across Saskatchewan. Snow, while not widespread, can be expected in parts of central and southeastern Saskatchewan through the day. In most areas, accumulations should be light. However, a Low will move toward Saskatoon in the afternoon, and from Saskatoon to Prince Albert, 5 to 10 cm of snow can’t be ruled out.
Manitoba
Manitoba can expect snow and rain on Friday. Warm air continues to circulate around a system to the east, which will boost temperatures above the melting point in southeastern Manitoba. West of Winnipeg, snow is expected. Accumulations should be light, but there may be disruptions to travel. Highs of 0 to 5 can be expected in southern Manitoba and the Interlake, and further north, it’s also mild with highs just below the freezing point.
Saturday
Alberta
A low that moved into central Saskatchewan Friday will spin around northern Saskatchewan Saturday, and spread snow back into northern Alberta. It’s unlikely that the snow will come any farther south than Slave Lake. In central and southern regions, a dry westerly flow will continue, and those regions will remain free of precipitation. The dry spell continues. Highs across the province will be near zero, though it will again be warm in the south, where temperatures will rise above the melting point south of Calgary, and achieve the high single digits in southern Alberta south of highway 3.
Saskatchewan
The Low that moved into the Saskatoon area Friday will meander northward, and snow is expected in the northern half of Saskatchewan all day. Accumulations will vary, but in most areas, about 5 cm of fresh snow are expected. In the south, it stays dry, and it will cool down somewhat. Except for areas adjacent to the Montana border where highs will climb above zero, highs across Saskatchewan will range between 0 and -10. The colder weather will happen in the coulees and other low lying areas, such as the Qu’Appelle Valley.
Manitoba
The temperature pattern in place all week continues. East of Lake Winnipeg, expect highs rising to 0 to +5, and mild weather elsewhere, with afternoon temperatures near or just below zero. The rain east of the lakes will finally end, as it moves north and east toward Hudson Bay. A low in northern Saskatchewan will provide snow to the northwestern quarter of Manitoba, and in the far north, that area of snow will stretch east toward Churchill and Hudson Bay.
Sunday
Alberta
Scattered snow or flurries are expected in northern Alberta, generated by a weakening low in northern Saskatchewan. The rest of the province will have another dry day, except for the far southwestern corner. Waterton, Crowsnest, Pincher Creek, Chief Mountain may all get some snow in afternoon, and that will spread eastward along the Montana border during the evening. The snow is coming from a Pacific system crossing the northwestern US. While the heavier snow will fall in Montana, up to 10 cm can’t be ruled out in the above mentioned locations in southwestern Alberta. The day will also be marked by a return of colder weather, particularly in southern Alberta, east of Highway 2. Afternoon highs there could remain below -10, with temperatures climbing closer to the melting point elsewhere in Alberta.
Saskatchewan
The low in northern Saskatchewan weakens, and fizzles out during the day. This will leave a few periods of flurries or light snow in the far northern part of the province. Elsewhere, it will be dry, with clouds, and a light wind. In the late evening, a system spreading snow across the Montana hi-line may lead to a few flurries in the far southwestern region of Saskatchewan, but snow will remain light. It will be a considerably colder day, with highs of only -10 or cooler along the Trans Canada highway. It will be warmer to the south, with highs near zero, and to the north, with highs from -5 to -10.
Manitoba
Dry weather returns to most of the province, with periods of light snow confined to the permafrost north of the lakes. In the south, expect mainly sunny conditions in the afternoon. It’s one of those strange days when southern Manitoba will be cooler than the north. Highs oof -5 to -10 are forecast for southern Manitoba and the Interlake. North of there, it’s warmer, wtih highs near zero.
Getting Colder in the New Year
Nothing is guaranteed, but it looks like 2025 may start with an Arctic outbreak for western Canada. On this first map, we note strong Arctic highs developing in the north, loading up with very cold air, which may be sent southward.
Note the strong High in northern Nevada. This, combined with the arctic highs in the north, will provide a path for cold air to travel southward. This next map shows temperatures early in the morning on December 31. The cold air extends all the way south to northern Arizona and New Mexico.
We’ll monitor this, and update with better, more up-to-date information on Monday morning’s post.
