Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) –  Storms continue across the prairies, with hot conditions in the south

The  Canadian Drought Monitor has been updated, showing a remarkable increase in drought conditions across most of the prairies.  Parts of Alberta saw conditions improve in June, due to significant rainfall, while conditions deteriorated signifcantly in southeastern Alberta, most of Saskatchewan,  and all of Manitoba.   Fortunately, rain is expected in many of these areas in the coming days, but for an increasing number of farmers, it may be too late.

Thursday

Stormy weather continues across the prairies Thursday, with a focus on southeastern Manitoba, where severe storms are likely.  The map below shows a widespread threat of thunderstorms across the agricultural prairies Thursday, but in the vast majority of areas, that threat is minor.    Note that the map shows where storms could erupt, not necessarily where they will erupt.

Alberta

It will be a wet day south of Red Deer, with rain, showers, and thundershowers through the day.   The area of rain will span the south from SE BC to the Saskatchewan boundary, and well beyond.  Rainfall could be heavy, especially where tbundershowers break out.  The likelihood of severe storms is not as great as Wednesday, but they can’t be ruled out, either.   The map below shows expected rainfall amounts on Thursday:

Because of the wet weather, and the passage of a cold front, it will be cooler in Alberta on Thursday, especially in the south.  Across Alberta, expect highs between 15 and 20 degrees, depending on the timing of the rainfall.  It will be warmer in southeastern Alberta, with highs in the mid 20s.

Saskatchewan

As the map above shows, southern Saskatchewan should  get some measurable rain.    In the rain, temperatures are likely to remain below 15 degrees.   Southwestern Saskatchewan will get measurable rain,  but nowhere near enough to make a dent in the drought.  The rain in southwestern Saskatchewan will peak in the late afternoon, and taper off as it moves east across southern Saskatchewan.  Overnight into Friday morning, it should taper off entirely. There is a severe thunderstorm threat Thursday, especially across southern Saskatchewan along the Trans Canada Highway.

Manitoba

Conditions are setting up for showers, thunderstorms, and severe weather Thursday in southern and eastern Manitoba.

Through the afternoon, heat and humidity will build across the region, creating an unstable atmosphere. Two weather systems capable of triggering severe storms  will move through.  First, there will be a warm trough east of Lake Winnipeg and into the Red River Valley this afternoon, and then a stronger cold front pushing through in this evening.

For most of the afternoon, a “cap” of warm air higher up in the atmosphere should keep thunderstorms from developing. However, there’s still a small chance of isolated storms popping up. If one does form, it could quickly turn severe with the potential for torrential downpours and large hail.

In the evening and overnight, the risk of storms increases. The advancing cold front, combined with upper-level winds from the Dakotas, could trigger a line of scattered thunderstorms overnight and into Friday morning. Some of these storms could be strong or severe initially, but as they spread out and become more widespread, the risk of damaging weather should ease.

Friday

Alberta

Quiet weather returns to Alberta on Friday, with sunshine in the south, and clouds to the north.   Significant precipitation is not expected.   It will be warmer again, with highs in the mid 20s across most of the province.  Highs between 25 and 30 can be expected in southeastern Alberta.

Saskatchewan

Severe weather is not expected, but there is a good chance of rain moving southeast from Saskatoon to the Moosomin Balgonie area in the afternoon.   Significant accumulations are unlikely.  The rain will limit temperatures in that area to the 15 to 20 degree range, while in the rest of the province, temperatures could climb to the mid to high 20s.

Manitoba

A low pressure system over south central Manitoba will generate a day’s worth of rain across the southern part of the province.   Thunderstorms and severe weather are again possible.   The heaviest rain will likely occur in western Manitoba near Carberry. The map below shows precipitation accumulation between midnight Friday morning, and midnight Saturday morning:

Because of the wet weather, highs across southern Manitoba will reach the low 20s at best.

Saturday

Alberta

While rain will fall in the forests of northeastern Alberta, agricultural regions across the province will remain dry, and no significant weather is expected.  A Low pressure system in the Pacific off the BC coast will push a west to northwest wind across the province.  In the northern 2/3rds of the province, highs will reach the mid 20s.   In southern Alberta, it will warm to the 25 to 30 degree range, exceeding 30 degrees south of highway 3 between Lethbridge and Medicine Hat.

Saskatchewan

Similar to Alberta, there will be rain in Saskatchewan Saturday, but most of it will be in the forested northern regions.   In the afternoon, though, some of that rain may venture as far south as the Saskatoon area, providing rain to central Saskatchewan fields and pastures.   However, amounts will be disappointingly minimal.  In southern agricultural regions, highs will range between 25 and 30 degrees.   Highs in the low to mid twenties can be expected in the rest of the province.

Manitoba

Early in the morning, expect rain from Portage La Prairie east into Ontario.  By afternoon, the rain tapers off west of Winnipeg, but continues through the day east of the Red River Valley.  Afternoon thunderstorms will be possible in the area.  Because of the rain, temperatures in southern Manitoba will be limted to the low 20s.   HIghs in the mid twenties are forecast for central and northern Manitoba.

Sunday

Alberta

Rain returns to Alberta on Sunday,  developing in the morning in central and northern regions.   In the afternoon, the rain will move southward, and spread across parts of southern Alberta, where it will intensify into the evening and overnight.  By midnight, rain will be falling all across central and south central Alberta, and along the foothills north, almost all the way to Grande Prairie.  The Bonnyville/Cold Lake area will receive heavier rainfall in the afternoon and evening.  Some of the forecast models are suggesting hot weather with highs in the 30s for southern Alberta.   These temperatures will be acheived in the early to mid afternoon before the rain arrives and intensifies.

Saskatchewan

A Low pressure system will provide rain early in the day to the northern forests, before moving southward in the afternoon.   That southward turn will bring rain to central and southern Saskatchewan in the afternoon, and into southern Saskatchewan by evening.  Thunderstorms can’t be ruled out.

Manitoba

While rain falls in central Manitoba, the agricultural south will stay dry all day, with plenty of sunshine.   Warm weather returns to the area as temperatures in the south climb to the 25 to 30 degree range.  In the north, highs will peak between 20 and 25 degrees.

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