Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – More sun than rain across the prairies this week.

June has flown by fast!  We go into July with a return to dry weather across most of the prairies.   The map below shows very little rainfall is expected this week across agricultural regions.  The boreal forest in the north can expect healthy rain totals.    There are some exceptions.  The southern Alberta foothills and the Calgary area could be in for some significant rain through the week, as well as much of southeastern Manitoba.

 

 

In Alberta, the area south of highway 3 can expect to receive little rain this week, with very little rainfall between Edmonton and Saskatchewan.   Most of central and  southern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba will be dry.

Fortunately, rain over the past week has been substantial across parts of the prairies, helping to maintain or even improve soil moisture levels:

 

 

 

 

While generally dry weather is expected across the prairies through the week,  you’ll still have to watch the sky.   At this time of year, pop-up thunderstorms and isolated showers are always possible, and in the southeastern prairies, high humidity will be an issue for those working outdoors later in the week.

 

Here’s what to watch for:

 

Monday

Alberta

Monday will be a sunny, warm day across the province, with the potential for temperatures to reach 30 degrees south of highway 3.   Elsewhere in Alberta, temperatures will climb to the mid to high twenties.  An easterly wind may develop in southwestern Alberta, and that, combined with the heat, could trigger some thunderstorms over the foothills in the late afternoon.   In southern Alberta, the storms are unlikely to drift very far east of the foothills,  but in central Albert, evening showers and thundershowers will be possible from Jasper north to Grande Prairie, and from Jasper east to Edmonton.

Saskatchewan

A westerly wind and a sunny sky will dominate the day in Saskatchewan, with rain expected in the far north, well away from agricultural operations.   The sunshine and drying wind could have a negative effect on soil moisture, a trend likely to continue through the week.   Highs across the province will range from 24 to 28 degrees, except in the rainy northern forests, where high temperatures will reach the high teens.

Manitoba

Morning rain across southern Manitoba and the interlake will taper off to showers in the afternoon, with the rain coming to an end in the late afternoon or evening. Heavier rain will fall north of the lakes through the day.   Highs across the province should reach the low to mid twenties.

 

This map shows how much rain can be expected in Manitoba, and the rest of the prairies on Monday:

 

 

Tuesday

Alberta

A Pacific weather system will reach the British Columbia coast, somewhat destabilizing the atmosphere in southwestern Alberta, leading to a chance of afternoon thunderstorms in the foothills west of Calgary, some of which may be severe.  In central Alberta, expect showers and a chance of thundershowers throughout the day.  The showers will remain brief and isolated through the afternoon, becoming more widespread toward evening.

In the evening, there will be showers or periods of rain from Highway 16 north into the Northwest Territories.    In southeastern Alberta, where it will be sunny and dry through the day, highs will soar into the low 30s.  And it will be quite warm elsewhere in the province, with highs in the mid to high 20s.

Saskatchewan

High pressure dominates Saskatchewan Tuesday, providing plenty of sunshine, and light and variable wind.  No significant rainfall is expected in Saskatchewan Tuesday, and temperatures south of the Trans Canada Highway will reach the low 30s.   In central Saskatchewan, temperatures will reach the high 20s, and in the north, it will warm to the low 20s.  Surface soil moisture values are expected to be hit hard by Tuesday’s weather.

The shading on this chart shows 0=40 cm soil  moisture values expected Tuesday.   Brown areas show low soil moisture, with the darkest brown indicating the driest soil:

Manitoba

As the map above shows, soil moisture levels in southern Manitoba on Tuesday will be well below average, and rain would be welcome.   On Tuesday, rain will be absent.  There will be a northwest wind, and that will keep Manitoba comfortably warm, without the 30 degree heat expected in Saskatchewan and Alberta.   Highs will reach the mid to high 20s.

Wednesday

Alberta

A low pressure system will hang out over central Alberta during the day.  North of the low, expect periods of rain in central and northern Alberta.  To the south, as the atmosphere becomes less stable, showers and storms are likely to form in the afternoon near Calgary, and head north into central Alberta for the afternoon and evening.   Some of the thunderstorms may become severe, with hail.   High humidity in southeastern Alberta, and that will lead to muggy conditions with high humidex values.

This combination of heat and humidity may fuel some isolated afternoon storms in the area.    It will be hot, with temperatures reaching the low to mid 30s southeast of Calgary.  Expect highs of 31 in Calgary, 32 in Lethbridge, 34 in Milk River, and 35 in Medicine Hat.

Saskatchewan

Southwestern Saskatchewan will be hot, with high humidity.    Expect highs near 32 in Regina and Moose Jaw,  33 in Swift Current and Maple Creek,  34 in Val Marie.   There will be a widespread risk of thunderstorms, including severe storms across most of western Saskatchewan.   The storms should initiate in the late afternoon or early evening, and continue through the night west of Regina.   Showers and storms are also possible through the day in central and northern Saskatchewan, where temperatures will reach the mid to high 20s.

Manitoba

The ridge of high pressure that provided a sunny, warm day to Saskatchewan on Tuesday, will move into Manitoba Wednesday, with much the same effect.   There will be no significant precipitation in Manitoba on Wednesday.   Highs in the south will reach the mid twenties.  In the north, only slightly cooler, with highs in the low 20s.

 

Thursday

Alberta

Dry weather will dominate another day in southern Alberta.   A Low pressure system in Saskatchewan, just northeast of Lloydminster, along with its associated fronts and troughs, will provide rain to central and northern Alberta in the morning, with strong storms possible in Wood Buffalo, north of  Fort McMurray.  A cold front continues to linger in a northeast to southwest line through central Alberta.  In the Calgary area and extending eastward, there is a conditional risk of severe thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. Moisture pooling and localized convergence, particularly along the terrain west of Calgary, may be enough to trigger storms.   If thunderstorms do form, there is a chance of  one or two supercells capable of producing large hail and strong wind. You can see the effect the cold front will have on temperatures in the map below:

 

North and west of the cold front, afternoon temperatures will only reach the mid teens.   South and east of the front, it will be another 30+ degree day from Milk River to Medicine Hat.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

Across southern and central Saskatchewan and into southwestern Manitoba, there is a growing risk of severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Temperatures across southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba will reach the low 30s.  Humidity will be high, creating very unstable conditions. If storms can break through a capping layer in the atmosphere, they could quickly become severe. The main threats include large hail, damaging winds, and a slight chance of tornadoes, especially in extreme southeast Saskatchewan and southwest Manitoba.

Over northern Saskatchewan, the atmosphere is less capped, allowing thunderstorms to develop more easily. These storms could bring large hail and, while unlikely, a tornado cannot be ruled out.

As we move into the evening and overnight, thunderstorms may persist in the Red River Valley and southeastern Manitoba. A developing low-level jet will help sustain storms through the night. Damaging winds and large hail would be the main threats in this area.  There will be little relief from the heat overnight. with lows near 20.

Friday

Alberta

Showers and rain along a cold front through north central Alberta will continue through the morning, slowly tapering off as the front weakens through the day.  South of the front, it will be mainly sunny and dry,  with highs from Edmonton south in the high teens and low 20s.   It will be considerably cooler in most of Alberta, compared with earlier in the week.    Lethbridge, Milk River, and Medicine Hat will be exceptions, as highs have a chance at reaching 25 to 27 degrees.    South of highway 3, it will remain sunny until clouds move in later in the day.

Saskatchewan

Overnight thunderstorms will likely merge into a broad area of showers and embedded thunderstorms across far northern Saskatchewan by Friday morning. Rainfall totals of 15 to 30 mm are expected, with locally higher amounts possible in areas that experience stronger thunderstorms. Agricultural regions of Saskatchewan will have another dry, uneventful day.   It will be slightly cooler compared to previous days this week, with highs in the mid twenties.

Manitoba

Southern Manitoba will have another hot day, with high humidity, and muggy conditions.   Temperatures south of the lakes will reach the low 30s, and in the rest of Manitoba won’t be far behind with highs between 25 and 30 degrees.   High heat and humidity often provide fuel for thunderstorms, and while storms are possible Friday,  it doesn’t look like there will be anything to trigger them.   If conditions change, and storms to get triggered, they could become quite explosive.

 

Saturday

Alberta

Showers and thunderstorms return to southern Alberta, first thing in the morning.  A Low pressure system near Chief Mountain will create the wet weather south of Highway 3 in the early morning, and it will continue through the midday.  The system is very slow moving, and there may be significant rainfall accumulation in the area.   The rain won’t move much farther north than Claresholm, so central and northern Alberta will stay dry.  That could change a bit in the afternoon, with some convective showers or thunderstorms popping up over the foothills.   In the evening, a Low will form near Sundre, producing rain and thunderstorms in central Alberta, north of Red Deer.  With all the rain in the south, it will be a cool day, with highs between 10 and 15.  In central and northern regions of Alberta, expect highs in the low 20s.

Saskatchewan

A high pressure system centered over central Saskatchewan will keep the province dry on Saturday.   Expect mainly cloudy conditions in the south, and sunshine in the north.   Temperatures will be near, or slightly below average, reaching only the low 20s across the province.

Manitoba

Cooler weather returns to Manitoba, where temperatures will be somewhat below average.  Highs will reach the low 20s across the province, except near the major lakes, where it may be a few degrees cooler.  It will be dry across Manitoba’s agricultural regions.

 

Sunday

Alberta

A low pressure system will track across north central Alberta Sunday, from the southwest to the northeast, and will produce rain as it moves across the area.  The rain will get stronger as the day goes on, and the afternoon could end with a downpour near Fort McMurray.   Rain will also extend south toward Lloydminster, Coronation, and Oyen.   Lightning storms can’t be ruled out.   The south will stay dry until the afternoon, when showers and storms could erupt along the Forestry Trunk Road, and south of the Trans Canada Highway.  Highs across Alberta will reach the high teens or low twenties.  In southeastern Alberta, beyond the reach of the rain, expect highs between 25 and 30.

Saskatchewan

Highs between 20 and 25 can be expected across Saskatchewan on Sunday.   This is partly due to cool breezes from the east, circulating around a high pressure system, which moved from Saskatchewan Saturday to Manitoba on Sunday.    The western half of the province will become cloudy in the afternoon, but no significant rainfall is expected Sunday.

Manitoba

Clouds in southern Manitoba Sunday morning will move off into Ontario by the afternoon, leaving a mainly sunny sky across the entire province.   It will be slightly cooler than average, with highs in the low 20s.

 

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