Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Stormy weather returns to the Prairies. For some, it’s a wet weekend.
Thursday and Friday are high risk days for storms, especially in central Alberta, southern Saskatchewan, and parts of Manitoba. Manitoba gets a second shot at severe weather on the weekend, when rain will also persist in parts of Alberta.
Thursday
Alberta
There is a severe thunderstorm risk Thursday in central Alberta, and Environment Canada has issued watches for the affected areas:
A developing storm system and strong winds high in the atmosphere are creating ideal conditions for organized thunderstorms, including the potential for hail, damaging winds, and possibly tornadoes. Within the zone outlined in the map above, the most active areas will be from Calgary north Edmonton, and east of Drayton Valley toward central Alberta. The storms will develop in the late afternoon and continue to the evening, and may include supercells, which are large, rotating thunderstorms. Tornadoes are always possible in a supercell environment. Be weather aware, and refer to Environment Canada through the period for weather warnings and radar updates
Northern Alberta may see heavy rain at times, but widespread flooding is not expected.
South of Calgary, expect highs between 25 and 30. Highs will reach the low 20s in most of northern Alberta.
Saskatchewan
Southern Saskatchewan will be mostly quiet today with a dry southerly wind, but western and central regions may see thunderstorms arriving in the evening from Alberta. Some of these could be strong to severe, especially near the Alberta boundary. Watch for isolated storm cells developing from Cold Lake to Saskatoon and Davidson. Heavier rain is expected ahead of a Low pressure system moving into northern Saskatchewan overnight from northern Alberta. This rain will be well away from any agricultural territory. Temperatures across the province will peak in the mid twenties Thursday.
Manitoba
There will be mostly calm conditions Thursday across southern Manitoba, though there is a slight chance of pop-up showers or non-severe thunderstorms in the afternoon between Emerson and Kenora, Ontario. Temperatures in southern and central Manitoba will peak in the low to mid twenties. It will be somewhat cooler in the north, with highs in the high teens and low 20s.
Friday
Alberta
It will be another active storm day in southern Alberta, especially near the foothills. A cold front pushing south will combine with warm, humid air and strong upper winds. This is a recipe for strong to severe storms, most likely to break out in the area between Calgary and Lethbridge. Hail, strong winds, and heavy rain are the main risks. Even though the rain could fall heavily at times, accumulations are not expected to be significant, perhaps only 5 to 10 mm, except in the foothills from Cochrane to Canmore, which could receive 10-20 mm. Because of the wet weather from Calgary west into the foothills, highs in that region will only reach the low teens. In southeastern Alberta, where the rain will arrive later, highs will be in the low 20s.
Saskatchewan
As a weakening cold front slides across southern Saskatchewan from the northwest to the southeast, southern and central regions could see some strong, but isolated thunderstorms. The storms could break out between the Alberta boundary and Regina or Yorkton, extending north to Prince Albert. Should severe storms develop, the main risks will be hail, gusty wind, and heavy rainfall. The chance of storms developing in this area are low, and if they do form, the storms will produce minimal accumulations. Most areas of southern Saskatchewan will get no precipitation at all, as these storms will be isolated. More organized rainfall is expected throughout the day north of Saskatoon. Temperatures in the north will peak in the high teens. In the south, it will be much warmer, with highs between 25 and 30…with that heat enhancing the storm risk.
Manitoba
Friday could be a stormy day across much of the province. A strong storm system moving in will bring widespread thunderstorm activity, especially in the afternoon and evening. There will be very humid conditions as a trough and cold front move in from the west. This is thunderstorm juice. So, strong to severe thunderstorms are likely, especially in the central and southern regions. These storms could bring hail, strong winds, heavy rain , and frequent lightning. The storms will intensify overnight and continue into Saturday morning. Not only will the atmosphere be humid, it will be hot. Sticky weather, with temperatures peaking close to 30.
Saturday
Alberta
Upslope circulation around a ridge of high pressure in northern BC will bring rain to western Alberta. Early in the morning, expect rain in the foothills, through Calgary, and in a west-to-east line along and north of the Trans Canada highway toward Saskatchewan. Rain will continue in Calgary and the foothills through the day, whilst tapering off east of Calgary. To the north, afternoon showers and thundershowers will develop in central Alberta, then northwestward toward the Peace region. And, by midnight, expect heavy rain between Edmonton and Jasper, with light rain returning to southeastern Alberta. It will be rather chilly, with highs in the teens, except for southeastern Alberta. The afternoon break in the rain there will allow temperatures to climb to the mid twenties.
Saskatchewan
It will be a drier day in Saskatchewan, and much of the province will see plenty of sunshine. Temperatures will peak in the mid twenties, close to the seasonal average, despite the area being affected by the cold front that caused the rainy weather Friday. Lingering showers or storms are possible in the eastern and southern parts of the province early in the day.
Manitoba
Once early morning thunderstorms clear out of Eastern Manitoba during the day, most of the region will become sunny. However the air mass will be warm and humid, and there will be a risk of afternoon thunderstorms south of Lake Manitoba in the late afternoon and early evening. That risk will expand Saturday night, and through the night, rain and thunderstorms can be expected across the southern part of the province from Saskatchewan to Ontario. Across Manitoba except for the far north, highs will reach the mid to high 20s.
Sunday
Alberta
Rain will continue in central and southern Alberta Wednesday, though it will be weaker and more intermittent. The BC High that created the upslope rain in the south expands, clearing out the sky in northern and central Alberta. The clockwise circulation will maintain the rain in the foothills throughout the day, while the rain tapers off elsewhere in the southern part of the province. Because of the northern source of air within the high pressure system, it will be cool, with highs in the teens across most of Alberta. In the southeast, it’s possible temperatures will reach the low 20s.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
The day begins with rain and possibly thunderstorms in western Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba. The wet weather will persist through the day in Manitoba, as rain tapers off in Saskatchewan. Afternoon thunderstorms are likely in the Red River Valley and east toward Ontario. Highs in Saskatchewan will hit the low 20s. In Manitoba, it won’t be as uncomfortably hot and humid as in the previous couple of days. Highs in southern Manitoba will come in near 20 degrees, which will make it more comfortable despite persistently high dew points.
COMPARE: Prairie Weather This Week – July 14
