Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Weekend cooldown after the hottest weather of the year
The heat is about to crank back up. A ridge building across Western Canada sends temperatures climbing through the weekend, with several communities on track for their hottest day of the year. Thursday brings a brief break as a cool front flushes some of the humidity out west to east, but that relief is short-lived. The heat peaks Saturday in Alberta and Saskatchewan, then shifts into southern Manitoba on Sunday just as a fast-moving low starts cutting the heat off in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Wildfire smoke from BC and the Pacific Northwest continues drifting into southern and central Alberta and into Saskatchewan at times through the period.
Thursday
Peace Region
A quieter day, with smoke from BC and Pacific Northwest wildfires keeping air quality intermittently poor in southern areas of the Peace. Otherwise dry and comfortable, with sunshine and highs in the low 20s.It’s a good window before the weekend heat builds in.
Alberta
Thunderstorms develop across central and northern Alberta this afternoon. A surface low forming near Calgary will create an upslope flow along the foothills, and marginally severe storms are possible there, generally staying close to the higher terrain until evening before tracking east overnight. These storms may reach the Edmonton area by Friday morning. Southern Alberta holds a hot temperature threat, though today is described as “somewhat cooler” ahead of a bigger heat surge arriving this weekend. Temperatures across Alberta north of the Trans Canada Highway will peak in the mid-20s. Temperatures will reach the low 30s south of Highway 1. Smoke will continue to affect air quality in the south and central regions.
Saskatchewan
An area of concern develops in southwestern Saskatchewan this afternoon as an approaching disturbance brings enough instability for a severe storm or two, with large hail and damaging wind the primary hazards. Southern Saskatchewan holds a hot temperature threat, and smoke may become enough of an issue in the southwest to prompt a fresh air quality warning by Friday. Temperatures across southern Saskatchewan will reach the high 20s. The far southwestern corner of the province, including Maple Creek, will likely reach the low 30s. That’s the same area where the marginally severe storms are possible.
Manitoba
A weak front flushes humidity west to east across southern Manitoba through the day, and while temperatures stay warm in the upper 20s, the drop in humidity should be a noticeable relief. A few thunderstorms may cross the US border into southeastern Manitoba before moving into Ontario, and a funnel cloud or two can’t be ruled out over northern Manitoba. Southern Manitoba carries a humidex threat today, and heat warning criteria may return by the weekend as humidity builds back in, peaking Sunday.
Friday
Peace Region
With a mix of sun, cloud, and possibly smoke, it will be another quiet weather day in the Peace region, with no significant precipitation expected. It will be a bit warmer than Thursday, with highs reaching the mid-20s. It will be another good day for field work, ahead of the hotter weather on the way for the weekend.
Alberta
Southern Alberta holds a hot temperature threat through the day. By afternoon, thunderstorms may develop along the central foothills, and Medicine Hat sees a humidex threat on top of a hot temperature threat covering the southeast. Temperatures south of the Trans Canada Highway will reach the low 30s, and it’s expected to get even hotter over the weekend. This is a good day to make sure irrigation and livestock water systems are ready to handle the weekend’s heat before it fully arrives.
Saskatchewan
Thunderstorms develop over southwestern Saskatchewan in the morning, with a hot temperature threat holding across the south. By afternoon, storms extend to areas south of the Yellowhead Highway, with a humidex threat covering southern Saskatchewan and a hot temperature threat continuing in the southwest. Watch for the possibility of air quality warnings here too, as smoke is expected to become more of a factor. Outside of the thunderstorms, the rest of Saskatchewan will have a dry day. West of Regina, highs in southern Saskatchewan will reach the 30s. In central, northern, and southeastern regions, expect afternoon highs in the high 20s.
Manitoba
A relatively quiet day, with the humidity knocked back by Thursday’s front, and temperatures remaining comfortable in the mid-20s. It is expected to be dry across Manitoba, with no significant showers or storms.
Saturday
Peace Region
Conditions stay dry and warm through the early morning, but by midday, rain arrives in the Peace Region in both Alberta and BC as a Pacific low approaches. This is the first sign of the pattern change that will arrive more fully on Sunday. In general, the Peace region can expect about 10 mm of rain, with up to 20 mm south of Fort St. John, and near the town of Peace River on the Alberta side. The wet weather will hold afternoon temperatures to the high teens.
Alberta
This is forecast to be the hottest day of the stretch for the province, with Lethbridge and Medicine Hat pushing into the mid-to-high 30s and Calgary and Red Deer reaching the low 30s. By afternoon, rain and thunderstorms expand across central and northern Alberta, with a wind gust threat developing along the foothills and a humidex threat covering central and southern parts of the province. If you’re finishing up harvest operations or hauling grain, plan around the hottest part of the afternoon and keep an eye on wind gusts near the mountains.
Saskatchewan
Thunderstorms develop over southeastern Saskatchewan before sunrise, with humidex and hot temperature thresholds covering the south, including the Medicine Hat corridor just across the boundary. Afternoon storms and heat will expand to cover most of central and southern Saskatchewan, with Moose Jaw and Regina forecast to reach the mid-to-high 30s and humidity making it feel close to 40 in places. This combination of heat and humidity is hard on livestock and harder on people working outside, so plan for extra water breaks and shade throughout the afternoon.
Manitoba
Thunderstorms develop over southwestern Manitoba in the early morning as the approaching system starts to make its presence felt. The rest of the day will be hot and dry. Heat and humidity continue building ahead of what’s expected to be Sunday’s peak for the province. Saturday afternoon temperatures will reach the high 20s with sunshine. It may be a good day to plan for precautions from heat stress on Sunday.
Sunday
Peace Region
Rain continues across the northern half of Alberta, including the Peace Region, with a wind gust threat developing across the province as the low-pressure system responsible for the weekend’s pattern change moves through. The low will strengthen as it moves into the Cold Lake area, sending moisture all the way back into the Peace. Temperatures will peak in the 15 to 18 degree range.
Alberta
Rain covers the northern half of the province through the morning, with thunderstorms developing across central and northern Alberta. Central and southern Alberta hold on to hot conditions early, with a humidex threat in the east, but a wind gust threat covers the entire province both morning and afternoon as the fast-moving low pushes through. The low will hang out along the Alberta-Saskatchewan boundary between Lloydminster and Cold Lake, and produce significant rain (see map below). This is the same system bringing the sharply cooler weather for Sunday, with daytime highs expected to drop by about 10 degrees behind it. If you’re in the south, expect the heat to break hard Sunday rather than easing gradually. Afternoon temperatures could fall all the way to the mid-teens in central and northern Alberta, and from the mid-30s to the mid-20s in the south.
As the map shows, some parts of north-central Alberta and Saskatchewan could receive more than 50 mm of rain:
Saskatchewan
Thunderstorms cover much of the province throughout the day, with rain reaching the northern half by afternoon alongside northwestern Manitoba. Central and southern Saskatchewan, stretching east to Regina, hold onto hot temperatures and humidex thresholds through the morning, with the humidex threat continuing into the afternoon. A wind gust threat develops province-wide by afternoon, driven by an intense low tracking into northern Saskatchewan. That low produces the rain shown on the map above. The cooldown in Saskatchewan follows Alberta’s, arriving more fully by Monday. Temperatures in northern Saskatchewan will drop to the mid-teens. In the south, expect highs in the mid 20s.
Manitoba
This is the day the warmest, muggiest air of the weekend arrives in southern Manitoba, with Winnipeg and Brandon in for heat and humidity similar to what Saskatchewan felt on Saturday. Rain and thunderstorms reach the northwestern part of the province by afternoon, with a humidex threat covering southern Manitoba and the Interlake and a wind gust threat developing as the intense low in northeastern Saskatchewan pushes east. Unlike Alberta, the cooldown here won’t be as dramatic and isn’t expected to arrive fully until Monday. Temperatures will reach the low 30s across the south.
