Rain is happening! An expected change in the weather pattern brought rain to Alberta on Thursday, and there is more to come, not just for Alberta, but across the prairies. The image below shows a radar estimate of the rain totals to 11:24 AM Alberta time June 12
The map above shows as of midday Thursday the heaviest rainfall has fallen over 24 hours is in the Brooks/Bassano region. This map will be outdated by the time you read this, but it does give a good perspective on the moisture that has returned to southern Alberta. And there is much more to come to all three prairie provinces in the week ahead. Moisture feeding in from the Gulf of Mexico will interact with Pacific storm systems to generate Low pressure systems with showers and thunderstorms across the prairies.
This map shows rainfall expected until the early evening of June 25, according to the European model. Central regions of all three provinces can expect the most (90 mm+), with over 30 mm for parts of southern Alberta and southern Saskatchewan. Southern Manitoba will likely miss out on the heavier precipitation, but amounts will range from 10-30 mm over the next couple of weeks . It looks like we’re in for a wet weather pattern for the last two weeks of June!
An upper level Low anchored off the coast of British Columbia will remain in place for several days. It will force the jetstream into the northwestern US, and northern Montana. This will cause lows to form on the prairies, which will generate showers and storms over Canadian agricultural land. The map below shows the upper low (X), and the jetstream wrapping around the low, headed toward southern Alberta (oval). It’s in the area of the oval where storms are likely to form, track east and spread rain across the prairies.
This isn’t just a one-off. We expect to see this pattern repeating itself several times in the course of the next week or so, meaning several days of wet weather. This does not mean it will rain continuously. It won’t. And, the precipitation totals for the next several days will not come out exactly as depicted on the map above, due to uncertainty caused by thunderstorm clusters. Some areas, hit by the storms, will have higher precipitation than those areas the storms miss.
It is safe to say though, the next two weeks will be rainier, as the weather pattern becomes more active.
Thursday
Alberta
A weak low pressure system forms in southeastern BC, spreading rain into southern and central Alberta, with a good chance of thunderstorms, even hail-producing thunderstorms. Most of the wet weather will occur east of Highway 2, particularly in the Brooks and Bassano areas. Lethbridge taps into this beneficial rainfall, but Medicine Hat misses out on most of it. Because of the wet weather, highs will range from the low to high teens. 20 to 30 mm of rain could fall over central regions Thursday.
Saskatchewan
Highs will reach the high teens and low 20s, but unfortunately Alberta’s rain won’t make it as far east as Saskatchewan until late in the day. Even then, it will stick around the Alberta boundary in the Lloydminster area, with amounts somewhere between 5 and 10 mm. A second area of rain will develop in southwestern Saskatchewan, south of the Trans Canada highway. Elsewhere, Saskatchewan will experience a mix of sun and cloud.
Manitoba
Like Saskatchewan, Manitoba’s temperatures will be near or slightly below average, in the high teens and low 20s. And like Saskatchewan, most of the province will be under a mix of sun and cloud.
Friday
Alberta
More rain is expected in Alberta Friday. For central regions, it will be a day long event, with the heaviest rain, and some thunderstorms by midday northwest of Edmonton. It will be dry in the south through the midday, with showers and possible thunderstorms developing in the afternoon, as a Low pressure system forms near Carseland. There will be considerable surface heat in southeastern Alberta, with temperatures in the high 20s, which increases the probability of severe weather, including hail.
Saskatchewan
After morning showers, thunderstorms, and possibly severe thunderstorms are expected along the Alberta boundary Friday afternoon. The area will experience highs in the high 20s, and in the afternoon, when a Low forms southeast of Calgary, the atmosphere over western Saskatchewan will become unstable, allowing the storms to form. Some of the storms may produce hail. Pay close attention to weather warnings for southern Saskatchewan on Friday.
Manitoba
Manitoba will have a dry day, with mainly sunny to partly cloudy conditions. No significant weather is expected. In southern Manitoba and the Interlake, highs will reach the low to mid 20s. To the north, highs will reach the teens.
Saturday
While the upper air map above shows conditions for Friday afternoon, the map for Saturday is almost identical. And so is the weather, with one key difference. Rain across Alberta and Saskatchewan will push further north, and mainly affect areas north of the Yellowhead highway. To the south in Alberta, it will be dry, with a westerly wind. In Saskatchewan, a Low will form near Outlook, drawing some moisture as far south as Saskatoon by late afternoon. Expect highs near or slightly above 25 in central and southern Saskatchewan. It will be 5-10 degrees cooler to the north. Dry conditions will continue in Manitoba, with highs in the high teens or low 20s.
Sunday
Hotter weather returns to the prairies Sunday, with highs between 25 and 30 across southern Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. Again, in the afternoon, the air will become unstable, with isolated showers and storms popping up across all three provinces. While it looks quite certain storms will develop, due to their random nature, it’s all but impossible to predict exactly where they will happen Weather Warnings should be monitored, with the possibility of severe storms, including hail.
COMPARE: Prairie Weather This Week – June 2
