Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Now we need some rain!

Forest fire smoke across the prairies is adding a layer of complication to making this week’s forecast. Smoke can suppress convection, block sunlight, lower temperatures, and provide condensation nuclei which may enhance precipitation. Forecasts are made on the presumption of a smoke free sky. And, since smoke is hard to predict,  forecast errors will inevitably increase.  Smoke forecasting based on wind direction can be done. However, new fires will add unexpected smoke to unexpected places. Extinguished fires will remove smoke. Until we can pre-determine when and where a fire will start, weather forecasting on smoky days will continue to be fraught with inconsistency.

And that brings us to the current situation. Smoke has become widespread across northern Alberta, and may get worse depending on the behavior of lightning storms. With multiple fires across Saskatchewan and Manitoba, smoke will come and go throughout the week, impacting forecast accuracy.

With dry weather over the past week to ten days across the prairies, seeding has moved rapidly.   The job is almost done….

The Alberta crop report shows seeding for major crops is now 90 percent done…97 percent in the south zone. The Saskatchewan Crop Report shows 88% completion, and in Manitoba, 85 percent of seeding has been done. All three provinces are well ahead of their respective average paces.

Now that the seeds are in the ground, we need rain again to help with germination and growth. There are indications that later in the week, we will get some rain across the prairies. Early in the week, it will stay on the dry side, allowing for the completion of seeding. Next weekend, an upper level system will produce rain and thunderstorms over much of the prairies.

That said, with the exception of southwestern Alberta and northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, rainfall amounts may be less than impressive.   The map below shows rainfall amounts expected up to and including the afternoon of Sunday June 8:

The map shows rainfall amounts over agricultural areas may be disappointing.   And, the heaviest  rainfall is expected to fall to the north of the major fire areas.   However, there will be at least some rain over southern agricultural regions, and with new seeds in the ground, every drop does help.

Monday

Alberta

The day begins early in the morning with rain, and potentially heavy rain, in southwestern Alberta.    The rain will pull out of the Waterton/Crowsnest/Pincher Creek area by midday, moving toward Milk River and Medicine Hat.  At some point during the day, the entire area south of highway 3 will get at least some rain.  In the afternoon, there is a severe thunderstorm threat in the area, and north along the foothills to highway 11 in central Alberta.   It will be a fairly cool day, with highs in the mid teens to low 20s across the province.

Saskatchewan

A large Low pressure system will provide rainstorms to the forests of northeastern Saskatchewan Monday, well away from any agricultural territory and away from forest fires.   Toward early evening, a disturbance that provide rain to southern Alberta earlier in the day will move into southwestern Saskatchewan.  It will weaken, and by the time it arrives in the late afternoon, there won’t be much more than a few light showers.  South of the Trans Canada Highway, the rest of the province will be cloudy and dry.  North of the TCH, sunnier conditions will prevail.  With a northwest wind, it will be cool, with highs in the high teens in most of the province.

Manitoba

Cooler weather returns to Manitoba after a hot weekend.   The atmosphere will be quite unstable, though, in the south.  A line of showers and thunderstorms will track through the Red River Valley Monday morning and will make its way to the Whiteshell and southeastern Manitoba by the afternoon.   Temperatures will peak in the high teens across most of the agricultural south.  It should be a bit warmer in the Interlake, with highs of 20 to 25.

Tuesday

Alberta

Pop up showers and storms can be expected in southern Alberta Tuesday.  They’ll occur at random, and it’s impossible to pinpoint any specific location.  The atmosphere in the entire area will be unstable.   There will be a threat of severe thunderstorms in southwestern Alberta, north along the foothills to Highway 11, and that threat could remain into the late evening and overnight.   In central and northern regions, including the Peace region, expect a sunny day.   It will be cool again, with highs across the province reaching only 15-20 degrees.  It will be even cooler in the foothills and mountains.

Saskatchewan

Strong rainstorms continue Tuesday in the northern part of the province, but in the south, it remains dry, and mostly sunny.   There may be a few pop up showers or storms south of Saskatoon late in the day, but otherwise the southern half of the province will be dry with a WNW wind.   Parts of central Saskatchewan may warm to the low 20s, but the rest of the province will be cooler, with highs of 15 to 20 degrees.

Manitoba

Severe  weather is not expected in Manitoba on Tuesday, though some showers and non severe thunderstorms may pop up in the late afternoon.   Rain will continue in the province’s far north.  It will warm up again, after the relatively cool weather on Monday.   In the Red River Valley and southeastern Manitoba, temperatures will warm to the low 20s,  reaching the high teens elsewhere in the agricultural south.   With rainy weather continuing in the far north, highs will only reach 5-15 degrees.

 

Wednesday

Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba

No significant weather is expected across the prairie provinces on Wednesday, except for a continuation of the rain in northern Manitoba.   It will be mainly sunny across agricultural regions, and the wind is expected to be light.  As you see in the map below, afternoon temperatures are expected to peak in the high teens or low 20s, with most areas reaching 18 to 22 degrees:

 

 

 

 

Thursday

Alberta and Saskatchewan

Warmer weather returns to Alberta and Saskatchewan Thursday, as high temperatures reach the mid twenties.   Mainly sunny conditions are expected, but there may be just enough heat to make the atmosphere unstable, bringing back the risk of afternoon showers and storms, particularly over southeastern Saskatchewan.  If there are showers, they will be scattered.  If there are storms, they will be weak.  There is no threat of severe weather.

Manitoba

High pressure will develop over Lake Winnipeg, and the sinking air associated with the high should prevent convection in most areas.   So,  the province should stay dry.   There is a possibility of weak showers or thunderstorms in southwestern Manitoba in the afternoon.   Any showers or storms will be rather weak, and the chance of further activity will diminish as the sun goes down.  Highs in southern Manitoba’s agricultural regions should reach the mid 20s on Thursday.

 

Friday

Alberta

A Low pressure system developing over Great Slave Lake will put Alberta in a westerly flow, with a mix of sun and cloud.   That will bring warm and dry weather to the province with high temperatures reaching the high 20s. The Low, though, isn’t sitting still.  It moves to the southeast during the day, sending rain into northern Alberta, and creating strong wind gusts in the Alberta foothills north of highway 16 into the BC Peace region.   No precipitation is expected for Alberta’s agricultural regions.

Saskatchewan

The southern half of the province will be partly cloudy with a southwest wind, and in the north, with a light and variable wind, expect mainly cloudy conditions.   In the afternoon, a weak Low will form on the boundary with the Northwest Territories, and spread cloud into central and southwestern Saskatchewan.  Rain will reach the northern forests, but otherwise it will be a dry day across the province.  In the south, high temperatures will reach the high 20s, while in the north, highs will be closer to the low to mid twenties.

Manitoba

It will be dry all day in the agricultural regions of southern Manitoba,  as rain develops in the far north, along a warm front coming from a Low in northern Saskatchewan.   This is well away from agricultural interests.   Expect highs in the mid twenties across southern Manitoba.

 

Saturday

Alberta

A low that developed in northern Saskatchewan Friday will strengthen Saturday morning as it moves closer to northern Manitoba.   It will spread rain along a trough back into northeastern Alberta.  A second area of showers will develop in east central Alberta near the Saskatchewan line early in the morning.   This is the only agricultural region to get any rainfall out of this, and it won’t be a meaningful amount of precipitation.  In the afternoon, as the parent Low moves into Manitoba, the rain in Alberta drifts eastward into Saskatchewan, replaced by a clearing sky and a northwest wind.  Temperatures will be close to long term averages.  In central Alberta, highs will reach only the high teens, and in southern Alberta, it will warm to the low 20s.

Saskatchewan

It will be a rainy day in Saskatchewan, as moisture circulating around a low pressure system will provide light rain in the south, and heavier rain in the northern part of the province.   The low is the one that developed in northern regions Friday.  It moves into Manitoba Saturday, circulating rain back into Saskatchewan.   In the south, the rain will carry on through the morning and midday, ending in the afternoon.   In the north, the rain will be an all day event, with the heaviest rainfall happening north of Saskatoon.   The low is not only pushing rain into the province – it is also generating a northwesterly wind, which will keep temperatures across Saskatchewan below 20 degrees.

Manitoba

The low from northern Saskatchewan moves into northern Manitoba Saturday, with rain spreading out across the entire province  The rain arrives in the afternoon, and carries on into Saturday, providing ample moisture for the emergence of newly seeded crops.   The heaviest rain is expected in the Interlake and southern Manitoba.  The map below shows accumulated rainfall by early Monday morning:

East of the Red River Valley on Saturday, temperatures should reach the high 20s.  Elsewhere, high teens and low twenties are more likely.

Sunday

Alberta

With high pressure building in the Rockies between Banff and Jasper, Sunday will be a sunny day all across Alberta, with no wet weather of any kind.  The wind will remain out of the north,  which will prevent a truly hot day from developing.   Highs across Alberta will reach the mid twenties, perhaps just a few degrees warmer than average.

Saskatchewan

The Low that moved into Manitoba from Saskatchewan on Saturday, will spin around that province Sunday, pushing rain back into the eastern half of Saskatchewan through the day.  Refer to the map above to check out expected rainfall by Monday morning.   Parts of eastern and northwestern Saskatchewan can expect a fair soaking, whereas southwestern portions of the province will remain dry.   Highs will reach the high teens across most of the province, but along the Manitoba boundary, in places like Yorkton, Esterhazy, and Preeceville,  high temperatures won’t be high at all, sticking close to just 10 degrees.

Manitoba

Sunday will be a rainy day across Manitoba, as the low pressure system that came into the province on Saturday spins in place, dropping rain across most of the province.   Again, the map above shows expected accumulations to early Monday morning.   By late afternoon, the centre of low pressure moves into northwestern Ontario, but there is still plenty of rain for the southern half of Manitoba.   That rain will continue through the night into Monday morning, though it will taper off.    It will be a wet, cool day, with highs across Manitoba only getting to the 10-15 degree range.

 

COMPARE:  Prairie Weather This Week – May 26