Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Wet weather pattern continues through the weekend, with a few windows of reprieve
After weeks of relentless systems, there is finally a break in sight. But we still have to be patient. A large upper low that has been anchored over northern Manitoba is the last major player in the current stretch, and it is gradually weakening and drifting southeast toward northwestern Ontario. Thursday and Friday deliver the best conditions of the week for most of the prairies, with genuine sunshine and near-seasonal temperatures. The reprieve is short. A new organized weather system arrives Saturday into Sunday, bringing the potential for significant rainfall across central Alberta and the foothills, with 70mm or more possible in the Smoky, McLeod, Pembina, North Saskatchewan, Battle, and Red Deer river basins. River levels in those watersheds are already elevated from recent events. Monitor the Alberta River Forecast Centre closely heading into the weekend.
Thursday
Peace Region
It’ll be a seasonably cool day with highs reaching the high teens and a mix of sun and cloud through the afternoon. Northwest winds gust to 40 km/h through the morning before easing. The shower risk is real but not dominant, and the afternoon trend is toward improving conditions. If your fields are fit and you have spray work waiting, Thursday afternoon in the Peace could be quite productive, particularly on lighter soils that have drained from recent rains.
Alberta
Thursday is a transition day. A shortwave over northern Alberta continues to drive scattered, mostly non-severe thunderstorm activity across the province through the afternoon. Edmonton carries a greater risk of thunderstorms in the afternoon and northwest winds gusting to 40 km/h, with a high near 20. Calgary will be cool with showers through the day, followed by overnight clearing. There is a risk of funnel clouds on Thursday in southeastern Alberta during the afternoon and evening. Normally, the types of funnels expected are not dangerous near the ground. However, there is a chance this rotation could intensify into a weak landspout tornado. Treat any funnel cloud sighting seriously and prepare to take shelter if one develops nearby. A localized risk of quarter-sized hail exists over east-central Alberta. While showers are expected throughout the day in central and southern Alberta, northern areas improve more quickly.
Saskatchewan
The shortwave over northern Alberta will move south into west-central Saskatchewan on Thursday afternoon, providing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Thursday afternoon carries a storm risk in western and central Saskatchewan as the shortwave pushes through, but activity should diminish quickly overnight as the feature moves east. The morning hours on Thursday are your best window for any spray or seeding work across the province before afternoon convection develops. Like Alberta, it will be seasonably cool across Saskatchewan, with temperatures reaching the high teens … 20 degrees at best.
Manitoba
Temperatures will reach, or at least come close to reaching, 20 degrees on Thursday afternoon, but the wet weather isn’t over yet. There is a daytime break from the rain during the day on Thursday, however. The shortwave moving into southwestern Manitoba overnight Thursday will support scattered showers and a few thunderstorms overnight and into Friday morning across southern Manitoba. Thursday itself is a good day for fieldwork in Manitoba. Temperatures near seasonal norms, mainly sunny skies, and manageable winds make it one of the better days of the past several weeks. Use it. The overnight showers will have a limited impact, and the sky should clear by Friday morning.
Friday
Peace Region
High pressure builds into Alberta on Friday, and the entire Alberta/BC Peace region benefits. Mainly clear conditions with highs climbing to near 20 and light winds. Weak upper-level ridging should allow for increasing sunshine and slowly warming temperatures. Friday is the best field day of the period for the Peace Region. Get your spray equipment moving on Friday. This is a rare clean day in what has been an extraordinary stretch of active (and wet) weather.
Alberta
High pressure moves in, bringing welcome weather to the province. Temperatures return to the low-to-mid 20s across central and southern areas and the upper teens in northern regions. Spray windows are excellent on Friday. If you have herbicide passes waiting or any remaining fieldwork, Friday is your day. The risk of precipitation appears relatively low during the day, with the overall forecast favouring mainly dry conditions for most areas. That said, showers are expected to return to central Alberta overnight Friday as the next system approaches, so the window for field work is one day and one day only.
Saskatchewan
It will be a sunny Friday across the province. The upper low is departing, the high is building, and Friday is an excellent day for fieldwork. Central and western Saskatchewan, which have been relatively drier than the rest of the province through the active pattern, have good soil conditions for spray work. The northeast and east-central, where seeding was still behind as of the latest crop report, should have any remaining workable acres in treatment or getting a post-emergence herbicide pass on Friday. These conditions will not last, as significantly more active weather returns on the weekend.
Manitoba
Manitoba sees the least favourable Friday of the four regions covered in this outlook, with the shortwave that tracked through Saskatchewan overnight pushing showers and a thunderstorm risk into the province through the morning. The gusty northwest winds behind the system make spray operations difficult even where skies are clear. Afternoon conditions slowly improve from west to east as the shortwave clears. With the clouds and wet weather, it will be cool, with highs confined to the high teens. Saturday looks considerably better for the province.
Saturday
Peace Region
A disturbance riding over the top of the building ridge brings showers and thunderstorms to central and northern Alberta through the weekend. The Peace Region sits on the northwestern edge of this system’s reach on Saturday. Clouds increase throughout the day with showers developing by afternoon. Highs stay in the mid-to-upper teens. Not a washout, but not a great day for working the fields either.
Alberta
Saturday is the beginning of what could be a significant rain event for central Alberta. And it will be cool, with temperatures only reaching the mid-to-high teens. In south-central and southern Alberta, showers are likely. The rain will be stronger and steadier in central and north-central Alberta. Across central Alberta, the rain will be steady. The Alberta River Forecast Centre is keeping an eye on the Smoky, McLeod, Pembina, North Saskatchewan, Battle, and Red Deer river basins closely, with the potential for over 70mm from this weekend event in those watersheds. This is not simply another round of scattered showers. It is an organized weather system that could deliver concentrated rainfall to already-saturated terrain. If you farm near any of those river systems, check the ARFC bulletin Saturday morning and move any equipment or livestock out of flood-prone areas before the heaviest rain arrives. Saturday is not a field day in central or southern Alberta.
Saskatchewan
Saturday brings increasing cloud across Saskatchewan with highs in the 20 to 24 degree range across southern and central areas before periods of rain arrive overnight and into Sunday. Central and southern Saskatchewan both see cloudy Saturday nights with developing rain showers. The warm afternoon Saturday ahead of the incoming system represents a brief window for late-day field operations in central and eastern Saskatchewan. Western Saskatchewan clouds over sooner as the Alberta system pushes east. The morning is your better opportunity across most of the province on Saturday. By evening, conditions will be deteriorating province-wide.
Manitoba
Saturday is the best fieldwork or spraying day of the next few days for Manitoba. The upper low has fully departed, the Alberta weekend system has not yet arrived, and the province sits in a clean window. Make the most of it. This is an excellent day for herbicide applications and any remaining fieldwork across central and eastern Manitoba. The weekend should bring some improvement across the eastern prairies, with longer periods of sunshine and a gradual warming trend. “Gradual” is the keyword here. Highs Saturday in Manitoba are still stuck below average, with temperatures reaching the high teens, or, at best, 20 degrees.
Sunday
Peace Region
Clouds thicken on Sunday with showers likely as a low-pressure system strengthens in Alberta. The Peace Region will miss out on the heavier precipitation, with showers and storms expected to the southeast. Because of the relatively drier weather, temperatures in the Peace will reach the low 20s and will be one of the warmer areas of the agricultural west. Sunday is the first day of summer, but the clouds, showers, and cooler-than-average temperatures will dampen the celebratory mood.
Alberta
Sunday is the most impactful day of the weekend for central and southern Alberta. An organized and strengthening low-pressure system delivers heavy rainfall to the foothills and central regions, with snow possible at higher elevations near Jasper. River flooding is a real possibility. Do not drive through flooded roadways and monitor the ARFC bulletin throughout the day. The map below shows rainfall expected during the day on Sunday in BC and Alberta. It is clear that the heaviest rain, 40-60 mm, is targeted for central Alberta.
It will be chilly, with highs in the low to mid-teens. In the foothills and mountains, it may remain cooler than 10 degrees all day. By early next week, conditions should begin trending warmer and more stable as stronger ridging develops across the western prairies. By Tuesday and Wednesday, many areas could see temperatures climbing into the upper twenties with plenty of sunshine. That improvement cannot come soon enough for Alberta producers.
Saskatchewan
The Alberta system pushes through the southern half of Saskatchewan on Sunday, delivering needed moisture to some areas while adding to the burden in those already at adequate to surplus levels. The map below shows that rainfall in southern Saskatchewan will be significant, though not enough to create a serious flooding concern:
In the rainy areas, temperatures will peak in the low teens. To the north, where it will be sunnier, expect highs in the low 20s. By Monday, another disturbance is expected to increase chances for showers and thunderstorms across central and southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, though widespread severe weather does not appear likely. Sunday is not a field day for most of Saskatchewan. Use the morning to scout crop conditions and assess any hail or wind damage from the week before the next rain wets things down further.
Manitoba
Manitoba has the best weather of our four regions on Sunday. The Alberta-Saskatchewan system largely tracks to the west and south, leaving the province with a mix of sun and cloud and comfortable temperatures reaching the high teens and low 20s. Central and eastern Manitoba producers get a second good fieldwork day on the first day of summer. Looking toward the middle of next week, confidence increases that stronger upper-level ridging will begin building into the western prairies and gradually spread eastward, bringing a return to average or slightly above-average temperatures along with more sunshine and fewer opportunities for precipitation. After several weeks of stalled systems, cool air, and active weather, the overall pattern finally appears poised to shift toward something more summer-like.
COMPARE: Prairie Weather this Week – June 15
