Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Crops coming up, rain coming down
Rain, showers, and thunderstorms across the prairies over the past couple of weeks, have established a base of soil moisture in many areas, and more precipitation is needed to keep it from drying out. Though some early seeders are reporting irreversible damage from heat and wind earlier in the year, those who planted later in the spring, have reason to be hopeful, according to agronomist Matt Gosling of Premium Ag. In a recent interview with Rural Roots Canada, Gosling said, “Anything we get over the next two weeks will keep the oil in the engine, and we should be in for a respectable crop. I don’t think it will be a bumper.”
He also pointed out some of the crops are maturing about two weeks ahead of the normal pace, as shown in this photo of a wheat field near Standard, AB:
As Gosling says, can we keep oil in the engine? Here’s the day to day forecast through the coming weekend:
Thursday
Alberta
An unstable atmosphere will provide very unsettled weather for Alberta on Thursday. As a result, expect to see showers and thundershowers scattered across the province during the day. There is only a slight chance of severe storms over Alberta’s agricultural regions, so the moisture will be beneficial. But will it be plentiful? In most areas, no. In some areas, yes. Storms with multiple cells could form in the afternoon, providing substantial rain to isolated areas. The amount of rain that falls in any one given spot will depend upon how fast the storm passes through. Slow moving storms will drop a lot more rain than faster moving disturbances. Expect the storms to be slower the further north you go. Afternoon temperatures west of highway 2 will reach the high teens. East of highway 2, it will be warmer, with highs in the low to mid twenties.
Saskatchewan
A low pressure system will bring rain to the forests in the northern half of Saskatchewan. Elsewhere, look for convective showers and storms across the province. There is a possibility of severe thunderstorms over a wide area of central Saskatchewan. The strongest storms are expected to start near Regina and move northeast this evening. These storms could bring large hail and strong, gusty winds. There’s also a chance of a tornado, but that’s uncertain because the storms are expected to be somewhat disorganized. Severe thunderstorms will likely continue through the evening and could last into the night. Again, the storms will be isolated, not widespread, but could be capable of causing significant hail damage. It will be very warm in southern Saskatchewan with highs in the high 20s, providing the thermal fuel needed for storm development.
Manitoba
It will warm up a bit Thursday in Manitoba, but temperatures across the province will stick to the low 20s. It will be dry and mostly sunny in the south, with a light and variable wind. Storms from Saskatchewan could move toward southwestern Manitoba late in the evening, leading to the possibility of nocturnal thunderstorms, with the possibility of severe weather.
Friday
Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba
A change in the weather pattern will bring wet weather to all three prairie provinces starting Friday and continuing into the weekend. A weak trough of low pressure will move from northeastern Montana into southeastern Saskatchewan during the day, and will intensify. By midday, the system is producing showers and maybe scattered thunderstorms in southern Alberta, southern Saskatchewan, and western Manitoba. All those areas will be under a threat of thunderstorms, some of which may be severe. In the late afternoon, most of Saskatchewan will experience rain and storms. Likewise, the area of rain in Alberta will expand to include all but the central part of the province. And in Manitoba, scattered showers and storms will continue through the afternoon in the southwest. Manitoba could be in for some noisy nocturnal thunderstorms Friday night, as the core of the storm moves out of Saskatchewan, and into Manitoba. As this happens, the rain tapers off to showers in Saskatchewan and Alberta. In Alberta, afternoon temperatures will only reach the mid to high teens in the south and the low twenties in the north. Saskatchewan will be warmer, with highs across the province in the low 20s, and in Manitoba, afternoon temperatures will reach the mid to high twenties. That Manitoba heat will fuel the stronger storms that will develop Friday night. The map below shows the likelihood of afternoon thunderstorms Friday.
NOTE: The above map is NOT A FORECAST of Friday afternoon thunderstorms, and should not be regarded as such. The map just shows where thunderstorms are more likely to occur.
Saturday
Alberta
Showers and storms will intensify in central Alberta in the early morning, with thunderstorms breaking out between Edmonton and the Saskatchewan boundary. Most of the activity will occur north of Highway 9, though some showers within 50 km south of the highway can’t be ruled out. The wet weather will peak in the midday, then slowly taper off. The rain should be out of the area in the late evening. The customary afternoon showers and thundershowers are expected to develop over the southern and central foothills south and west of Red Deer in the late afternoon, drift toward Highway 2, then fizzle out overnight. It will be very warm Saturday afternoon. The map below shows temperatures at 3:00 MDT. South of the Trans Canada Highway, temperatures will reach the high 20s, close to 30.
Saskatchewan
Showers will fall across central Saskatchewan through most of the day Saturday, becoming more widespread in the afternoon. Thunderstorms are again possible, especially in a line from Macklin to Regina. The storms are not expected to be severe, but will be worth monitoring for small to medium sized hail. Elsewhere, non-severe showers and occasional thunderstorms are expected to pop up across Saskatchewan during the day. As the map above shows, hot weather can be expected between the Trans Canada Highway and the US border, with temperatures peaking in the low 20s in central regions.
Manitoba
A Low pressure system will move through central Manitoba during the day, and areas of heavier rain, showers, and storms will soak the Interlake in the early morning. The rain, and storms will extend along a trough to the south of the Low, producing wet weather across most of southern Manitoba, and down the Red River Valley into the US. By midday, the heavier rain will have rapidly moved off into Ontario, to be followed by lighter, more intermittent showers for the rest of the day in southern Manitoba, especially north of the Trans Canada Highway. Afternoon temperatures across southern Manitoba could reach the low 20s at best.
Sunday
Alberta
Sunshine returns to Alberta, and significant weather is not expected anywhere in the province. The sky will clear out due to a High pressure system that develops over the Rockies, near the Columbia Icefields. A westlery wind across Alberta will keep the weather dry, and temperatures should rise to the 20-25 degree range across most of the province, with southern regions hitting the 25-30 degree range.
Saskatchewan
A mix of sun and cloud with pop-up showers can be expected across most of Saskatchewan Sunday, though the southwest will stay dry. Severe weather is unlikely, though non-severe storms in the afternoon could occur in southeastern and central regions. Afternoon temperatures across Saskatchewan should reach 20-25 degrees.
Manitoba
Manitoba will have a rather active weather day, especially compared to the quiet conditions in Saskatchewan and Alberta. An upper trough will created unsettled conditions across southern and central Manitoba. Expect widespread showers, with, possibly, the occasional afternoon thunderstorm. Severe storms are unlikely. The wet weather will keep temperatures suppressed, with highs in the high teens or low 20s.
COMPARE: Prairie Weather This Week – June 16
