Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) –  Drought expands…will there be enough rain to reverse the damage?

Dry, windy, and warm weather in May has led to the expansion of drought conditions across the prairies.

Extreme drought returned to central Saskatchewan and southwestern Alberta.   The map below shows the latest update of the Canadian Drought Monitor:

 

 

According to the Canadian Drought Monitor, 72 percent of agricultural land on the prairies is either abnormally dry or in moderate to extreme drought.   Rain did return to many areas in the second week of June, after the current drought assessment took place.   It is clear, though, that much more moisture is needed, and there is rain in the outlook for the rest of the month.   In the meantime, there are concerns about surface water levels in the Oldman and St. Mary River basins, as irrigation demand rises.     In Saskatchewan, a widespread area of extreme drought has opened up in central regions,  due to high temperatures and low precipitation.

The Drought Monitor says the lack of rainfall has left farmers unable to refill dugouts, as they watch their newly seeded crops struggle through emergence.   Southeastern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba are no longer considered abnormally dry or in drought.   The remainder of the two provinces are grappling with dry conditions that have cut into soil moisture levels.

For the next week, we expect temperatures to be near or below  the seasonal average.  So, we don’t expect there will be extreme heat to accelerate drying.   In fact, quite the opposite.  In addition to the “normal’ temperatures, the southern prairies should see average to above average precipitation through the next week.   As always, some areas will get more than others, meaning not everyone will receive satisfactory rainfall.

The animated chart below shows expected rainfall Monday and Tuesday:

 

Courtesy:  MSC AniMet

The map above shows only the expected rainfall for Monday and Tuesday.  It’s important to note that  in those two days, rainfall is not expected in the drought-stricken areas of southern Alberta, central Saskatchewan, or southern Manitoba.    Rain is expected later in the week for some of those areas. The overarching question remains:  Will it be enough?

Let’s find out.

Monday

More than two weeks into meteorological summer, we’re now into the familiar pattern of quiet mornings, followed by thunderstorms in the afternoons and evenings.   The map below shows where thunderstorms are most likely to occur Monday afternoon:

 

 

Rainfall, though, as shown in the animated map above, will be more widespread across the prairies.  As mentioned, southern Alberta, central Saskatchewan, and southern Manitoba are likely to remain dry.

Alberta

A quasi-stationary upper Low off the BC Coast continues to drive our weather across the prairies, as it ejects disturbances that will provide off and on rain for the next several days.  On Monday, a weak upper trough over Alberta will develop some showers and thunderstorms over the foothills.   It is doubtful they will drift very far eastward.    Thunderstorms are also possible between Cold Lake and Fort McMurray.  Scattered showers are possible elsewhere in northern Alberta.   South of highway 3, highs will reach the high 20s, climbing only the low 20s in the rest of the province.

Saskatchewan

A mix of sun and cloud with scattered afternoon showers will be expected through the afternoon across Saskatchewan.   Precipitation amounts will be minimal, except for areas hit by thunderstorms.   The area around North Battleford  is a good candidate for storms, though they could pop up almost anywhere in the province on Monday.    In Southern Saskatchewan, highs will reach the low to mid twenties.  To the north, it will be five to 10 degrees cooler.

Manitoba

It will be a cool, wet day in southern Manitoba.   Rain will fall across southern Manitoba and the Interlake, circulating around a powerful Low moving from western North Dakota to norhtern Minnesota.   The heavier rain arrives in southwestern Manitoba in the morning, moving east through the day.   By early evening, the rain tapers off in the west, and in the east, the rain should end by midnight.  As the map below shows,  the heaviest accumulations will happen south of the border, with 5-10 mm falling in southern Manitoba.

 

 

Tuesday

Alberta

Afternoon thunderstorms are likely to erupt again across Alberta on Tuesday, as the atmosphere remains unstable.   Central and north Central Alberta are the most likely targets for showers and storms on Tuesday, with the south remaining dry.    South of highway 3, where rain is not expected, temperatures will climb to the high 20s.   Highs in the high teens and low twenties are forecast for the remainder of the province.    Because there is the possibility of some of the storms in central and north central Alberta becoming severe, hail is a threat, and weather warnings from ECCC should be heeded.

Saskatchewan

An afternoon thunderstorm threat can be expected Tuesday in Saskatchewan, with the possibility of severe storms in the southwestern part of the province.   Isolated showers and thunderstorms are likely in north central and southwestern Saskatchewan, but with minimal rain totals – generally around 5 mm or less.    Amounts could be higher beneath individual storms.    Severe thunderstorms often include hail.   Highs across Saskatchewan will reach the low to mid twenties, but there would be rapid cooling and gusty winds in the vicinity of any thunderstorms.

Manitoba

After Monday’s rain, southern Manitoba dries out Tuesday,  though there may be a few afternoon showers, and possibly thundershowers,  in the interlake.   Highs across the province will reach the low 20s.

Wednesday

Alberta

Wednesday is another unsettled day in Alberta, with dry and mainly sunny conditions until the afternoon, when showers are storms are again likely to form in the unstable atmosphere.   Heavy rain looks possible near Edson-Hinton-Jasper, and there may be a few local runoff issues.  Thunderstorms will be possible across the province Wednesday, with a greater possibility of severe storms from Calgary, arcing northwest to Grande Prairie.    A weak low will form east of the foothills near Claresholm due to the unstable atmosphere.   High temperatures across Alberta will reach the mid twenties.

Saskatchewan

High pressure builds in northern Saskatchewan, with Low pressure to the south.   The Low will feed moisture into southern and south central Saskatchewan,  and the High will draw in cool air from the northeast.   It adds up to a cool, rainy day for the southern half of the province, and a clear, cool day for the north.   There is a threat of thunderstorms, possibly severe storms in eastern Saskatchewan, south of the Yellowhead highway.   Highs across Saskatchewan will only reach the high teens or low 20s.

Manitoba

A low pressure system in northern North Dakota will begin to spread rain into southwestern Manitoba early Wednesday.  It will be a rainy day in the south and through the interlake, with high temperatures limited to the high teens and low 20s.   Though it will be cool, thunderstorms and severe thunderstorms can’t be ruled out.   Areas that do get rain can expect from 3 to 6 mm.  The higher accumulations will likely occur north of the Trans Canada Highway.   Further north, high pressure will keep the northern half of Manitoba mainly sunny and cold, with highs between 12 and 15 degrees.

 

Thursday

Alberta

A weak low-pressure system is bringing scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms to central Alberta. This rain will move northeast throughout the day and into tonight. Most areas can expect around 5 to 15 mm of moisture, but heavier local amounts are possible where thunderstorms develop.

This afternoon, a  trough stretching into southern Saskatchewan may trigger more storm activity in central Alberta.  Quickly building clouds could lead to funnel cloud development – something to be aware of, if you’re working outdoors.

The rain and storm activity should taper off overnight.

Central and southern Alberta will not be impacted to such a great extent, with little to no rain expected.   Where it rains, it will be cool, with highs near 15 degrees.   In the south, where rain is not expected,  highs will reach the mid 20s.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

A significant severe weather threat is shaping up, especially from around Yorkton, SK to Virden, MB. A weather system that moved out of Alberta overnight is expected to sit just southwest of Saskatoon by midday. Moisture is building in eastern Saskatchewan, leading to humid conditions with dew points in the mid to upper teens.

Stronger winds higher up in the atmosphere and unstable air will make conditions favorable for powerful storms later in the day. The setup could support large hail—potentially bigger than golf balls—damaging wind gusts over 100 km/h, and even a few tornadoes.

The greatest risk for tornado development will be near a warm front, likely affecting areas around Yorkton and Virden. Storms will likely begin forming in the late afternoon, but they may be fairly isolated.

Elsewhere, in southern and southeastern Manitoba, expect quiet weather, with highs in the mid 20s

 

 

Friday,  Saturday, and Sunday

Heavy Rain

A major rain event begins Friday and continues through the weekend in southern Alberta and Saskatchewan.  Some areas will get well over 100 mm over the three days, with even more to come next week.   With upslope enhancement, up to 200 mm of rain could fall by the end of the weekend in the Pincher Creek/Waterton area.  The map below shows expected rainfall accumulation to midnight Sunday night:

 

Beginning Friday, a low-pressure system from the Pacific is expected to move inland, aiming for southern Alberta. As it arrives, strong southeasterly winds will pull in moist air, setting the stage for heavy rainfall, especially in areas with upslope (easterly) wind flow, such as the foothills.

Widespread totals of 50 to 100 mm across southern Alberta and into the foothills are expected by the end of the weekend. The southwestern foothills, especially around Pincher Creek and Waterton, could see up to 200 mm, due to both terrain effects and thunderstorm activity.

In addition, strong northeasterly winds are expected to pick up on Saturday across southern Alberta. Environment Canada advises that, combined with saturated soils, these winds could lead to tree damage or uprooting, which may pose risks around shelter belts, fence lines, and power lines near fields or livestock areas.

Saskatchewan will also experience heavy rainfall over the weekend, with perhaps over 75 mm in the Rosetown area.  Elsewhere across southern Saskatchewan, 30-50 mm of rain is expected.  As the map above shows, rainfall amounts taper off drmatically north of Saskatoon.

And in Manitoba, 30-40 mm of rain is possible between the Saskatchewan boundary and Lake Winnipegosis.  The rest of Manitoba’s agricultural south will get much less rain, though every drop is beneficial.

The rain will be accompanied by cold weather.   Highs across the southern prairies are expected to reach the mid to high teens on Friday.   With the heavier rain Saturday and Sunday,  highs will be even lower, between high single digits and mid teens.

 

 

 

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