Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Update on drought conditions.   Big winter storms for Saskatchewan and Manitoba at the end of the week.

Central Alberta is hit with two blasts of snow on Thursday,  with storms hitting Saskatchewan and Manitoba at the end of the week.    Details on that are written below, but we also have an update on the prairie drought situation.

A lack of snowfall in February has worsened the drought situation in southwestern Alberta.   The latest Canadian Drought Monitor shows an area along the foothills from Highway 3 north to the Trans Canada highway is now in severe drought.

While southwestern Alberta and British Columbia received very low precipitation, snowfall across the rest of the prairies was average to above average.  The cold weather of early February helped to keep the snow on the ground, improving soil moisture in many areas.   The Canadian Drought Monitor indicates 39% of agricultural land is classified as either dry or in drought.

There was normal or above normal precipitation across the prairies in February, except for the Alberta foothills, central Alberta, and southern Manitoba.    All the snow was of little help, as it failed to accumulate in any big way, so the impact on soil moisture was minimal.  That said, in many areas, particularly in Saskatchewan, drought classifications were removed or reduced.   Despite below average February precipitation, most of Manitoba is not considered to be in drought.

This is the most crucial time of year for snowfall.  Statistically, we get more snow in the late winter and early spring than at any other time of year.  Perfect timing…just weeks ahead of seeding.  However, this year has been dry across parts of the southern prairies, and the window of opportunity for significant snow is starting to close.   Ideally, we’d have a major snowstorm, followed by several cloudy, warm days, allowing the snow to melt and soak into the ground.   Sunshine after a storm is not a farmer’s friend, as it causes the snow to evaporate into the air, rather than soak into the ground.

Thursday

Alberta

Active weather returns to Alberta, with a trough of low pressure forming along the foothills.    If there was a High in southeastern BC, this would put us into chinook conditions.  But…there is  instead a Low over Cranbrook.  that Low will generate precipitation that will cross into central Alberta early in the morning,  descending into southern Alberta in the afternoon.   This could be a significant snow producer, especially east of Edmonton.    But wait, there’s more!   A second blast of snow will hit central Alberta later in the afternoon.   Snowfall warnings are expected from Edmonton north, as a Low pressure system cranks up just southeast of the city.  Some parts of central and north central Alberta can expect 20 cm of snow from this second system this afternoon, with even more snow in the mountain parks.   In south central Alberta, there will be minimal amounts of snow, but with a stronger afternoon wind, even small amounts of snow could create enough blowing snow to reduce visibility in open areas, especially northeast of Calgary.

In the snow, temperatures will peak just below zero.    South of Calgary, no snow is expected, with a westerly wind allowing temperatures to climb to the double digits between Highway 2 and the Saskatchewan boundary.

Saskatchewan

The map above shows a band of significant snow through central Saskatchewan, while to the south and to the north, it remains dry.   Accumulations of 20 cm or more can’t be ruled out, and travel in the area will be disrupted.  On the southern edge of the snow, a narrow band of freezing rain is possible.   Temperatures will hover near -10 in the snowy region though the day.  It will remain much colder to the north, and in the south, it will be much warmer, with a chance of double digit high temperatures southwest of Regina.

Manitoba

As shown on the map above, significant snow is expected in the Flin Flon region.   The north will remain dry and very cold, with highs below -10, and to the south, it will be warmer with areas south of the Interlake reaching highs above the melting point.   Double digit highs are possible south of Portage La Prairie.   Anyone with plans to travel in western Manitoba will need to monitor weather reports closely.  There is a chance of freezing rain between Portage and the Saskatchewan boundary on Thursday afternoon.

Friday

Alberta

In most of Alberta, with the exception of the foothills and mountain parks, snow is expected to taper off before sunrise, though there may be a few lingering flurries in south central and northwestern Alberta.    Elsewhere in northern Alberta, it will remain mainly cloudy, while partly cloudy conditions will prevail in the south.    It will be quite cold first thing in the morning, with temperatures below -10.    And the afternoon will be chilly, with highs only near or slightly below 0 across southern and central regions.   Afternoon temperatures in the north will remain below -10.

Saskatchewan

The wintry week continues in southern and central Saskatchewan.  South of Saskatoon, a widespread area of rain is expected to develop in the early morning, which will change to snow well before noon, as a strong northwesterly wind chills the air.  The snow, across most of Saskatchewan, will continue through the day.  In the afternoon, blowing snow is expected in southeastern Saskatchewan with gusts of the northwest wind reaching 60 km/hr or higher.  A northerly wind will keep temperatures low,  with subfreezing temperatures all day across the province.    Bitterly cold weather remains in the north.   Elsewhere, highs could reach only -5 to -10 south of the Yellowhead, and -10 to -15 north of the Yellowhead.

Manitoba

While the far north remains sunny and very cold, a disturbance south and east of Manitoba will push plenty of moisture into the region.   The wind will come from the north.   In the morning, freezing rain may develop in the Brandon/Dauphin regions, with snow north of Dauphin.   As the system moves into Manitoba in the afternoon, the precipitation will change to snow in western Manitoba, as it pushes the freezing rain east to Portage la Prairie and toward the Red River Valley.   This has the potential to be dangerous weather, and it’s expected warnings will be issued for the region through the day Friday.  Travel plans in southern Manitoba Friday afternoon should be put on hold. , It will be cold, and will likely cause widespread snow and blowing snow across the southern half of the province.  The heaviest snow is expected in the evening west of Winnipeg, and across central and northern Manitoba.   East of Winnipeg, it will be warm enough for evening rain,  which will change to snow overnight.  There is the potential for very heavy snow east of the Red River Valley Friday night into Saturday morning.

Saturday

Alberta

Saturday will be a fairly uneventful day in Alberta, with a partly cloudy sky across the province.  There is a chance for a few flurries across central regions, but accumulations will be minor, and the weather won’t be disruptive.   Temperatures will remain near or below zero across most of the province; a few degrees below average.   The exception is the Lethbridge area, where a warming westerly wind could bring temperatures up to between 5 and 10 degrees.

Saskatchewan

A big break from the stormy, wintry, weather happens on Saturday, when high pressure prevails over the province.   Though the north may be cloudy with some snow, the southern two-thirds of the province will clear out.   Snow on the ground may inhibit the typical afternoon temperature increase,  so highs in agricultural regions may only reach -5 to -10.    It will be even colder in the northern forests.

Manitoba

Friday night’s ugly storm will continue into Saturday morning with heavy snow and freezing rain across southern Manitoba, especially east of the Red River Valley.   This will continue to be a powerful storm on Saturday, with warnings and disruptions to travel expected.   Travel plans in southern Manitoba, particularly east of Winnipeg, should be postponed or cancelled.  It’s likely the storm east of Winnipeg will not begin to taper off until late evening.   Temperatures could climb to near zero, but the wind and snow will make it feel much colder.

Sunday

By Sunday, all the stormy weather is gone, and in many areas, the sky will clear out, and there will be sunshine for those in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, who need to clean up after the Friday and Saturday storms.    Alberta will also have a fairly quiet weather day with a few flurries in central and northern regions, generated by a weak Low over the central foothills.   In southern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan,  temperatures will rise above the melting point, but elsewhere, expect highs to remain below zero.

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