Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) = Drought forecast; More snow?

At the end of every month, the Canadian Drought Monitor is updated, and there are encouraging signs for the next update, especially for Saskatchewan and Manitoba.   In addition to the montly drought monitor, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada releases a projection showing what changes are expected in the next report.   And, if the map below is right, the recent snowfalls in Saskatchewan and Manitoba may have been enough to at least temporarily erase the drought in those two provinces:

 

 

It should be noted that the map is labelled “end of the following month”.  This indeed refers to the end of March.    Areas in green indicate where drought conditions may be removed in the next update.

In addition to the removal of drought in Saskatchewan and Manitoba,  there may be improvement in parts of Alberta that have also been stubbornly dry, especially those areas between Calgary and Edmonton.  Unfortunately, the same can not be said for southwestern Alberta, where the area of drought is expected to expand.

Again, this is just a projection.  The full assessment will be done at the end of the month, and will be released by mid April.  Nonetheless, for most of the prairies, it is encouraging.

It is far too early to forecast weather for the spring and summer of 2025, and It’s impossible to know how prairie drought conditions will evolve in the coming weeks and months.   The chart below looks at precipitation in the months of June, July, and August,  going back to 1940.   It covers the prairie provinces, and shows, as a region, the prairies have not had above average precipitation since 2020, so there is a real need for above average moisture this spring and summer:

 

 

This map shows the area analyzed in the chart above:

 

This week across the prairies starts off rather quiet.  Later in the week, though, there could be some significant snowfall in northern Alberta, and along a diagonal southeast line to southern Manitoba.  Some models are suggesting a large snowstorm for southern Manitoba at the end of the week, though there is plenty of uncertainty.   Unfortunately, the drought stricken areas of southwestern Alberta aren’t in line for any rain or snow this week.

Monday

Alberta

A weak low pressure system will develop Monday morning in southern Alberta, with the precipitation happening to the north of the system, across central Alberta.   Later in the evening, the system will slump southward, and there’s a very slight chance of freezing rain in southern Alberta Monday night.   This system will also produce a gusty wind….as strong as 60-80 km/h.   There will be a westerly component to the wind, which is why the chance of freezing rain is very slight.   On the weekend, we saw, for the first time this season, convective cloud across much of southern Alberta.  The dark clouds, common to summer storms, are expected to return Monday afternoon, and beneath those clouds is where the strongest wind gusts can be expected.   Monday will be a warm day in southern Alberta, as temperatures climb to the high teens south of Calgary,  with highs of 5-10 degrees widespread across the rest of the province.

Saskatchewan

There is a slight chance of freezing rain in southwestern Saskatchewan in the early morning.  That risk will end as temperatures rise, and by the afternoon, southwestern Saskatchewan will reach highs between 10 and 15 degrees.  In northern Saskatchewan, there is a chance of rain, as a weak low crosses the northern part of the province.  The rain will likely begin as snow in the midday, then change over to rain as it warms up in the afternoon.  Amounts will be minimal, and the rain will happen far away from any agricultural concerns.

Manitoba

A weak low and a band of snow will cross northern Manitoba on Monday, providing light snow and cloud cover to the area.   In the south, expect a mainly sunny day, with no significant weather.   Across the province, expect highs between -5 and +5.

 

Tuesday

Alberta

Other than some afternoon snow along the Icefields Parkway, and maybe rain in the foothills, it will be a quiet weather day in Alberta.   A low will form west of Nanton in the late afternoon, and while it will produce only clouds for southern Alberta on Tuesday, things may change on Wednesday (see below).   It will again be quite warm, with temperatures again reaching the high teens south of Calgary, and peaking well above the melting point in the rest of the province.    All this warmth is being drawn into our area from the south, due to a large upper ridge of high pressure.

Saskatchewan

The weak low in northern Saskatchewan will continue to produce snow, rain, and freezing rain to many areas north of Saskatoon.   A band of cloud will extend SSE to western Manitoba, and there may be a few flurries or periods of light snow in that band of cloud, mainly near the Yellowhead Highway.   A westerly wind, and an upper level high will draw warm air into southwestern Saskatchewan, where highs should reach 10=15 degrees.  It will be considerably cooler in the rest of the province, with highs near zero, helping to produce the variety of precipitation expected through the day in northern Saskatchewan.

Manitoba

Most of southern Manitoba will be under a partly cloudy sky Tuesday, but rain or snow can be expected in western Manitoba.   A Low pressure system will bring heavier snow to the northern part of the province, from Churchill southwest to Flin Flon, where it may be warm enough for the precipitation to fall as rain.   In the evening and overnight into Wednesday morning, a cold front will come out of that low, and drag across central Manitoba, creating even more snow from the interlake north.    Southeastern Manitoba will stay dry Tuesday.   Highs near zero can be expected across most of Manitoba, though it will be a bit colder in the north, where snow is expected.

 

Wednesday

Alberta

While dry conditions persist in southern Alberta, the atmosphere becomes somewhat unsettled in central and northern Alberta, where rain is expected through much of the day.  A southeasterly wind will develop, and that will lead to an upslope precipitation event over the next couple of days.   For Wednesday, though the rainfall will mainly affect the area between Red Deer and Edmonton.  The air and ground should be warm enough to discourage freezing rain.   Southern Alberta will again be rather warm, with temperatures reaching the high teens south of High River, the low teens between High River and Red Deer, and positive single digit highs to the north.

Saskatchewan

Some of the extraordinarily warm air experienced this week in southern Alberta will cross into southwestern Saskatchewan Wednesday, but most of the province will experience highs just a few degrees above or below zero.  Significant snow in northern Saskatchewan early in the morning, will head into Manitoba during the afternoon, leaving behind a slowly clearing sky.   Mainly sunny to partly cloudy conditions will prevail in the south, where the weather stays dry.

Manitoba

Yet again, another Low pressure system will cross northern Manitoba, dropping plenty of snow north of the Lakes.   The south, with a westerly wind, will remain dry, and southeastern Manitoba and the Interlake should warm up to the high single digits.    In the north, temperatures will peak between -5 and -10.

 

Thursday

An upslope precipitation event is producing snow in central and northern Alberta and parts of Saskatchewan,  and will then head into southern Manitoba on the weekend.   The same system is producing scattered rain showers at times mixed with snow or snow pellets in Southern Alberta.  The animation below shows the storm moving from northern Alberta to southern Manitoba from midnight Thursday morning, to early Friday morning:

 

 

 

Alberta

As the map above shows, significant snow is expected Thursday in central and Northern Alberta.    At this time of year, a Low in Montana means Snow in Alberta.    The Montana Low will develop Thursday morning, generating an easterly wind in Alberta,   With a good feed of moisture, there will be considerable snow, enhanced by an upslope wind.    The snow will disrupt daytime travel Thursday in the Edmonton area, and in all directions from the capital city.  On the southern edge of the snow, from Devon to Leduc to Ponoka to Lloydminster, there could be a threat of freezing rain.    If you have travel plans on the Yellowhead highway in Alberta or Saskatchewan on Thursday, it may be wise to make alternate plans just in case.    As mentioned above, rain showers will continue in southern Alberta through the day, and even into the evening.   However, as cold weather moves southward overnight, those rain showers will turn to snow.

Saskatchewan

Wintry weather returns to central and northern Saskatchewan.  Snow, at times heavy, can be expected along and north of the Yellowhead highway Thursday, and travel disruptions are likely.   By late afternoon, as the band of snow moves south, it may mix with rain, as it encounters some warmer air.    The snow in central Saskatchewan will persist all day and into Friday, but it will taper off to lighter precipitation Thursday evening.  Accumulations along the Yellowhead corridor will be meaningful, anywhere from 5 to 25 cm.

Manitoba

The system giving snow to Alberta and Saskatchewan will do the same to central Manitoba by late afternoon. The heaviest snow will fall across the interlake, toward the Whiteshell,  with the southern part of the province getting only a cm or two  on Thursday.   This is all ahead of what could be a major snowstorm in southern Manitoba on Friday.   For Thursday, though,  southern and Northern Manitoba will be partly cloudy, as the snow cuts across the interlake.    It will be cool, as only the areas south of the Trans Canada highway have a chance at exceeding the melting point.  This is an exceedingly difficult scenario to forecast for southern Manitoba.  There will be a sharp cutoff or delineation between areas of heavy snow, and areas where there is no snow at all.   And, if the storm track should shift, areas thought to stay dry could be slammed with a major snowfall, and vice versa.

 

Friday

Snowstorm in southern Manitoba,  with a high weather threat for the Winnipeg area, and along the Trans Canada Highway east and west of the Manitoba capital.   More snow is expected in central Saskatchewan,  central Alberta, and Banff National Park.   Showers and even thunderstorms can’t be ruled out in southeastern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan.   A very active day.

 

Alberta

Significant snow will continue to fall in central and northern Alberta Friday, tapering off slowly during the day, as the storm system continues to shift east, focusing on southern Manitoba.  While the map above doesn’t show it, snow will spread across southern Alberta during the day, falling lightly in most from Athabasca south to the US border.   Calgary, Lethbridge, and the rest of southern Alberta could get measurable snowfall, though still under 5 cm in most areas.  High temperatures in southern Alberta will be near 0, with highs just a few degrees lower in central and northern Alberta.

 

Saskatchewan

As the map above shows, southwestern Saskatchewan could experience rain, and even thundershowers near the Cypress Hills. , while central regions could see 6-20 cm, and much of that will fall Friday.   Friday morning could be rather dangerous in southwestern Saskatchewan.   Rain, freezing rain, and snow are all possible all along the Trans Canada Highway west of Swift Current.   Elsewhere, between the Trans Canada highway and Saskatoon, expect light snow through the day, and as the map above shows, higher amounts of snow are possible north of Saskatoon.  It will be cool, with high temperatures in the area ranging from -5 to -10.

Manitoba

Heavy snow is expected in southern Manitoba, starting early Friday morning and continuing throughout the day.  This will be a disruptive snowfall, with weather watches and warnings.   Travel plans for Friday in southern Manitoba should be postponed.   As the map above shows, up to 30 cm of snow could fall in southern Manitoba along the Trans Canada highway, and in the city of Winnipeg.   The interlake could receive up to 20 cm of snow.    High temperatures won’t be far from zero, so this snow could have significant moisture content.  Heavy, wet snow will provide benefits to agriculture in the province’s most productive regions.

Saturday

Alberta

More beneficial snow is expected for southern and southwestern Alberta on Saturday.  A new impulse will spread snow across northwestern Montana and southern Alberta.  Of course, the snow will be accompanied by cool weather, with highs remaining near 0 at best.  Not a lot of snow can be expected in southern Alberta – 5 cm at the most west of highway 23.   East of there,  only 2-3 cm.   The heaviest snowfall amounts on Saturday in Alberta will happen in the foothills northwest of Calgary, and even though, snow totals could max out at only about 10 cm.   The snow may be welcome, but it’s not a drought-buster for the southwestern part of the province.

Saskatchewan

The snowstorm is over, but a few flurries may linger across the southern half of Saskatchewan as Arctic high pressure moves in, clearing out the northern sky.   The southern half of Saskatchewan can expect a cloudy day, with highs just below 0 across the province.

Manitoba

Saturday will be a day of cleaning up after Friday’s snowstorm in the south.   Significant snow is not expected anywhere in Manitoba on Saturday, and most of the province will be mainly sunny.   Clouds will persist in western Manitoba, from The Pas south to North Dakota.   Like the rest of the prairies, high temperatures in Manitoba will peak close to 0.

 

Sunday

With an Arctic high in place, centered over Saskatchewan, most of the prairies will be mainly sunny to partly cloudy on Sunday.   The circulation around the high may produce a few upslope snow flurries in southwestern Alberta,  and perhaps over the Cypress Hills, but accumulations will be minimal.   In fact, with temperatures expected to rise to about +5 in the area, there may not be a chance for any accumulation at all.   The Peace region of Alberta will be the warmest part of the prairies on Sunday, with highs from 5 to 10 degrees, while Saskatchewan and Manitoba shiver under the Arctic high, with temperatures in most areas remaining below the freezing point.

 

Event Forecast

Forecast for the SARDA Ag Research Trade Show (March 27-29) and Farm-Her Artisan Market (March 29) in Falher, Alberta

 

 

 

 

 

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