Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – A Wet Weather Pattern for the Prairies

The new, wetter weather pattern remains in place through the long weekend across the prairies.   And, there are indications the wet and cool conditions will, overall, persist through the rest of May.  This isn’t say there won’t be sunny days – there will.   However, the sunshine – and seeding – will be interrupted frequently by rain.  The map below is from an AI weather model, showing rainfall totals to the end of May.

The map shows significant rainfall across the prairies, especially in Alberta, southeastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba’s west of the Red River Valley.   In the Alberta foothills, the model is suggesting 90 mm of rain, most of which would fall on the last two days of the month.    This is not a forecast, it’s just a heads-up.   Longer range forecasts like this are bound to change, and this one will.  However,  the point of publishing this now is to allow for preparation in the case of heavy rainfall.

Thursday

Alberta

A north-south band of rain will cross Alberta from west to east during the day, and by the end of the day, it will fizzle out as it heads toward Saskatchewan.  The rain band will move through Alberta quite rapidly, so there won’t be much opportunity for significant accumulation.  Behind the band of rain, a north wind develops, and the sky tries to clear, as a ridge of high pressure begins to build in.    With the cool morning rain and the north wind, it will be a cool day, with highs in most of Alberta ranging from 10 to 15 degrees.

Saskatchewan

Seeding operations in  eastern Saskatchewan will again be disrupted by inclement weather.   A low pressure system west of Grand Forks, North Dakota will push rain into southeastern Saskatchewan.   The rainfall will be quite heavy in southeastern Saskatchewan, and rainfall east of Regina will continue through the day.  Localized thunderstorms are expected throughout the day, some of which could drop 80 to 100 mm of rain in concentrated areas.  West of the Queen City, it will be dry but cool with a north wind. Most of Saskatchewan will reach 10-15 degrees.   Along the Manitoba boundary, where it’s expected to rain, highs will be closer to 5.

Manitoba

A major rainstorm in North Dakota will produce rain across Manitoba during the day Thursday.   And in many areas, heavy rain is expected, and will continue for at least a couple of days.  This map shows rainfall totals as of early Saturday morning:

Much of the rain depicted above will fall Thursday and Friday in Manitoba.   Localized flooding can’t be ruled out, especially in areas where river levels are high due to snowmelt and runoff.  Localized heavy thunderstorms are expected over western Manitoba and the Interlake,.  Those storms could produce localized accumulations of 50 to 70 mm of rain in southwestern Manitoba. There is a chance Thursday’s highs will reach the high 20s in southeastern Manitoba, where the air is smoky due to a major forest fire near Lac do Bonnet.   Releif for that area arrives Friday as Thursday’s rain in western Manitoba slowly moves east.    It will be a cold day, with single digit highs in western and south central regions, due to the intense rainfall.

Friday

Alberta

The weather will be rather quiet in Alberta on Friday, with rain and snow in the mountains, and dry, mainly cloudy weather to the east.   Afternoon showers and storms are possible along the foothills, with light to moderate rain moving eastward into the evening.  Most of the evening rain will fall south of the Trans Canada Highway, with another area of showers developing near Red Deer.  There will be an opportunity for sunshine in southeastern Alberta on Friday, so temperatures there could climb to 20 degrees.   West of highway 2,  and north of the Trans Canada Highway, it will be cooler, with highs in the teens.

Saskatchewan

Wet weather continues in the early morning in southeastern Saskatchewan,  as the rainstorm slowly moves east.   By the end of the day, the rain will end,  but there will still be considerable cloud cover and a north wind.   The north wind affects all of Saskatchewan, keeping temperatures below average.   It’s unlikely in southeastern Sasktchewan that  conditions will be dry enough to resume seeding by the end of the day.   In southwestern Saskatchewan,  the sun should return in the afternoon.

Manitoba

The chart below shows the progress of rainfall from Thursday morning to Saturday afternoon.   In some areas, it may be sometime Sunday before seeding can resume:

And it will be cold,  with wintry conditions returning to much of Manitoba on Friday.    Check out the expected Friday night/Saturday morning temperatures in the chart below:

Saturday

Alberta

The May long weekend in Alberta lives up to its reputation as the wet weather pattern continues in southern Alberta on Saturday.  A weak low pressure system will form just north of Highway 3 near the Forestry Trunk Road,  producing rain for south central and central Alberta, along with the southeastern corner of the province near Medicine Hat.   There may be a few localized areas of convective rainfall or non severe thunderstorms along the central Alberta foothills, but otherwise, the rain will be light to moderate.   It will be cool, with afternoon temperatures across Alberta reaching the mid-teens.

Saskatchewan

With the exception of some topographically induced rain from Swift Current to the Cypress Hills, it will be a dry day in Saskatchewan.   A high pressure system near Churchill, Manitoba will produce a southeasterly wind across Saskatchewan, and most of the province will be clear to partly cloudy.   High temperatures will reach the low teens across the province, and the sun will have a chance to dry out fields left waterlogged by the Thursday and Friday rain.

Manitoba

After a few days of heavy rain, southern Manitoba and the Interlake begin to dry out.   Don’t be shocked to see some snowflakes mixed in with the departing rain before sunrise.  A High pressure system will build over northern Manitoba, clearing the sky across much of the province.   Southern regions may remain under cloud cover, due to evaporation of accumulated rainfall.   With the high to the north, and the lingering effects of the moisture, it will be a cold day, with single digit highs across the province.

Sunday

Alberta

There will be a brief break from the rainfall in southern and central Alberta Sunday morning, but it might be best not to make outdoor plans for the rest of the day.   By noon, a Low pressure system in Montana will spread its rain northward into southern Alberta.    During the afternoon, there will be significant rain south of the Trans Canada highway.   The rain will slowly fizzle as it moves north,  reaching Red Deer and Edmonton in the evening.    Prior to the arrival of the rain,  isolated showers are likely in central Alberta.    It all adds up to another wet day, and more delays in seeding.    High temperatures in Alberta are expected to reach the mid to high teens on Sunday.

Saskatchewan

Still under the influence of the Manitoba high, Saskatchewan will be dry on Sunday, with a southeasterly wind and a partly cloudy sky.   Because the southeasterly wind is drawing in cold air around what is essentially an Arctic high, it will be a chilly day despite a fair amount of sunshine.   Highs will be in the low to mid teens.

Manitoba

It will be a quiet day across Manitoba, with no significant precipitation due to the influence of the slow moving high in the northern part of the province.   It will be dry, but it will also be very cool, with highs reaching the low double digits at best.

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