Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – The planting window’s wide open

All across the prairies this week, planting operations will likely kick into a higher gear, with warm, dry weather in the forecast throughout Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba.    The map below shows accumulated precipitation up until Sunday evening.   The map is colourful enough,  but those colours represent very small amounts of rain:

 

The area in white in central Saskatchewan and East Central Alberta shows no rainfall at all this week.   Elsewhere, agricultural regions on the prairies can expect less only about 5 mm.

A closer look reveals dry conditions, and no interruptions to planting this week.    Below are several charts from SpotWX, communities chosen at random, with precipitation forecasts for this week circled in red.

 

Pincher Creek – After early Monday morning showers, no rainfall this week,  and very few clouds:

 

Brooks – Sunny until Thursday, then a few clouds, with a chance of a shower or thundershower Thursday afternoon:

 

 

Swift Current – Showers Monday morning, then either sunny or mainly sunny all week:

 

Wolseley –  Showers Monday, then partly cloudy and dry for the rest of the week:

 

Brandon – Partly cloudy and mainly dry all week, with a few sprinkles Monday night, and during the midday Friday and Sunday:

 

Sanford – Mainly sunny, with a chance of showers or thundershowers Friday morning:

 

 

Note that on most of the charts above, rainfall is expected to return early next week, along with cooler weather.    And that may very well be the end of this brief warm spell.   The warm weather at the beginning of May should not be seen as an indication of a hot, dry summer ahead.    Nor should it be an indication of a perfect growing season.   Yes, the warm, dry weather has opened up a huge window for planting, however, it’s only effective if it’s followed by sufficient moisture for germination.

While soil temperatures should be favourable for germination, the key to success lies with sufficient moisture, and there are concerns that the warmth may dry out the soil.   If that happens, it should be temporary, as there is every reason to believe there will be a well-timed increase in moisture in the second half of May and early June.

 

Monday

Alberta

Monday will be dry across most of Alberta, with some early morning showers in the northeastern part of the province, and in the southwest along the foothills and mountains from Bragg Creek south to Waterton.  Those showers will move west, guided by a cold front extending from central Saskatchewan to central Montana.   By noon, the showers should be to the south and east, and the rest of Alberta will remain dry for the rest of the day.

The previously mentioned cold front went through most of Alberta Sunday, and temperatures were below average.   Monday, there’s a bit of a rebound with highs of 15 to 20 north of Highway 3 and east of highway 2.   It will be cooler west of Highway 2, with highs of 10-15 in the foothills, and across most of the rest of the province.

Saskatchewan

As a cold front moves across Saskatchewan, the atmosphere will become unstable, and there will be showers, possibly thunderstorms.   The moisture will accompany the front as it tracks east, starting in southwest Saskatchewan.   The greatest chance for thunderstorms will be in the morning, as the system will weaken as it takes its eastward march across southern Saskatchewan.    Western regions can expect more than 5 mm of rain.   Eastern regions will get less than 5.

Should thunderstorms develop, localized areas could get higher amounts of rainfall, but the storms will pass by quickly.    On the eastern side of the front, it will be quite hot, and highs near 30 are possible in the extreme southeast.   Elsewhere, there will be relief from the heat. As the front moves through, the hot air will be flushed out, and afternoon temperatures will end up in the high teens and low 20s across most of the province.

Manitoba

It’ll be another hot day in southern Manitoba, as daytime highs climb toward 30 degrees, and in some areas, may exceed 30.     This is the last hot day, however,  as a cold front coming in from Saskatchewan will bring much cooler air to the region.   Expect highs to drop from the high 20s on Monday to the high teens on Tuesday.    The rain that accompanied the cold front through Saskatchewan will fizzle out in Manitoba, though showers can’t be ruled out in the afternoon across the lakes, near Dauphin, and in southwestern Manitoba south of the Trans Canada Highway.

 

Tuesday

 

Alberta and Saskatchewan

A southerly wind, combined with an upper ridge of high pressure will keep both provinces dry on Tuesday.   Saskatchewan and Alberta will be mainly sunny, with some cloud in northwestern Alberta and southeastern Saskatchewan during the afternoon.    High temperatures across both provinces will peak in the high teens, with low 20s possible in the northern half of Alberta.

 

Manitoba

The cold front continues its journey across Manitoba, and a few isolated showers across central and southern regions can’t be ruled out.   The rainfall is not expected to be widespread, and the chance for any meaningful accumulation is slim.  By late afternoon, the showers are gone, and rain ends across the province.   Southwestern Manitoba will remain under cloud cover for the afternoon, with clearing happening elsewhere.   the cold front will bring cooler weather.   In the southwest, beneath the clouds, afternoon temperatures will be in the low teens, and east of Portage, highs will range from 15 to 20.   It’s mild, but a ten degree drop compared to the previous day.

 

Wednesday

Alberta

The day begins with a southerly wind and dry weather.   However, a Low pressure system in southeastern Yukon will change Alberta’s weather later in the day.   In the morning, a cold front from that low will stretch across central BC in a north-south line, along which there will be rain,  and snow at higher elevations.   As the day goes on, that band of rain moves east, as the Low brings the cold front into northwestern Alberta.   By afternoon, the front will bring rain to north central regions of the province.   South of the front, the wind shifts to the southwest from Edmonton to the southern border.   In that area, it will remain sunny and dry.

Before the front, temperatures in northern Alberta could get as warm as 20 to 25 degrees.  After the front passes, those temperatures will drop by about 10 degrees.    In the south, which will not see the front Wednesday afternoon, afternoon highs could get very close to 30 east of Calgary, and in the mid twenties elsewhere.

Saskatchewan

It will be a sunny, hot day in Saskatchewan, with a southerly wind, and highs of 25-30 in central regions.   Elsewhere it will be just a few degrees cooler.   Rainfall is  not expected in Saskatchewan Wednesday, so the planting window remains wide open.

Manitoba

Like Saskatchewan, Manitoba will have a sunny Wednesday, with a southerly wind.   Unlike Saskatchewan, temperatures wont’ be quite as torrid.   In most of southern Manitoba, highs will reach the high teens or low 20s (see the charts for Brandon and Sanford above).    Rainfall is not expected anywhere in Manitoba Wednesday.

 

Thursday

Spring runoff has begun, with perfect timing, as farmers carry on with seeding operations across the prairies.   To the west, the rivers and streams are starting to fill up, as some of the lower elevation snow in the Rockies begins to melt.    This image of Spring Creek in Canmore was taken earlier this week.   Not too long ago, water levels in this and other streams in the area were quite low.   Now the levels are rising, as the water heads downstream toward prairie farms and pastures.

Alberta

North of Canmore, near Jasper, there  was some fresh snow on the ground Thursday morning:

 

 

The image was captured the morning of May 8,  by the 511alberta camera on  Highway 16 just east of the Jasper Park gates.  A shortwave trough is generating  rain as it moves to the northeast through  central Alberta, with snow in the higher elevations.    The wind associated with this system is gusty.   Otherwise, it will be another dry day in Alberta, with planting continuing unabated in the agricultural regions of central and southern Alberta.   In central and northern Alberta, expect afternoon temperatures in the teens.   In the south, expect high temperatures in the high teens or low twenties.

Saskatchewan

It will be a hot day in southern Saskatchewan, with temperatures in the 25 to 30 degree range. Central regions will be about five degrees cooler.    Communities in far southeastern Saskatchewan, including Oxbow and Estevan,  have a chance at reaching 30 degrees Thursday.  A low pressure system travelling from east central Saskatchewan to northern Manitoba will bring some rain to the forests of central and northern Saskatchewan as it passes through during the day.

The low will drag a cold front through central Saskatchewan, accounting for the slight temperature difference between north and south.   The front will also produce a strong wind through central Saskatchewan, and there will be brisk westerlies in the south.    Agricultural regions will miss out on the moisture, ensuring yet another day of uninterrupted planting.

Manitoba

Thursday will be hot.     A Low pressure system moving into northern Manitoba from central Saskatchewan will bring rain to the northern part of the province, far from the fields and pastures to the south.    The south is expected to stay dry overall, however, the atmosphere in west central Manitoba will be unstable, and there is a possibility of scattered showers and thundershowers in the afternoon.   If they develop, those showers and storms will track eastward, then fizzle in the evening, when heating from the sun dies down.  Highs across central and southern Manitoba are easily expected to reach the mid to high 20s.

 

Friday

Alberta and Saskatchewan

As high pressure builds over Alberta and Saskatchewan, both provinces will experience another sunny, and warm day.   No significant weather is expected in Alberta or Sasaktchewan Thursday, so there will be no interruptions to planting.  High temperatures in southern regions should reach the low 20s, with the possibility of high 20s south of highway 3 between Lethbridge and Medicine Hat.

Manitoba

Rain will fall in northern Manitoba Friday, and the south will be fairly active as well, as the remnants of a cold front move across the region.   Expect showers in the southern interlake before sunrise, then spreading across southern Manitoba.   By breakfast time, the showers will be done, and the rest of the day will be dry.   Rainfall amounts will be quite light, and there will be no interruption to seeding.   In southern Manitoba, rain is not needed.  While the topsoil may be dry, there is plenty of soil moisture just a few cm below the surface.  Most of southern and western Manitoba will achieve highs from 15 to 20 degrees.   It will be cooler to the north.

 

Saturday

Alberta

A low pressure system will form in southern Alberta Friday, and may generate enough instability for afternoon showers or thundershowers in the southeastern corner of the province.   Southern and Central Alberta will see a mix of sun and cloud.   The Low will push some hot air toward our neighbors in Saskatchewan, but Alberta will be on the cool side of the low.   If you could call it cool.  Temperatures are still expected to reach the high  20s south and east of Calgary, with highs in the teens north of Calgary to the NWT boundary.

Saskatchewan

Circulation in front of a southern Alberta low will push hot air into southern Saskatchewan Saturday.   South of the Trans Canada Highway, high temperatures will reach the low 30s.   North of the highway,  expect temperatures in the high 20s.    The very warm air extends as far north as Saskatoon.   From there toward the NWT boundary, it will still be warmer than average, with highs int he mid teens.   Humidity levels are low, and if the heat does generate afternoon thunderstorms, they would likely produce little rainfall.   This, combined with a brisk westerly wind, will enhance the wildfire danger in southern Saskatchewan.

Manitoba

Like Saskatchewan, it will be a hot day in southern Manitoba, where temperatures will reach the high 20s and low 30s.   The hot air is coming in a southerly push in front of a Low pressure system in southern Alberta.   Instability due to the heat may kick off afternoon showers and storms in western Manitoba Saturday.   Rainfall amounts will be light, but lightning will cause a pause in planting and seeding.   There is a chance these showers and storms could continue through to early Sunday morning, when the Alberta low tracks across Saskatchewan

 

Sunday

Alberta

Warm, dry weather continues Sunday in Alberta, though it may cool down somewhat.  The Low pressure system that developed over southern Alberta Saturday moves to Saskatchewan Sunday, and a cold front behind it drops Alberta’s high temperatures to the teens.   There is a chance of late day instability over the foothills, and there is the possibility of afternoon showers or weak thunderstorms in the area.   Those showers and storms are not expected to drift east, so the rest of the province stays dry.

Saskatchewan

As a low pressure system moves toward the Manitoba boundary during the day, the flow of hot air shifts eastward, and a weak cold front passes through the province.   In this case, there isn’t much cold associated with the cold front.   Temperatures will dip a bit across southern Saskatchewan.   Areas that reached the 30s on Saturday will still get to the high 20s on Sunday.   The best chance of  precipitation happens in the early morning as the Low traverses southern Saskatchewan.  By afternoon, there will no longer be a rain threat to agricultural regions of Saskatchewan, though showers are still likely over the northern forests.

Manitoba

It’s another hot day in southern Manitoba.  South of the lakes, highs of 30 or warmer will be widespread.   Don’t be too surprised if temperatures reach the mid 30s at the North Dakota border south of Altona.   This extraordinary heat is likely to kick off some scattered thunderstorms across southern Manitoba Sunday afternoon.  A cold front will then follow through the area Sunday night and Monday morning, kicking off a few more showers from the southern Interlake to the US border.

 

 

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