Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Sunshine with an ever-present possibility of afternoon showers and storms.

Overview

The upper low that has been grinding slowly southeastward from Alberta through the week is finally on its way out. It leaves behind scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder Thursday, particularly near the Saskatchewan border, but the atmosphere lacks the organization to produce anything severe. While you may see lightning and brief heavy rain, significant hail or damaging winds are not expected. Friday clears out, and the weekend brings a genuine warmup that the prairies have been overdue for. Saskatchewan and Manitoba in particular are poised to transition into a significantly warmer pattern after an extended stretch of cooler than average conditions, with weekend highs pushing into the mid-to-upper 20s in many areas.

From eastern Alberta to southern Manitoba, all three  prairie provinces will experience strong wind Thursday, as the map below shows:

 

We’re not even through  May, and Alberta has already had seven tornadoes.   These were landspout tornadoes, and caused no significant damage.  No one was hurt.  With a landspout, the rotation originates near the ground and spins up.  When a connection is made with a storm cloud aloft, it’s considered a tornado.   With a conventional tornado, the rotation begins in a storm cloud, and works its way down to the ground.  Landspouts have happened across all of time, but the term itself was coined fairly recently, in 1985.  The landspouts happened in central Alberta on May 17 and 18:

 

 

 

Thursday

Peace Region

A departing upper low keeps cloud cover up through the day, but precipitation should be limited here compared to areas further east and south. Overnight lows near 9 represent a meaningful improvement over earlier in the week, and frost is not a concern Thursday night. If your fields are fit, Thursday is a workable day in the Peace. Soil moisture is generally adequate across the region following recent precipitation, so conditions should be reasonable for seeding operations that were not delayed by excess water.

Alberta

The upper low continues to track slowly southeast Thursday, maintaining widespread showers, particularly across central Alberta and areas approaching the Saskatchewan boundary. Further to the west, it will be a mainly sunny day, with highs in the high teens.  The thunderstorm risk is real Thursday afternoon and evening near the Alberta-Saskatchewan boundary, where instability will be highest ahead of the departing system. These storms should be non-severe given limited shear and modest instability, but localized heavy rain is possible. Southern Alberta producers near the border area should watch conditions through the afternoon. Away from that zone, Thursday is a legitimate day for working the fields for most of central and southern Alberta.

Saskatchewan

The departing low brings the most impact to Saskatchewan on Thursday. Scattered showers and a few afternoon thunderstorms are possible, especially across the central and southern parts of the province. Highs of 18 to 20 degrees can be expected across central and southern Saskatchewan.  And, overnight lows will be well above freezing.  No frost risk.  The thunderstorms are not a severe threat, but they can deliver enough rain in a short period to wet down fields that were finally getting to be workable.

With the province sitting at 16% seeded against a 28% five-year average, capturing Thursday morning hours matters. Note that Environment Canada issued a special weather statement Wednesday for funnel cloud potential in southern Saskatchewan, with weak landspout tornadoes possible under rapidly growing clouds. That threat diminishes Thursday, but keep an eye on the sky during any afternoon storm development.

Manitoba  A warm front pushing through southern Manitoba serves as the trigger for scattered showers and possible thunderstorms, particularly through the morning and midday hours. The instability is limited and nothing severe is expected, but rain amounts could be locally significant in spots. Western Manitoba, which received the most precipitation last weekend, may see additional delays in field-drying. Eastern Manitoba should be watching conditions carefully Thursday, as cumulative moisture is becoming a factor for any producers trying to establish remaining acres. Frost is off the table Thursday night province-wide.

 

Friday

Peace Region

Friday brings sunshine and a highs in the low 20s across the region.  And, with lows near 8, there is no risk of frost.  This is the best field day of the week for the Peace.  The sun will shine, and the wind will be manageable.  There may be a few midday showers south of the Peace Region, but are expected to stay to the south.   So,  push your seeding operations hard on Friday. Conditions this good in the Peace in mid-May are worth taking full advantage of.

Alberta

The upper level system is gone and Friday delivers across Alberta.  Afternoon highs across Alberta will reach the low 20s, and overnight lows will be well above the frost level.  Surface high pressure combined with upper-level ridging builds in, bringing plenty of sunshine and increasingly warm temperatures. This is a strong field day for virtually all of Alberta. Soil temperatures should be responding well to three days of above-normal highs.

Canola that needs 10°C at 2-5cm depth to germinate reliably should be hitting that threshold across central and southern areas. If you have acres left to seed, Friday is a day to run long hours.  That said, in the south, some moderate instability could produce some scattered showers between the foothills and highway 2.  The threat isn’t strong enough to change plans, but keep an eye out for developing clouds and showers.

Saskatchewan

Across Saskatchewan, highs will reach the high teens…close to 20 degrees.  A chance of some showers remains possible across eastern Saskatchewan as a weak disturbance pushes through ahead of the building upper ridge, but this should be light and brief.  The greatest rain threat is right along the Manitoba boundary.   Western Saskatchewan should see a clean field day.  Highs could reach the mid 20s by the end of the weekend and into early next week, so Friday begins a stretch that could allow farmers to make meaningful progress as they try to catch up after lost seeding opportunities earlier  in the spring.

Manitoba

Manitoba’s warmup is underway. A chance of showers across Manitoba on Friday as a weak disturbance moves through ahead of the building ridge is possible, but the overall trend is strongly toward improving conditions.  The wet weather threat is highest along the Saskatchewan boundary.  Central and eastern areas will vary based on how wet Thursday’s rain left things, but lighter soils should be approaching workable by Friday.

 

Saturday

Peace Region

Highs will be close to 20 Saturday under a mix of sun and cloud with an overnight low of 5.  Conditions remain workable but cool nights warrant attention if you have canola in early emergence. No frost is expected at these lows, but sensitive crops in low-lying areas could see some stress.

Alberta

Saturday is a warm day across Alberta, with highs in the low to mid 20s.   Saturday is the warmest and clearest day of the stretch for most of Alberta. A weak area of low pressure is forecast to develop over central Alberta before lifting quickly northeastward, bringing a mix of sun and cloud with the chance of a few isolated showers. This system should have minimal agricultural impact, but central Alberta producers should be aware that a brief shower or two is possible. Southern Alberta stays largely dry. Early next week, another low is expected to push into southern Alberta bringing showers and thundershowers, so treat Saturday as a firm window before conditions become unsettled again.

Saskatchewan

Daytime highs across much of the province should rise comfortably into the mid-to-upper twenties, with some southern areas approaching the upper end of that range. Overnight lows are also becoming milder, a sign the warmer air mass is establishing itself. This is the field window Saskatchewan producers have been waiting for all spring. The southwest and southeast, furthest ahead in seeding progress, should be able to push hard. The northeast and east-central remain behind, and wet soils there need more time regardless of the warmth, but Saturday gives lighter land the best opportunity so far this year.

Manitoba

A weak low lifting northeastward out of the United States spreads clouds and scattered showers into the region through Saturday.  Afternoon highs will reach the high teens or low 20s. Western Manitoba should largely escape the wet weather, but central and eastern areas could see some shower activity through the day. Work around the showers where you can and prioritize your lighter, better-drained fields. Sunday clears things out fully and the real warmup accelerates from there.

 

Sunday

Peace Region

Sunday brings another day where temperatures climb close to 20 degrees.  The two-day stretch of workable conditions through the weekend gives Peace Region producers a genuine opportunity to make progress. Overnight lows dipping to 4ish  are not a frost concern for established crops, but keep an eye on any emerged canola in low spots.

Alberta

Sunday’s a bit cooler again, with highs dropping back to the high teens.   Sunday remains a strong field day across most of Alberta before the pattern turns unsettled again early next week.  Again, there is a chance of scattered afternoon showers in southern Alberta, between highway 2 and the foothills.  Canola seeded earlier in the week will be benefiting from the accumulated warmth, and soil temperatures across central and southern areas should be well above the 10 degree threshold needed for reliable germination.

Saskatchewan

Saskatoon climbs to nearly 30 degrees Sunday under a sunny sky.  The heat could lead to some afternoon instability, with the possibility of a weak low forming just west of Saskatoon.   This  could produce some scattered showers or thundershowers in central and southeastern Saskatchewan.  Aloft, the upper ridge is firmly in place and the warmth is widespread.  If you have acres left to seed  your fields are fit,  and showers stay away, Sunday is the day to run from first light to last. The extended warm stretch rolling into next week means soil temperatures will climb quickly, which benefits germination for crops already in the ground.

Manitoba

Winnipeg reaches 24°C Sunday under sunshine with an overnight low of 14°C. The Saturday shower system exits cleanly but convective showers and thundershowers remain possible Sunday afternoon.  The showers will be isolated, and not widespread.  Western and central Manitoba should see good field conditions through the day. Eastern Manitoba will depend on how much rain Saturday delivered, but even heavier soils should be shedding moisture quickly in the warmth and sunshine.

Winnipeg’s extended forecast shows 32 degrees Monday and 35 on Tuesday, so Sunday is the beginning of the warmest stretch of spring yet for the province. Get your remaining seeding acres done where soils are fit. The heat that follows early next week will push soil temperatures up fast, which is positive for germination, but any crops seeded into dry surface soil will need moisture to establish properly as that heat builds.

EVENT FORECASTS

Red  Deer Pro Rodeo:  Westerner Park, Red Deer, May 21 to May  23

May 21:  Mainly sunny, increasing afternoon cloud, light wind, high 17

May 22:  Partly to mostly cloudy, chance of afternoon and evening showers or thundershowers, high 19

May 23:  Mainly sunny, high 23

 

Rainmaker Rodeo: Riel Recreation Park,  St. Albert, Alberta, May 23 to May 24

May 23:  Mainly sunny, moderate wind, chance of an evening shower, high 24

May 24: Increasing cloud, afternoon showers, high 18

 

Cardston Agriculture Day:  Cardston Agridome, May 23

May 23:  Mainly sunny, moderate SW wind, high 21

 

 

COMPARE:  Prairie Weather  This Week – May 18