Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Other than a few minor disturbances, perfect seeding weather continues.
Seeding is running on very different timelines depending on where you farm. Alberta is largely in good shape, with decent fieldwork days stacking up under a ridge of high pressure anchored along the B.C. coast. Saskatchewan is catching up, but has a significant storm to deal with on Friday. Manitoba has been the tough draw so far this week, stuck under the influence of a Hudson Bay vortex, though relief is coming.
Manitoba is the first prairie province to issue a crop report this season. And, not surprisingly, it shows seeding is running behind its average pace so far, with only 2% of the seeding done, compared to 8% this time last year:
In Manitoba, planting is underway for spring wheat, peas, and corn.
The map below shows precipitation expected over the weekend. Most agricultural areas remain bone dry, though parts of Saskatchewan will get some rain, and there will be some moisture for parts of Alberta and southwestern Manitoba as well:
Courtesy: MSC AniMET
While the map is somewhat colourful, it may be a bit misleading. The legend shows that those areas that do get rain will receive 5 mm or less over a period of three days. It’s not much, and any interruptions to seeding will be brief and minimal.
The broad setup: upper ridging over the western Prairies is pushing milder, drier air into Alberta and parts of Saskatchewan. A large area of low pressure over Hudson Bay has been feeding clouds and unseasonably cool air into Manitoba. That low is slowly weakening and drifting east, which should allow some warmth and sun to build into the eastern Prairies through the weekend.
Thursday
Peace Region
A weak trough is expected to develop over west-central Alberta today and could touch the southern parts of the Peace Region with isolated showers and an isolated thunderstorm through the afternoon and evening. The main concern with any storm that fires today is wind. Gusts of 60 to 70 km/h are possible with any convective cell that develops.
Temperatures will reach the low to mid-teens, with overnight lows near 1°C. Frost is possible in low-lying areas before Friday morning, so if you have any tender seedlings in the ground, pay attention. Winds will be westerly at 20 to 40 km/h through the day, settling down overnight.
Alberta
Upper ridging continues to dominate across most of the province. Conditions across central and northern Alberta start partly cloudy with mild temperatures climbing into the upper teens to around 20 degrees. Southern areas near the foothills face a slight shower risk this afternoon, also tied to that weak trough development, with gusty winds the primary concern. Field conditions are generally favourable across the bulk of the province. If you’re still waiting for soils to firm up after recent precipitation, today looks like a good push day for most of central Alberta.
Saskatchewan
The province is caught between the mild push from the west and the cool northerly flow lingering over Manitoba. Saskatoon can expect an overcast start, reaching a high around 20 degrees today – slightly above the seasonal average. Temperatures across much of the province will trend mild but with a notable coolness to the north and east. Overnight lows will drop to near 3°C, so frost risk is real mainly in northern areas. Seeding operations: conditions are workable across most of the province today. Use the day well – Friday is a different story entirely.
Manitoba
The Hudson Bay vortex has had a firm grip on your weather this week, and Thursday will be another colder-than-average day. For example, Winnipeg will reach about 11 degrees under a mainly sunny sky – genuinely cooler than average for early May, when you’d normally be looking for highs closer to 17 or 18. Overnight lows will dip to around -1, and with a clear sky, a light frost is quite possible.
Northern Manitoba is still seeing periods of light snow from the Arctic, with no meaningful accumulation expected, but enough to keep the north locked in late-season conditions. The mixed snow-to-rain transition zone sits roughly through central Manitoba.
Limited seeding is practical in southern Manitoba for farms that have fit soils, but keep an eye on overnight temperatures.
Friday
Peace Region
Another round of light showers moves through the northern parts of the Peace Region on Friday, this time from a new weak system sliding over the ridge from the northwest. Any precipitation will be light. Highs around 11, overnight lows near 1. Winds will turn north at 20 gusting to 40 km/h through the afternoon.
Peace River’s forecast shows a 30 percent chance of showers and wind gusting to 40 km/h on Friday, with a low of 1 overnight. Patchy frost is possible. Friday is a marginal seeding day at best. If the ground is fit and you can get ahead of the shower and wind timing, early morning may offer a window.
Alberta
Southern and central Alberta sees another mild day with highs in the mid-to-upper teens. No significant precipitation is expected for most of the province on Friday. The western ridge is asserting itself and should deliver another mostly usable day for seeding across most of Alberta. Overnight temperatures will fall to around 2 to 4 degrees for central regions. Frost watch conditions overnight are possible in sheltered low spots, particularly north of the Yellowhead Highway.
Saskatchewan
Friday is a day to plan carefully.
A low-pressure system will push through central and southeast Saskatchewan through the day, bringing an organized area of showers. As the system moves southeast through the afternoon, conditions deteriorate. Thunder showers become possible. However, the primary threat with these storms is wind. The dry air in the low levels means any thunder shower that fires will produce a strong downdraft, and wind gusts of 70 to 80 km/h are possible with passing cells. It’s the kind of wind that can drive soil erosion on freshly worked or seeded ground. Before the front passes and the storms fire up, temperatures are likely to reach the high teens across southern Saskatchewan, before cooling off rapidly. Northern Saskatchewan sees lighter, more scattered activity but should still plan for wind. If you’re running air seeders, strong gusty winds and possible downpours will shut down operations during the worst of it.
Manitoba
The eastern trough is slowly losing its grip, and Friday starts the transition. And by that, we mean the long-awaited arrival of warmer spring air. Temperatures in the mid-teens across southern Manitoba on Friday will be a meaningful improvement over Thursday. The overnight low is still cold enough for frost, so protect any germinated seed if soil temps allow. Central Manitoba will see lingering cloud as the transition zone between the cold northern air and the warming south takes time to sort out. No significant precipitation is expected across southern Manitoba on Friday.
This change in the weather pattern will give Manitoba farmers a chance to catch up on their seeding as soils should be firming up and conditions becoming more favourable heading into the weekend.
Saturday
Peace Region
The western ridge pushes farther east on Saturday, and the Peace Region benefits. Skies will clear, and temperatures will climb back toward 14 to 17 degrees. Nights remain chilly, though, with overnight lows dropping to 0 in some areas. A frost risk remains, but daytime conditions look workable. This is a recovery day after Friday’s disturbance. If soils are not too wet from Friday’s showers, Saturday afternoon could be a good push.
Alberta
A ridge building into the western Prairies is expected to bring above-average temperatures and drier-than-normal conditions that will help advance seeding progress. Saturday is part of that trend. Most of Alberta looks at sunny to mainly sunny skies, temperatures in the upper teens to near 20, and light wind. This is about as good as it gets for seeding conditions. Overnight lows near 3 to 5 for central Alberta. In western Alberta areas where Friday’s systems dropped any meaningful moisture, Saturday’s sun will help soils recover quickly. Plan for a full working day.
Saskatchewan
The low moves through and clears out. Saturday brings sunny conditions and a high in the mid-teens for southern and central Saskatchewan. However, frost remains a possibility Saturday night with clear skies and calm winds, so keep that in mind if you have canola in the ground. The wind gusts from Friday should ease considerably. Saturday looks like a good recovery and seeding day across most of the province if Friday’s rains were not excessive.
Manitoba
While the trend is toward warmer weather for Manitoba, Saturday could remain rather cool, with highs in the low double digits under a sunny sky. Overnight lows will dip a bit below freezing, so frost is likely Saturday night across much of southern Manitoba. Overall, though, the broader improvement trend across Manitoba is real and continuing. Soil temperatures are still running below seasonal in many areas after the prolonged cool stretch, but the sunny days should start to change that. Brandon and points south will see the most benefit this weekend.
Sunday
Peace Region
Sunday continues mild and mostly sunny, with highs reaching the high teens. Long-term outlooks show temperatures climbing into the low 20s by mid-week, which would be ideal for seeding completion and early establishment. The atmosphere will destabilize a bit on Sunday, opening up the chance for convective showers or thundershowers. That is more likely to occur north of the Peace Region; however, the sky will bear watching in the afternoon.
Alberta
Another good seeding day across most of the province. Afternoon showers and possibly thundershowers are possible in north-central Alberta, north of the Yellowhead highway. Otherwise, expect a dry day with no significant weather in central and southern Alberta. Highs will reach the high teens and low twenties, and it will be mild enough overnight to avoid frost. There is a low-confidence chance of a weak system clipping northern and central regions early next week, potentially bringing a few scattered showers, but confidence in that system is low enough that it shouldn’t change your planning at this point. Check back here at Rural Roots Canada Monday morning for an update.
Saskatchewan
Sunday brings continued improvement. Sunny to partly cloudy with highs near 20 in Regina and warmer in the southwest. Overnight lows in the 5 to 10 degree range, which is much more comfortable than what you’ve seen overnight earlier in the week. A return to near-seasonal temperatures is arriving. The broader May outlook suggests the eastern trough will begin to break down, which would allow milder air to push into the central and eastern Prairies. Use this weekend window. Conditions across most of Saskatchewan look favourable for seeding Sunday, and the trend continues to improve heading into next week.
Manitoba
Manitoba’s slow climb toward spring weather continues. The worst of the cool pattern does appear to be breaking down.
Southern Manitoba should see reasonable seeding conditions on Sunday, especially by afternoon. Watch the overnight lows early in the week — near or just-above-zero temperatures will remain possible until the warmer pattern is better established.
