Prairie Weather This Week – Midweek Update Nov 13 |

Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Cooler, but still no major snow for prairie agricultural areas

A cooling trend can be expected, going into the weekend across the Canadian prairies. It will be brief, as we’re seeing a return to warmer weather early next week. High pressure continues to deflect storms to the north, so there will be plenty of snow in the northern prairies, while the south stays unfortunately dry.

Creating a weather forecast always begins with a look at current conditions, so here’s a surface analysis map from early Thursday morning. Note the Low developing in the BC Peace region:

That low will be the main weather maker for the next few days. Snow will be limited to the mountains and the northern prairies. Also note the dashed line in southern Alberta. That’s a lee trough of low pressure, generating serious wind. The Waterton area is under a wind warning as of Thursday morning, and a snowfall warning is in place for Highway 93. Updated watches and warnings can be found here.

Such chinook winds bring warm air to the southern prairies, especially on the western side. The animated map below shows, not temperatures, but temperature anomalies. So, if you see a “2” on the map, it means a temperature that is 2 degrees above average. “-2” would mean two degrees below average. Watch the animation, and you’ll see some extraordinarily warm air moving across the southern prairies early in the period. Toward the end of the animation, you see an invasion of colder than average air on the weekend.

Thursday

Alberta

As mentioned above, the main focus Thursday is a low-pressure system moving through the Northwest, and some serious wind in the South. In northwestern Alberta, expect snow, with perhaps freezing rain earlier in the day in the Grande Prairie area. 15 to 30 cm of snow can be expected in the mountain parks, making for tough travel conditions. And in the south, strong wind, with gusts near 100 km/h can be expected near Claresholm and Waterton. As the map below shows, the windy conditions will expand across southern Alberta during the day, reaching southwestern Saskatchewan:

While in far northern Alberta, temperatures will remain below zero, in central and southern regions it will be warm. Temperatures will still be mild, pushing up to 5-10°C, and maybe even into the mid-teens in the far south.

Saskatchewan

Snow spreads in Thursday afternoon and will intensify in the evening, with 10-20 cm expected in the far north (Stoney Rapids, Key Lake, etc.). Freezing rain can’t be ruled out along the southern edge of the precipitation. It’s a different story – almost a different season – in southern Saskatchewan, where it will be a quiet, mild day. As the map above shows, parts of southern Saskatchewan could become a bit breezy, thanks to the circulation around an Alberta low. Anywhere south of Saskatoon will be warmer than the melting point, with temperatures in the low to mid teens possible in southwestern Saskatchewan. In the north, it will be a more typical sub-zero, snowy day.

Manitoba

Significant weather is not expected in Manitoba today. The entire province will stay dry, under the influence of a light northwest wind. North of Thompson, it will be cloudy, and to the south, it will be a sunny day. In the southern half of the province, highs should reach 0 to 5 degrees. In the north, a bit cooler, with highs between 0 and -5.

Friday

Alberta

As the above noted low moves south along the foothills, then to the northeast, mild Pacific air will follow. Temperatures in southern Alberta will continue to be unseasonably warm, still generally in the 5 to 10 degree range. Expect a bit of snow in central and southern Alberta early in the day. Afterward, the sky should gradually start to clear in the West as a high pressure ridge begins to build in. The snow is associated with a cold front, which will also generate a cool northwesterly wind as it blows through in the first half of the day. Snow accumulations will be minor, less than 5 cm, and most of that snow will accumulate south of Highway 3. With the warm weather in the south, accumulated snow could disappear rather quickly. Northern and central Alberta won’t be quite as warm, with highs near or just below the freezing point.

Saskatchewan

Snow continues in the far north through morning, easing by afternoon. In the rest of the province, get ready for a big temperature spike. It will be dry, with a building ridge lifting temperatures into the low to mid-teens across southern zones. Those highs will occur in the early afternoon, with temperatures dropping toward late afternoon, before sunset. Light showers or light flurries can’t be ruled out along the Trans Canada highway west of Moose Jaw in the late afternoon, as a weakening cold front passes through. While the south gets a spike in temperatures, it will be cooler in central and northern regions, with highs near zero, give or take a few degrees.

Manitoba

The low that developed in Alberta and passed through Saskatchewan moves into northern Manitoba early, bringing significant snowfall (10 cm, with localized areas possibly seeing up to 25 cm of heavy, wet snow) and a risk of light freezing rain. The heaviest snow can be expected near Lynn Lake, Thompson, and Tadoule Lake. Prepare for transportation delays in the north. Southern Manitoba, particularly on the western side. will catch some of the warmer air. Highs could hit 15 to 20 degrees in that area, with above average temperatures in the rest of the province as well. Highs of 5 to 15 can be expected as far north as the northern tip of the lakes. Beyond that, highs will be near zero.

Saturday

Alberta

As a ridge of high pressure continues to rebuild, Alberta will be calm, but cooler. Highs in the north will be near 0, and around 4-8 degrees in the south. Even warmer weather is expected in southeastern Alberta, east of Highway 2, and south of Highway 1. Temperatures there are likely to reach the mid teens. Expect bright sunshine in the southern and central regions. To the north, it will be cloudier. A low will form in the afternoon in the Peace Region, and will generate some light snow for northwestern Alberta in the second half of the day.

Saskatchewan

Post frontal chill sets in across the east and north as the Manitoba system exits. Expect brisk northeasterly winds and cooler temperatures, highs between -2 and +2°C, especially from Prince Albert eastward. Southern regions stay near seasonal, around 3–5°C, with generally light winds. If the southwestern corner of the province can catch some of Alberta’s mild air, temperatures in the area may climb into double digits.

Manitoba

Northern areas dig out from Friday’s snow. Early in the day, there may be even more snow, but it will taper off as the system exits to the northeast. Winds ease but temperatures drop quickly under clearing skies. Highs hover near freezing or slightly above; slightly below freezing to the north. Interlake and southern farm regions turn cooler too, but with dry air and sunshine.

Sunday

Alberta

High pressure dominates, bringing clear skies and light breezes. It’s a different story for northwestern Alberta. A warm front from a Low in central BC will push snow into the Peace region and north into the Territories. The snow could be heavy and wet, as highs will be close to zero. Travel will likely be disrupted. Though most of the snow is expected west of Highway 35, travelers should check highway and weather conditions before heading out. Elsewhere, as mentioned, it will be mainly sunny. South of Edmonton, expect highs in the 5-15 degree range., with a southeast wind.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

The cooler, stable conditions persist, with highs still in that -2 to +2°C range in Manitoba. Expect partly cloudy skies and no significant precipitation—just a chilly, quiet end to the weekend. It will be somewhat warmer in Saskatchewan, with highs as warm as 10 degrees in the south and west. Elsewhere, highs will be similar to those in Manitoba, much closer to 0.