Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Very mild Halloween, and November starts warm. Record highs are possible!
In the coming days, we’ll be watching for record high temperaturs in southeastern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan, thanks to an Alberta clipper. The clipper will also provide rain to parts of the prairies over the weekend. The main issue for many, though, could be the wind. A strong westerly flow will develop, and windy condtions will continue across the southern prairies, especially in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Watch for wind warnings to be issued frequently over the next few days.
There are a few other changes in this update. Snow that was expected to be confined to the northern prairies is sneaking into central and southern Saskatchewan Thursday, ahead of the weekend surge of warm air. Precipitation amounts will be minimal.
Day to day, it looks this way:
Thursday
Alberta
With another big low moving into the Gulf of Alaska, pumpng up a ridge of high pressure over Alberta and Saskachewnm Alberta can expect windy, dry, and mainly sunny conditions Thursday. Some areas will be blanketed by morning fog, which should dissipate two or three hours after sunrise. Other than that, no significant weather is expected Thursday in Alberta. 5-10 degree highs can be expected in the sunshine anywhere in Alberta east of the Rockies.
Saskatchewan
The morning begins with a low in central Saskatchewan that will produce rain and snow in central and southeastern regions, with light snow in the northwest. The system is quite weak, and will produce only about 5 mm of preciitation. During the day, the low will move east, reaching Brandon by early evening. As the low moves out of Saskatchewan, it will take the rain and snow with it. We can expect the precipitation to taper off during the day. followed by a slowly clearing sky in southwestern Saskatchewan. With the cloud cover and precipitation, it will be a cool day, with highs of 0-5 across the province. The map below shows areas that can expect snow Thursday:
Manitoba
After a dry break Wednesday, wet weather returns to southern Manitoba and the interlake Thursday. A low heads into western Manitoba from central Saskatchewan, and rain returns. With highs of only 0-5, mixed precipitation or even snow can’t be ruled out. While the low moves into southwestern Manitoba, the rain will happen to the north and west of the low, so there may be some areas of the southwest that don’t see any rain at all, even though they will be directly under the low itself. That said, there won’t be a lot of moisture anywhere. Accumulations should be near 5 mm. Highs will range from 0 to 5.
Friday (Halloween!)
Alberta
Chinook conditions will develop all along the Alberta foothills Friday, and the wind could become quite powerful, especially in southwwstern Alberta near Crowsnest Pass and Pincher Creek. Expect to see a chinook arch over a wide stretch of the Alberta foothills, with a band of chinook cloud to the east. The rest of the province will remain mainly sunny. In the chinook belt, expect highs betwen 10 and 15 degrees with a strong wind. The rest of the province will be warmer than average, with highs of 5 to 10. The only weather issue affecting trick or treaters will be the wind.
Saskatchewan
High pressure over Saskatchewan should keep the province under a mainly sunny sky, though scattered cloud will be a common sight. No significant weather is expected. Highs will be in the 0-5 degree range during the afternoon, but may fall to just below zero for early evening Halloween festivities.
Manitoba
Scattered showers and flurries are expected in southern Manitoba, before high pressure moves in to clear the sky toward the weekend. While significant moisture is not expected, the remnant showers may dampen Halloween activities in southern Manitoba. Despite the unsettled weather, it will be a warm Halloween Day by Manitoba standards. Parts of southern Manitoba may reach highs of 5-10 degrees, but most of the province will settle for highs of 0-5.
Saturday
Alberta
Warm and windy weather continues in Alberta Saturday, the first day of November, as a lee low slowly forms near Calgary. Aloft, there will be a strong westerly flow. Thus, most of southern Alberta will be sunny, windy, and warm. North of the low, expect a few showers in central Alberta. It will be warm enough that the greatest likelihood is for November rain (cue Guns ‘N Roses), rather than snow. It will be extraordinarily warm in southeastern Alberta, with highs of 15 to 20 degrees. Medicine Hat’s record high for November 1 is 23.3, set in 1883. That record is probably not in play, but worth watching. Elsewhere in central and southern Alberta, look for highs in the 10-15 degree range, and the rest of the province will be warm as well, with highs of 5-10.
Saskatchewan
Expect a windy day across Saskatchewan Saturday, with clouds on the western side of the province, and sunshine in the eastern half. A low pressure system in southern Alberta will draw mild air into the province from the southwest. Southwestern Saskatchewan will be extraordinarily warm, with highs of 15 to 20 degrees west of Moose Jaw. High temperature records are possible. For example, the record November 1 high for Swift Current is 18.5, set in 1978. That record, and others, will be in jeopardy. Elsewhere across Saskatchewan it will also be warmer than average with highs of 5-15.
Manitoba
A southerly flow at the surface and aloft will bring some mild air into Manitoba for the first of November. West of the Red River Valley and through much of the interlake, expect highs between 5 adn 10 degrees. To the east and north, highs will be in the 0 to 5 degree range. Snow from an arctic Low will fall in northwestern Manitoba Saturday, but the rest of the province should stay dry.
Sunday
Alberta
The low that produced rain in central Alberta on Saturday moves to southern Manitoba on Sunday, and behind it, the sky over Alberta will clear. No significant weather is expected, as the province will be dry and sunny. However, the loss of Saturday’s chinook condtions will give slightly cooler weather to Alberta on Sunday. In the south, highs will range from 5-10 degrees, which is still well above average. Central and northern Alberta can expect highs of 0 to 5.
Saskatchewan
Even with a shift in the wind to the northwest, it will be another warm November day in Saskatchewan. The southern half of the province can expect highs from 5-10 degrees, and in the north, highs will range from 0 to 5. There will be another east west split in cloud cover, with the western half of the province under a sunny sky. There will be cloud cover to the east. The low that developed over Alberta on Saturday is an Alberta Clipper, and by definitiion, it’s fast moving. On Sunday, that low will already be in southern Manitoba, and will shoot some light rain showers back into central Saskatchewan during the day.
Manitoba
An Alberta clipper moves into southern Manitoba Sunday, drawing in very mild air from the south. Highs in the mid teens are not out of the question for places like Morden and Roseisle, south of Lake Manitoba. Highs of 10-15 will be common across southern Manitoba, and to the north, all locations should reach highs at least in the 0-5 degree range. The low will eventually bring rain, though. Rain can be expected in the northern Interlake during the midday, wrapping back around into southwestern Manitoba by the afternoon, and spreading eastward toward evening.
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