Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Harvestus Interruptus. Harvesting opportunities this week will be frequently interrupted by showers and storms
Rain will continue to impact the prairies through the long weekend, bringing rain from time to time and pulling down temperatures in some areas. This, of course, will impact the harvest, which continues to run behind schedule.
The following two maps show expected rainfall accumulation across the Canadian prairies until Sunday evening. The heaviest rain will fall in Alberta, west of Edmonton, and into the Peace Region. Most of that falls Thursday, though it will continue beyond:
Pockets of heavier accumulation will also reach parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba, from now until Sunday night. The heaviest rainfall will be in the vicinity of the Trans Canada Highway:
This is not a lost weekend, despite the unsettled pattern.
The most important distinction is between mature crops waiting to be harvested, and crops still filling or maturing.
In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the warmth Thursday and Friday is beneficial for crops that aren’t quite ready. But for mature cereals, pulses and canola, additional rainfall becomes increasingly problematic. Saskatchewan’s latest report already shows a large proportion of the crop still waiting for the combine, while Manitoba’s September 1 report says canola is only 5% harvested and spring wheat only 21%.
Alberta has the greatest urgency because harvest is so far behind. The August 25 report showed only about 4% of major crops harvested, with the Peace just beginning to get into harvest.
Thursday
Peace Region
It will be a poor harvest day in the Peace Region, with clouds increasing and scattered showers developing, particularly through the afternoon and evening. Temperatures will turn cooler, with highs generally in the upper teens to low 20s. The Peace is only just getting into harvest mode. As of August 25, only about 1.6% of dry peas, 0.7% of barley and 0.5% of spring wheat had been harvested, although swathing of canola had begun. Crop conditions remained relatively good, with 49% of major crops rated good to excellent, while expected dryland yields were about 9% above the five-year average. Any rain will delay this early harvest and, perhaps more importantly, slow the drying of crops that are approaching maturity.
Alberta
A low moving north from Montana becomes the main weather maker. Clouds increase with widespread showers, with the best precipitation chances across central and northern Alberta. Southern Alberta can also see showers, while southeast Alberta may have some gusty winds. Temperatures fall back into the upper teens to low 20s. This is particularly unwelcome given how far behind harvest remains. As of August 25, only about 4% of Alberta’s major crops had been harvested, versus five- and 10-year averages of approximately 15% and 12%. Barley was 8.6% complete, spring wheat 1.1%, canola only 0.1%, while dry peas were 27.9% complete. Little useful combining weather. Rain will add to the backlog, particularly in central and northern Alberta where fields are already wet. Mature crops in southern Alberta are the exception, with some opportunity where showers miss.
Saskatchewan
Saskatchewan is in a very different situation from Alberta. Warm air surges northward, with many areas reaching the mid-20s. There is a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, particularly Thursday night as a warm front moves north. The latest provincial report had harvest at 11% complete, well behind the five-year average of 25%. But there is substantial regional and crop-to-crop variation: winter wheat was 60% harvested, fall rye 69%, lentils 48%, peas 44%, while only 1% of spring wheat and canola had been harvested. Thursday offers some good drying and maturity advancement, especially where fields are ready. However, thunderstorms Thursday night could interrupt operations and produce locally heavy rain. With 37% of cropland already rated short and another 10% very short for moisture, not every area needs more rain, but mature crops certainly don’t need a soaking.
Manitoba
The weather Thursday is warm, but increasingly unsettled. Highs should reach the mid-20s, with increasing cloud and a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, particularly later in the day and overnight. Manitoba’s latest report shows harvest at 11% complete, but the regional variation is enormous. Central Manitoba was already at 20%, the Interlake 16%, Southwest 7%, Eastern 5% and Northwest only 3%. Spring wheat was 21% harvested and barley 26%, while canola had only reached 5%. Recent rainfall has also been highly variable. Parts of southwest Manitoba received more than 80 mm during the previous week, while some areas received very little. A warm Thursday will help maturity and drying, but the shower/thunderstorm risk becomes increasingly important. Wet fields and heavy dew will further limit harvest opportunities.
Friday
Peace Region
A low-pressure system remains nearby, keeping rain in the forecast, as indicated in the map below. Temperatures remain relatively cool, generally mid-to-upper teens. It will be another frustrating day for Peace Region producers. The crop is finally reaching the point where harvest activity should be accelerating, but moisture and cool temperatures continue to work against that. Where crops have been swathed, drying will be slow.
Alberta
For Alberta overall, this will probably be the worst harvest day of the four days. The low lingers over the province, producing cloudy skies, showers and cool temperatures, particularly through central and northern Alberta. Highs generally range from the mid-teens to around 20 degrees. Temperatures could reach the 20 to 24 degree range in southeastern Alberta, where it will stay dry. The Alberta crop report notes that northern regions remain unusually wet and that additional warm weather is needed to push crops toward maturity. Harvest has begun in the north, but progress remains slow. Expect wet fields, high humidity and slow grain drying. Another round of rain at this stage could create quality concerns in mature crops.
Saskatchewan
In contrast to Alberta, this is likely the best harvest weather of the four days for much of Saskatchewan. Temperatures climb into the mid-20s, with a mix of sun and clouds. Some showers or thunderstorms may linger or develop, but many areas should get a useful period of drying. The southwest, already leading the province in harvest progress, should continue to make the most momentum. Areas farther north and east will have more crops still needing to mature. Today’s a good opportunity to combine mature cereals, pulses and oilseeds where fields are dry enough. Warm temperatures should also help crops approaching maturity.
Manitoba
Friday will be warm and, potentially, a very useful harvest day. A mix of sun and cloud should produce temperatures in the mid-20s, although showers and thunderstorms remain possible. The latest Manitoba report shows considerable crop maturity already: winter wheat is 86% harvested, fall rye 92%, field peas 64%, spring wheat 21% and barley 26%. Canola is only 5% complete, however, so a great deal of the main harvest remains ahead. Friday could provide one of the better combining opportunities of the period, particularly across the drier areas of central and southern Manitoba. Morning dew and any overnight showers will still reduce the usable window.
Saturday
Peace Region
The weather turns around in the Peace region, but the question will be whether the soil will dry out enough to get equipment onto the fields. The Alberta low weakens and moves away, allowing a mix of sun and cloud. Temperatures recover toward seasonal levels, around the upper teens to low 20s. The improvement won’t instantly dry out fields that received rain Thursday and Friday, but Saturday begins the drying process. Limited harvest early, but conditions should improve through the day. Better opportunity in lighter soils and fields that escaped the heavier showers.
Alberta
Wet weather will continue in central and south central Alberta, but there will be a significant improvement in the north. A mix of sun and cloud develops, with central and northern Alberta seeing the best sunshine. Temperatures return to the low 20s. Southern Alberta retains a chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm as another low begins to develop to the south. This is the first genuinely useful harvest day for parts of Alberta following the Thursday-Friday setback. It won’t be perfect. The ground will still be wet in many areas, but sunshine, higher temperatures and increasing drying winds should help.
Saskatchewan
The weekend transition begins. Expect a mix of sun and cloud, with temperatures generally in the low 20s. Scattered showers are likely in southern and central Saskatchewan as disturbances move north ahead of a developing low over the northern U.S. Northern Saskatchewan should generally have more sunshine and fewer showers. It will be another reasonably good harvest day, especially across central and northern areas. Southern Saskatchewan needs to watch the shower risk closely, particularly later in the day.
Manitoba
Conditions become less settled. A mix of sun and cloud early on will give way to increasing cloud, with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Temperatures should remain near the low 20s. The biggest issue is soil condition. Manitoba’s latest crop report notes that some areas have received substantial rainfall while others remain relatively dry; parts of the Northwest have had more than 300 mm since May 1, while localized areas of central, eastern and Interlake Manitoba have received less than 80% of normal precipitation. This will be a usable harvest day in areas that stay dry, but increasingly hit-and-miss. Producers should take advantage of dry fields whenever possible.
Sunday
Peace Region
Generally favourable weather is expected in the Peace on Sunday. A mix of sun and cloud with temperatures in the high teens or low 20s. An isolated shower cannot be ruled out. That said, after the wet start to the period, Sunday should provide a better drying opportunity. One of the better days for getting equipment back into fields, although wet spots will remain problematic.
Alberta
A mix of sun and cloud continues, with temperatures in the low 20s. Central and northern Alberta should remain the driest. Southern areas have a better chance of isolated showers or thunderstorms as the next low develops south of the border. Good harvest potential in central and northern Alberta, especially where Friday’s rain wasn’t excessive. Southern Alberta will have to work around localized showers. However, this may be the last broadly favourable day before another major weather system arrives Monday-Tuesday.
Saskatchewan
A mix of sun and cloud, seasonable temperatures and scattered showers and thunderstorms. The storms are mainly associated with disturbances moving northward ahead of the developing low. Central and northern Saskatchewan should have the better conditions. There will still be enough opportunity to make harvest progress, but producers in southern Saskatchewan should be watching the sky carefully. The potential for a much wetter Monday-Tuesday makes Sunday’s harvest window particularly valuable.
Manitoba
The weather becomes increasingly unsettled. Expect more cloud with scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially as the developing low approaches from the southwest. Temperatures remain near seasonal levels, generally low 20s. Harvest opportunities become increasingly fragmented. Areas that stay dry can make progress, but widespread drying will be limited by cloud, humidity, and showers.
EVENT FORECASTS
Lakeland Rodeo Association Finals/Showdown Rodeo, September 3-6, St. Paul, AB
September 3 – Becoming mainly sunny, breezy, high 23
September 4 – Mainly sunny, high 23
September 5 – Mainly cloudy with sunny periods, high 19
September 6 – Mainly sunny, breezy, high 20
Reynolds Alberta Museum Harvest Festival, Sept 5 – 6, Wetaskiwin, AB
September 5 – Cloudy, high 15
September 6 – Mainly cloudy, high 18
Good Note Harvest Festival, Sept 5, New Sarepta, AB
September 5 – Cloudy, high 16
Interior Provincial Exhibition and Stampede, Until Sept 6, Armstrong, BC
September 3 – Mostly sunny, high 16
September 4 – Mostly cloudy, high 16
September 5 – Morning sun, increasing afternoon cloud, high 17
September 6 – Increasing cloud, high 20
