Prairie Weather This Week

Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Dry, warm November weather across most of the prairies this week.

RRC soundbites · RRC Farm Weather Reports for the week of November 10

Last week, this outlook was all about Alberta Clippers, and how a series of them would march across the prairies, bringing snow, mainly to Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The clippers, we said, would move fast, and there wouldn’t be any opportunity for significant accumulations. Here’s the result, as seen on a Highway Hotline webcam along the Trans Canada Highway at Rush Lake, Saskatchewan:

While it is always nice to validate a forecast, more snow would have been welcome.

The chart below, shows snow cover across North American on Saturday, November 8:

Will there be more snow this week? It doesn’t look that way.

The map below shows expected precipitation up until Sunday night at midnight. It looks like the southern halves of Alberta and Saskatchewan will stay dry. There will be some snow for Manitoba, but not a lot.

Note that the scale of the above map is in inches. The lack of moisture is due to an extremely amplified jetstream pattern, which will build an upper ridge over western Canada. The ridge will also lead to warm weather this week, particularly for the first few days. The week begins mild and windy in Alberta, colder east of the Saskatchewan River Basin, then transitions to a broad mild ridge by midweek. Precipitation will be minimal across all three provinces; mostly trace rain/snow near the Alberta foothills and light flurries across the northern prairie forests. Accumulations will be light – less than 10 mm. For agricultural lands, there will be no meaningful moisture recharge.

Let’s dig into the details:

Monday

Alberta

The influence of the upper ridge will provide mild and windy conditions for Alberta, with highs from 8-13 in central and southern regions. Highs higher than 15 are possible south of the Trans Canada Highway. Strong Chinook wind is likely in the foothills, with gusts up to 80-100 km/h possible in Pincher Creek and Crowsnest Pass. Elsewhere across southern Alberta, wind gusts in the 60-80 km/h range will be common – monitor for feedlot stress. Meanwhile, a low in the Northwest Territories will drag some rain from west to east across the northern forests.

Saskatchewan

Freezing rain in northern Saskatchewan will turn to rain in the afternoon. This affects the boreal forest. Agricultural lands to the south will stay dry. Central and western Saskatchewan will be sunny, but quite windy. Double digit highs are possible in southwestern Saskatchewan, while the rest of the province can expect highs between 5 and 10 degrees. The warm air and brisk wind across the south will continue the deterioration of soil moisture levels across southern Saskatchewan. The chart below shows below average soil moisture levels (brown), widespread across Saskatchewan and the agricultural prairies:

Manitoba

Snow and freezing rain will cross northern Manitoba, along a warm front emanating from a low in the Northwest Territories, north of Saskatchewan. The interlake and southern Manitoba will stay dry through the day, with a mix of sun and cloud. Highs will range from -3 to +1, but it will feel colder with persistent northerly wind in the 30 to 40 km/h range. Though there won’t be any snowfall Monday in agricultural regions, soil frost will deepen.

Tuesday, Remembrance Day

Alberta

It’s another warm and dry day for Alberta, with the exception of rain or freezing rain that may occur in the morning between Lesser Slave Lake and Calling Lake. Overall, the province will have mild and breezy weather, with highs in the 5 to 14 degree range. As one might expect, the highest chance for double digit temperatures will be south of the Trans Canada Highway, and east of highway 22. It will be breezy between Highway 3 and the US border, with sustained wind near 30 km/h.

Saskatchewan

Aloft, a northerly flow briefly continues, but at the surface, the wind will be out of the west, and most of Saskatchewan will be mainly sunny. Temperatures will be near the seasonal averages, with highs between -2 and 3, though it could be a bit warmer south of the Trans Canada Highway and west of Regina. The province will stay dry, though late evening showers or freezing rain can’t be ruled out near Meadow Lake. It won’t last long, and accumulations will be insignificant.

Manitoba

An elongated trough of low pressure across northeastern Manitoba will draw wind across the open water of the big lakes, and generate some lake effect precipitation to the east of Lake Winnipeg. Most of it will fall in the form of rain, and will continue through the day. Lake effect rain or snow occurs when a cold wind crosses a large body of warmer open water. Lake effect precipitation no longer occurs when the body of water freezes over. Highs across the province will range from -5 to +5.

Wednesday

Alberta

A surface high pressure system builds over the Rockies Wednesday, keeping Alberta under a mainly clear sky. However, an upper level low in the Pacific could spread some cloud from the west. South of the Trans Canada Highway, expect highs in the 5-10 degree range. To the north, with a light wind, highs will range from -5 to +5.

Saskatchewan

Similar to the weather we’ve recently seen, snow is possible in the northern forests, bur for most of Saskatchewan it will be a mainly sunny, dry day, with a robust westerly wind. Wind speeds could reach 20 to 30 km/h. In southwestern Saskatchewan, places like Maple Creek, Swift Current. Gull Lake, and Val Marie could get close to 10 degrees. Elsewhere across the province, highs will be near zero, give or take a degree or two.

Manitoba

Lake effect moisture will continue east of the northern basin of Lake Winnipeg. Snow will fall to the north. In agricultural regions, with a westerly wind, it will be mainly sunny, and many areas will rise above the melting point with highs of 0 to 5 degrees. Wind will be from the west, but very light.

Thursday

A cooling trend can be expected, going into the weekend across the Canadian prairies. It will be brief, as we’re seeing a return to warmer weather early next week. High pressure continues to deflect storms to the north, so there will be plenty of snow in the northern prairies, while the south stays unfortunately dry.

Creating a weather forecast always begins with a look at current conditions, so here’s a surface analysis map from early Thursday morning. Note the Low developing in the BC Peace region:

That low will be the main weather maker for the next few days. Snow will be limited to the mountains and the northern prairies. Also note the dashed line in southern Alberta. That’s a lee trough of low pressure, generating serious wind. The Waterton area is under a wind warning as of Thursday morning, and a snowfall warning is in place for Highway 93. Updated watches and warnings can be found here.

Such chinook winds bring warm air to the southern prairies, especially on the western side. The animated map below shows, not temperatures, but temperature anomalies. So, if you see a “2” on the map, it means a temperature that is 2 degrees above average. “-2” would mean two degrees below average. Watch the animation, and you’ll see some extraordinarily warm air moving across the southern prairies early in the period. Toward the end of the animation, you see an invasion of colder than average air on the weekend.

Alberta

As mentioned above, the main focus Thursday is a low-pressure system moving through the Northwest, and some serious wind in the South. In northwestern Alberta, expect snow, with perhaps freezing rain earlier in the day in the Grande Prairie area. 15 to 30 cm of snow can be expected in the mountain parks, making for tough travel conditions. And in the south, strong wind, with gusts near 100 km/h can be expected near Claresholm and Waterton. As the map below shows, the windy conditions will expand across southern Alberta during the day, reaching southwestern Saskatchewan:

While in far northern Alberta, temperatures will remain below zero, in central and southern regions it will be warm. Temperatures will still be mild, pushing up to 5-10°C, and maybe even into the mid-teens in the far south.

Saskatchewan

Snow spreads in Thursday afternoon and will intensify in the evening, with 10-20 cm expected in the far north (Stoney Rapids, Key Lake, etc.). Freezing rain can’t be ruled out along the southern edge of the precipitation. It’s a different story – almost a different season – in southern Saskatchewan, where it will be a quiet, mild day. As the map above shows, parts of southern Saskatchewan could become a bit breezy, thanks to the circulation around an Alberta low. Anywhere south of Saskatoon will be warmer than the melting point, with temperatures in the low to mid teens possible in southwestern Saskatchewan. In the north, it will be a more typical sub-zero, snowy day.

Manitoba

Significant weather is not expected in Manitoba today. The entire province will stay dry, under the influence of a light northwest wind. North of Thompson, it will be cloudy, and to the south, it will be a sunny day. In the southern half of the province, highs should reach 0 to 5 degrees. In the north, a bit cooler, with highs between 0 and -5.

Friday

Alberta

As the above noted low moves south along the foothills, then to the northeast, mild Pacific air will follow. Temperatures in southern Alberta will continue to be unseasonably warm, still generally in the 5 to 10 degree range. Expect a bit of snow in central and southern Alberta early in the day. Afterward, the sky should gradually start to clear in the West as a high pressure ridge begins to build in. The snow is associated with a cold front, which will also generate a cool northwesterly wind as it blows through in the first half of the day. Snow accumulations will be minor, less than 5 cm, and most of that snow will accumulate south of Highway 3. With the warm weather in the south, accumulated snow could disappear rather quickly. Northern and central Alberta won’t be quite as warm, with highs near or just below the freezing point.

Saskatchewan

Snow continues in the far north through morning, easing by afternoon. In the rest of the province, get ready for a big temperature spike. It will be dry, with a building ridge lifting temperatures into the low to mid-teens across southern zones. Those highs will occur in the early afternoon, with temperatures dropping toward late afternoon, before sunset. Light showers or light flurries can’t be ruled out along the Trans Canada highway west of Moose Jaw in the late afternoon, as a weakening cold front passes through. While the south gets a spike in temperatures, it will be cooler in central and northern regions, with highs near zero, give or take a few degrees.

Manitoba

The low that developed in Alberta and passed through Saskatchewan moves into northern Manitoba early, bringing significant snowfall (10 cm, with localized areas possibly seeing up to 25 cm of heavy, wet snow) and a risk of light freezing rain. The heaviest snow can be expected near Lynn Lake, Thompson, and Tadoule Lake. Prepare for transportation delays in the north. Southern Manitoba, particularly on the western side. will catch some of the warmer air. Highs could hit 15 to 20 degrees in that area, with above average temperatures in the rest of the province as well. Highs of 5 to 15 can be expected as far north as the northern tip of the lakes. Beyond that, highs will be near zero.

Saturday

Alberta

As a ridge of high pressure continues to rebuild, Alberta will be calm, but cooler. Highs in the north will be near 0, and around 4-8 degrees in the south. Even warmer weather is expected in southeastern Alberta, east of Highway 2, and south of Highway 1. Temperatures there are likely to reach the mid teens. Expect bright sunshine in the southern and central regions. To the north, it will be cloudier. A low will form in the afternoon in the Peace Region, and will generate some light snow for northwestern Alberta in the second half of the day.

Saskatchewan

Post frontal chill sets in across the east and north as the Manitoba system exits. Expect brisk northeasterly winds and cooler temperatures, highs between -2 and +2°C, especially from Prince Albert eastward. Southern regions stay near seasonal, around 3–5°C, with generally light winds. If the southwestern corner of the province can catch some of Alberta’s mild air, temperatures in the area may climb into double digits.

Manitoba

Northern areas dig out from Friday’s snow. Early in the day, there may be even more snow, but it will taper off as the system exits to the northeast. Winds ease but temperatures drop quickly under clearing skies. Highs hover near freezing or slightly above; slightly below freezing to the north. Interlake and southern farm regions turn cooler too, but with dry air and sunshine.

Sunday

Alberta

High pressure dominates, bringing clear skies and light breezes. It’s a different story for northwestern Alberta. A warm front from a Low in central BC will push snow into the Peace region and north into the Territories. The snow could be heavy and wet, as highs will be close to zero. Travel will likely be disrupted. Though most of the snow is expected west of Highway 35, travelers should check highway and weather conditions before heading out. Elsewhere, as mentioned, it will be mainly sunny. South of Edmonton, expect highs in the 5-15 degree range., with a southeast wind.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

The cooler, stable conditions persist, with highs still in that -2 to +2°C range in Manitoba. Expect partly cloudy skies and no significant precipitation—just a chilly, quiet end to the weekend. It will be somewhat warmer in Saskatchewan, with highs as warm as 10 degrees in the south and west. Elsewhere, highs will be similar to those in Manitoba, much closer to 0.