Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Dry, warm November weather across most of the prairies this week.
Last week, this outlook was all about Alberta Clippers, and how a series of them would march across the prairies, bringing snow, mainly to Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The clippers, we said, would move fast, and there wouldn’t be any opportunity for significant accumulations. Here’s the result, as seen on a Highway Hotline webcam along the Trans Canada Highway at Rush Lake, Saskatchewan:
While it is always nice to validate a forecast, more snow would have been welcome.
The chart below, shows snow cover across North American on Saturday, November 8:
Will there be more snow this week? It doesn’t look that way.
The map below shows expected precipitation up until Sunday night at midnight. It looks like the southern halves of Alberta and Saskatchewan will stay dry. There will be some snow for Manitoba, but not a lot.
Note that the scale of the above map is in inches. The lack of moisture is due to an extremely amplified jetstream pattern, which will build an upper ridge over western Canada. The ridge will also lead to warm weather this week, particularly for the first few days. The week begins mild and windy in Alberta, colder east of the Saskatchewan River Basin, then transitions to a broad mild ridge by midweek. Precipitation will be minimal across all three provinces; mostly trace rain/snow near the Alberta foothills and light flurries across the northern prairie forests. Accumulations will be light – less than 10 mm. For agricultural lands, there will be no meaningful moisture recharge.
Let’s dig into the details:
Monday
Alberta
The influence of the upper ridge will provide mild and windy conditions for Alberta, with highs from 8-13 in central and southern regions. Highs higher than 15 are possible south of the Trans Canada Highway. Strong Chinook wind is likely in the foothills, with gusts up to 80-100 km/h possible in Pincher Creek and Crowsnest Pass. Elsewhere across southern Alberta, wind gusts in the 60-80 km/h range will be common – monitor for feedlot stress. Meanwhile, a low in the Northwest Territories will drag some rain from west to east across the northern forests.
Saskatchewan
Freezing rain in northern Saskatchewan will turn to rain in the afternoon. This affects the boreal forest. Agricultural lands to the south will stay dry. Central and western Saskatchewan will be sunny, but quite windy. Double digit highs are possible in southwestern Saskatchewan, while the rest of the province can expect highs between 5 and 10 degrees. The warm air and brisk wind across the south will continue the deterioration of soil moisture levels across southern Saskatchewan. The chart below shows below average soil moisture levels (brown), widespread across Saskatchewan and the agricultural prairies:
Map: windy.tv
Manitoba
Snow and freezing rain will cross northern Manitoba, along a warm front emanating from a low in the Northwest Territories, north of Saskatchewan. The interlake and southern Manitoba will stay dry through the day, with a mix of sun and cloud. Highs will range from -3 to +1, but it will feel colder with persistent northerly wind in the 30 to 40 km/h range. Though there won’t be any snowfall Monday in agricultural regions, soil frost will deepen.
Tuesday, Remembrance Day
Alberta
It’s another warm and dry day for Alberta, with the exception of rain or freezing rain that may occur in the morning between Lesser Slave Lake and Calling Lake. Overall, the province will have mild and breezy weather, with highs in the 5 to 14 degree range. As one might expect, the highest chance for double digit temperatures will be south of the Trans Canada Highway, and east of highway 22. It will be breezy between Highway 3 and the US border, with sustained wind near 30 km/h.
Saskatchewan
Aloft, a northerly flow briefly continues, but at the surface, the wind will be out of the west, and most of Saskatchewan will be mainly sunny. Temperatures will be near the seasonal averages, with highs between -2 and 3, though it could be a bit warmer south of the Trans Canada Highway and west of Regina. The province will stay dry, though late evening showers or freezing rain can’t be ruled out near Meadow Lake. It won’t last long, and accumulations will be insignificant.
Manitoba
An elongated trough of low pressure across northeastern Manitoba will draw wind across the open water of the big lakes, and generate some lake effect precipitation to the east of Lake Winnipeg. Most of it will fall in the form of rain, and will continue through the day. Lake effect rain or snow occurs when a cold wind crosses a large body of warmer open water. Lake effect precipitation no longer occurs when the body of water freezes over. Highs across the province will range from -5 to +5.
Wednesday
Alberta
A surface high pressure system builds over the Rockies Wednesday, keeping Alberta under a mainly clear sky. However, an upper level low in the Pacific could spread some cloud from the west. South of the Trans Canada Highway, expect highs in the 5-10 degree range. To the north, with a light wind, highs will range from -5 to +5.
Saskatchewan
Similar to the weather we’ve recently seen, snow is possible in the northern forests, bur for most of Saskatchewan it will be a mainly sunny, dry day, with a robust westerly wind. Wind speeds could reach 20 to 30 km/h. In southwestern Saskatchewan, places like Maple Creek, Swift Current. Gull Lake, and Val Marie could get close to 10 degrees. Elsewhere across the province, highs will be near zero, give or take a degree or two.
Manitoba
Lake effect moisture will continue east of the northern basin of Lake Winnipeg. Snow will fall to the north. In agricultural regions, with a westerly wind, it will be mainly sunny, and many areas will rise above the melting point with highs of 0 to 5 degrees. Wind will be from the west, but very light.
Thursday
Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba
Basically, the weather you experience Wednesday will be repeated on Thursday. The three prairie provinces will be dry, with the exception of the Boreal Forest in northern Alberta, will will receive 2-5 cm of snow. Elsewhere, expect mainly sunny weather across the prairies, A low pressure system will form near Sundre, Alberta Thursday afternoon, and that will change the wind direction in Alberta and Saskatchewan from the west to the southeast. The wind in Manitoba will mainly come from the east. However, this is something called a lee low, and carries no moisture. High temperatures will be similar to those on Wednesday. Manitoba’s highs will be near zero. Saskatchewan and Alberta will warm a few degrees above the melting point, and in southern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan, expect highs from 5 to 10 degrees.
Friday
Alberta
The lee low that forms near Sundre on Thursday moves northeast to the Bonnyville area and crosses into Saskatchewan. As it moves, it strengthens, and produces snow for the northern half of Alberta. The snow will be relatively light, but persistent. Accumulations will likely be under 10 cm. In the Red Deer area, it may be warm enough for the midday precipitation to fall in the form of rain. (Precipitation type forecasting is very difficult at this time of year!) South of Red Deer, it will stay dry, and the wind will shift back to the west. South of the Trans Canada Highway, highs will reach 5-10 degrees. To the north, single digit highs are likely as far north as Edmonton. Further north, highs will be near or slightly below 0.
Saskatchewan
A low from Alberta moves into northern Saskatchewan, producing what can only be described as a messy day. Rain, snow, freezing rain are all possible anywhere north of Prince Albert. As the map below shows, significant precipitation will fall on the north, but there is nothing for the moisture-starved fields and pastures to the south.
The low will not only produce precipitation, warm air will be drawn in ahead of it. That’s why rain and freezing rain can’t be ruled out. It’s also why temperatures will rise to the 5-10 degree range from Saskatoon south to the US border.
Manitoba
Manitoba’s agricultural land will again be exempt from the wet weather that will occur in the northern part of the province, and east of the Lakes (map above). Warm air will be drawn into the southern part of the province, with highs from 5-10 degrees south of the lakes. For perspective, Winnipeg could reach a high of 6 on Friday. The average high is 0.
Saturday and Sunday
The low that produced the snow in northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba on Friday moves north, but it will be much stronger. That means snow will continue through Saturday in those areas, but rain will develop along a warm front that will cross southern Manitoba. While Alberta and Saskatchewan remain dry on Saturday, southern Manitoba could receive 5-15 mm of rain. It will be quite warm in Manitoba on Saturday. All the way to the northern boundary, temperatures in the province are likely to rise above zero. Southern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan will experience highs of 5-10 on Saturday, with the remainder of both provinces reaching for highs near zero. On Sunday, a Low will traverse southern Alberta and southern Saskatchewan. It won’t generate significant moisture, but it will draw warm air into the southern prairies. Highs of 5-10 degrees can be expected in southern Alberta south of highway 3. 10-15 degree highs are likely for southern Saskatchewan, and in Manitoba and the central and northern portions of Alberta and Saskatchewan, highs will again be near zero.
SEE ALSO: A throwback to an item done two years ago on Probability of Precipitation, and how to interpret it.
