Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – While the agricultural lands of the southern prairies remain stubbornly dry, winter weather has arrived not too far away, in the central prairies.  These three photos were captured Sunday, November 10.

Vermillion, Alberta

Hudson Bay, SK, Airport

Riding Mountain National Park, Manitoba

Meantime, it remains dry across the southern prairies, with no significant accumulations of precipitation.   And it will be a few days yet before agricultural regions in the southern prairies see any significant change. More dry weather is expected across Alberta and Saskatchewan for the early part of this week.   An upper ridge will develop over the western prairies by mid week, and warmer weather will return.  That’s temporary, and will be followed by a large upper trough next weekend, that could bring some snow to areas where it’s needed.   Will it be enough?   Read on.   Southern Alberta, along and south of the highway 3 corridor can expect gusty wind through the mid week.

Monday:

Alberta

A strong Low pressure system off the west coast will pump plenty of rain onshore, and snow throughout the BC interior, particularly on west facing slopes.    That moisture gets wrung out in the Rockies, so the Pacific air is dry when it arrives in Alberta.   A lee trough will develop east of the Rockies, and warm, dry conditions can be expected.  A Low pressure system will develop in central Alberta by the end of the day, but moisture from that Low will fall in northern Saskatchewan, and in the form of snow.  Because of the mild, dry Pacific air, most areas of Alberta from Edmonton south can expect double digit high temperatures, and a moderate southwesterly wind.  North of Edmonton, and especially north of Athabasca, it will be cooler with highs near or just below zero.

Saskatchewan

As a low pressure system develops during the day in central Alberta, the circulation around that low will give us a brisk southerly wind, and an area of snow will develop from Prince Albert northwest to Buffalo Narrows.   Agricultural regions will stay dry.  Highs of 5-10 degrees can be expected in the southwest.   Only in the far northern part of the province will highs fail to reach the melting point.

Manitoba

No significant weather is expected in Manitoba, and it will be warm, particularly near the North Dakota border, where temperatures should reach 5-10 degrees in the afternoon.   Positive afternoon highs (0=5) are expected all the way to the northern end of the lakes.  North of there, subzero weather will continue.

Tuesday:

Alberta

The Low that developed in central Alberta Monday, repositions itself to the north.   That will provide some snow to the far northern part of Alberta in the early part of the day.  In the afternoon, some snow may develop in the Peace Region, but it’s not expected to leave significant amounts on the ground.  Meantime in the south, a westerly wind develops, which will continue to keep southern Alberta dry.    Double digit highs are expected again Tuesday south of Edmonton, but to the north it will be cooler.

Saskatchewan

While the forests of the far north can expect a snowy day, the rest of the province will have uneventful weather.  Dry westerly wind will continue, and there will be no significant precipitation in agricultural areas.     It could get as warm as 10 degrees south of Saskatoon, with cooler, but still positive highs to the north, except for the snowy areas near the NWT boundary.

Manitoba

Snow in the far north, dry south of Thompson.    Manitoba’s forecast is clearly worthy of comparisons to the movie Groundhog Day.   A dry, southerly wind will create mild weather, with 5-10 degree highs all the way to the north shores of Lake Winnipeg and Lake Winnipegosis.  Further north, even in the snow, highs will be close to the freezing point.

Wednesday:

Alberta

The large Pacific Low off the west coast will spawn another lee-side low in western Alberta.    The Low will develop in the foothills west of Red Deer, and the precipitation it generates will be to the north.   So, agricultural regions in the south will have yet another dry day.  The snow is expected north of the Yellowhead Highway.   Central and southern regions will remain moisture starved.  In the dry south, it will be warm.   Note the orange spot in Alberta on the map below.   Highs between Lethbridge and Drumheller could reach 10-15 degrees!

Saskatchewan

Referencing the map above, it will be another warm day for southwestern Saskatchewan, with 5-10 degree highs west of Regina.  Elsewhere in the province, temperatures will peak within a few degrees either side of zero.   It will be dry again in the agricultural regions, with perhaps light snow from time to time near the NWT boundary.

Manitoba

Cool weather for Manitoba Wednesday, with temperatures rising only a few degrees above zero in central and southern parts of the province.  Like Alberta and Saskatchewan, it will be dry across the south for most of the day.   Light rain is possible, though, in the morning, east of Portage La Prairie.   This rainfall will be along a warm front, attached to a Low in Hudson Bay.  As the low moves away, so does the rain, after leaving less than 5 mm.

Thursday:

Alberta

Snow will carry on through the day along the central boundary between Alberta and Saskatchewan, and in northern Alberta.   This will provide moisture to the agricultural regions near Grande Prairie and in the Peace region.  There won’t be a whole lot of it, though, with 2-5 cm possible. The moisture is coming from a Low pressure system that will cross from southeastern Alberta to southwestern Saskatchewan by early afternoon.   In Southern Alberta, no precipitation is expected, as a drying westerly wind continues to produce chinook conditions.  The chinook will produce warm weather south of Red Deer, with temperatures reaching 10-15 degrees southeast of Calgary in the afternoon, with 5-10 degree highs west of Highway 2.   North of Red Deer, temperatures will remain below zero through the day.

Saskatchewan

It’ll be another warm day south of Saskatoon, where highs will reach 5-10 degrees.  Mild Pacific air will spread across the south, and with a westerly wind, highs of 10-15 are possible south of the Trans Canada Highway.  A low in Alberta that develops Wednesday will move into southern Saskatchewan, and by the afternoon, will be centered near Weyburn.  Because it will be so warm south of Highway 1, rain is expected to fall in the vicinity of the Low.  This, of course, is beneficial rainfall, as where the ground remains unfrozen there is a chance of the moisture sinking in, and getting locked in through the winter freeze.   However, the warmth does not extend that far north, so there will be snow across central Saskatchewan throughout most of the day.

Manitoba

The morning started with fog in parts of Manitoba.   This photo was captured mid morning near Oakville:

As the fog disappears, some afternoon rain and snow can be expected near Swan River and The Pas, from a Low pressure system in southern Saskatchewan.   The circulation around that low will generate a southeasterly wind across most of southern Manitoba, and a northeasterly wind in the north.   Temperatures in southern Manitoba could reach 5-10 degrees, but with the northeasterly wind up north, some areas may have a very cold day with temperatures from -5 to -15.   Other than the west central rain and snow, the rest of the province is expected to stay dry.

Friday:

Alberta

The weather in Alberta becomes cool and unsettled, as a large upper trough develops over the western prairies and the mountain west of the United States.    Beneath this large trough, the weather will be quite unsettled with periods of light snow expected in Alberta north of Calgary, and cool weather across the province.   From Athabasca all the way south to highway 3, temperatures may briefly pop up above the melting point.   The only significantly warm area will be south of Highway 3, where temperatures could reach 5-10 degrees, and the wind will lighten up and change direction from west to north by mid afternoon.

Saskatchewan

Saskatchewan will also feel the effects of the large upper trough, with snow falling in the northeastern quarter of the province through the day.    With the cool, unsettled air, temperatures across most of the province will only reach values near 0, though highs above 5 degrees are possible south of the Trans Canada Highway.   The Low pressure system near The Pas will remain nearly stationary, so the snow in the northeast will be slow to pull away.

Manitoba

Like the other prairie provinces, Manitoba will be cool and unsettled.   From the northern half of Lake Winnipeg to the province’s northern boundary, snow can be expected yet again, while the southern agricultural regions will not likely get any rain or snow.   The snow is being generated by a nearly stationary surface Low, which will spend most of the day near The Pas, moving very slowly ENE.    On the south side of the Low, it will rain across central Manitoba, but to the north, as mentioned, there will be snow.  The same low giving snow to the north will draw mild air from the south into southern Manitoba, and double digit highs are possible from Portage La Prairie south to North Dakota.  Elsewhere in southern Manitoba, with a westerly wind, and no moisture, the agricultural regions will stay dry.

Saturday:

Alberta

Another major storm slams into the BC coast, providing heavy rain, with big snowfalls through the interior.   As is typical, that moisture gets wrung out over the Rockies, leaving Alberta with dry, breezy weather.   Chinook conditions will develop, and temperatures will climb above the melting point all along the foothills, from the Peace region to the US border and beyond.  The warm air will extend across central Alberta.  There is a chance for double digit highs roughly in a line from Springbank to Milk River.

Saskatchewan

Across the province it will be cool, with highs a few degrees either side of zero.  The wind will be coming from the south, but it’s dry air, and in most areas, no significant precipitation is expected.   Except for the far southeastern corner of the province.   A moisture-laden low will move up from the southwest to the North Dakota-South Dakota-Minnesota boundary, and some snow from the low is expected to reach extreme southeastern Saskatchewan.   There is a possibility the moisture in this area will initially fall in the morning as freezing rain before changing over to snow.   This could deposit a thin layer of treacherous ice on roads and highways.

Manitoba

As a surface low in the US gets closer to the province, it will spread moisture into southern Manitoba through the day.    Rain or freezing rain can expected in the morning in the Brandon area,  changing to snow as the circulation around the US low draws cold air into western Manitoba.   On the east side of the low, a southeasterly circulation will pump in warmer air along with the moisture, so rain can be expected in the Red River Valley and the southern Interlake.   The rain will turn to snow in many areas as it cools down in the evening.  In the warm sector, in southeastern Manitoba, temperatures will reach 5-10 degrees.   In the west, where the snow flies, look for highs near 0.

Sunday:

Two surface lows in Alberta will affect the weather all across the prairies.   A Low in far northern Alberta will spread fairly heavy snow into northern Alberta and northwestern Saskatchewan.  Most of this snow will be above the 58th parallel – way up north.   The second low, near Edmonton, may lead to some minor snowfall near Hinton and Edson, but the circulation around it will bring mild air and dry air from the south into all three prairie provinces.  Double digit highs can be expected in southern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan.   This map shows temperatures expected mid-afternoon Sunday.

 

 

COMPARE TO LAST WEEK’S FORECAST: Prairie Weather This Week – Nov 4