Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Snow!  The long spell of endless days of dry weather come to an end across much of the agricultural prairies this week, as a series of systems will bring rain and snow to the parched plain.   And. not a moment too soon, as, according to the latest Canadian Drought Monitor,  drought or dry conditions have returned to parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan, due to a lack of rainfall, higher than average temperatures, and drying wind.

Of note:

• drought or dry conditions have returned to southwestern Manitoba
• drought conditions have expanded across southern Saskatchewan
• much of southern Manitoba is back in drought, despite some wet weather

The Monitor continues to show persistent long term drought between Calgary and Edmonton.   As of November 17, there wasn’t a lot of moisture to be found.   There is just a slight dusting of snow on the fields between Edmonton and Red Deer:

South of Red Deer, no snow at all:

In a week, by Sunday, November 24, the picture could be very different.   Central Alberta should get some light snow this week, with heavier snow expected on the weekend.   And with falling temperatures, this snow could stick around for a while.

Elsewhere on the prairies – more moisture.   Especially in Manitoba, where a Colorado Low will bring rain and snow to the south, including those areas that have returned to drought status.

The map below shows the arrival of the Low on Tuesday, and its weakening path through Thursday.    On the map, blue is snow, green is rain:

It’s expected that every square inch of the prairie provinces will receive at least some snow this week, with the heaviest amounts in western Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan (from the above mentioned Colorado Low), and in parts of Alberta, from another, weaker low that will form in the southeastern corner of the province.   One more map – and this one shows snow accumulations expected up to Sunday,  November 24:

All this snow should provide some drought relief, especially if there’s still a chance some of the moisture can soak into the ground.    As you will read below,  it will get cold, and with the ground freezing in many areas, the chance for a soil soak disappears.

In addition to falling snow, there will be falling temperatures.  Our first real taste of winter is upon us.

Monday:

Alberta

A weak Low pressure system develops in the early morning near Medicine Hat, and quickly produces some snow in southern Alberta.   This will impact travel on Highway 22 between 22X and Highway 3.   Travel on Highway 2 between Calgary and Claresholm will also be impacted.   The snow could persist all day, heaviest in the morning, then lightening during the day as the low weakens and moves to Saskatchewan.    Outside of Alberta’s agricultural regions, a Low in the Northwest Territories will drag snow across the northern half of Alberta through much of the day.  Temperatures will likely stay below the freezing point, except for southeastern Alberta, where it could warm up to a maximum of 5 degrees, thanks to a stronger wind from the WNW.

Saskatchewan

Most of the day will be dry, but a Colorado low en route to southeastern Manitoba will push some moist, mild air into southern Saskatchewan in the afternoon, and rain is expected east of Regina.  Temperatures will rise as high as 10 degrees, with the influx of warm air from the south.   To the north, the moisture will collide with colder air, so snow is expected in and around Saskatoon, with a chance for freezing rain between Humboldt and Wadena.  The precipitation will intensify into the evening, spreading as far north as highway 106.   From this same weather system, some light snow could fall in southwestern Saskatchewan, though accumulations there won’t be significant.

Manitoba

With a light east wind, it will be a rather uneventful weather day for Manitoba.   It’s literally the calm before the storm – a Colorado Low arrives Tuesday!   Ahead of the Low’s arrival, warm air will pour into southern Manitoba from the US.   Temperatures could rise to the high single digits south and east of the lakes.

Tuesday:

Alberta

Brrrr.   South of Highway 3, temperatures could sneak above 0, but only by a degree or two.   All across the rest of Alberta, including the agricultural regions, it will remain colder than the freezing point all day.   In the far north, highs may range from -15 to -20.   A high way up in the northern Yukon will feed the cold air southward to Alberta, and it will generate some upslope snow in the  foothills and mountains west of Edmonton, and north toward the Peace region.

Saskatchewan

By early morning, the rain in southeastern Saskatchewan will turn to snow, as a moisture laden Colorado low moves toward Manitoba.  The circulation around the low will continue to feed moisture into eastern Saskatchewan in the early morning, and as the low gets closer, the snowfall expands.  It will snow through the day in eastern Saskatchewan.   Accumulations of 10 cm will be widespread, with up to 25 cm possible near the town of Hudson Bay.  Snowfall or Winter Storm Warnings for the area may be issued.  Even with the snow, it will be fairly warm, with highs near zero across most of the province, except for the far north, where highs below -10 are likely.

Manitoba

A powerful Colorado Low heads into southeastern Manitoba, pushing warm air ahead of it.   From the Red River Valley to the Ontario boundary,  highs of 5-10 degrees will be reached by midday.  To the north, it will be mild, with temperatures expected to exceed the melting point all the way to Hudson Bay.   In western Manitoba, the counter-clockwise circulation around the Low will draw cooler air into the area west of Lake Winnipeg.   It won’t be super cold, but cool enough for snow.    Heavy snow can be expected through the afternoon in western Manitoba from North Dakota to Nunavut.  The Brandon area can expect 15-25 cm of snow, with lesser amounts to the north.   Watch for Snowfall or Winter Storm Warnings from Environment Canada.

Wednesday:

Alberta

The Yukon High remains stationary, and continues to influence Alberta’s weather.  It will be dry,  except for upslope snow along the foothills from the Peace region south to Pincher Creek.  5-10 cm of snow are possible.  That high continues to feed Arctic air into Alberta,  and it will be COLD.   Temperatures from Nanton north will be well below average, with highs at best near -10.   South of Nanton, it’s only expected to get as warm as -5.

Saskatchewan

Like Alberta, Saskatchewan will shiver under the influence of the strong Yukon high.   Arctic air will slide into the province, keeping temperatures below zero throughout.   The coldest weather will be in the north, and in the Rosetown Kindersley area, where temperatures will likely remain below -10.    Leftover snowfall from Tuesday will continue to fall in eastern Saskatchewan, taking all day to taper off, as the Low pressure system to the east continues to move away.

Manitoba

The previously mentioned Colorado Low moves into Ontario, but it will be another wet or snowy day in Manitoba, as the Low’s moisture continues to feed in on the Low’s counter clockwise circulation.    Rain is expected in eastern Manitoba from the Whiteshell all the way to Hudson Bay.  The western half of the province will get yet more snow, and it will continue through the day.   Temperatures will be near zero – slightly above in the rain, slightly below in the snow.

Thursday:

Alberta

The cold, snowy weather that has resupplied Alberta with beneficial moisture continues.   Morning snow in south central Alberta tapers off in the afternoon.   Then, it’s southern Alberta’s turn for snow in the evening.   Most of this will target southeastern Alberta, with about 5 cm possible in the Cypress Hills.

Saskatchewan

Snow from the Low to the east continues to weaken and retreat.  The northern third of Saskatchewan can expect snow through the day, but in the south, there will be low cloud, which, in places may produce some flurries or freezing drizzle.   Sunny breaks are expected.   Arctic high pressure building in Alberta will draw cold air into Saskatchewan,  so temperatures will be WAY below average.  Highs below -10 are expected across most of the province.

Manitoba

Wet and warm weather continues from the Colorado low that is moving ever so slowly east.  Temperatures along the eastern boundary of the province will again climb above the melting point while the rest of the province will expect highs just a few degrees below zero.   That is cold enough for snow, and snow is indeed expected across most of the province except for two areas.    In the southwest it will dry out.   In the northeastern part of Manitoba, expect fog and freezing drizzle changing to snow as the day goes on.

Friday:

Alberta

More snow, and this could be disruptive to highway travel, as snow is expected from Edmonton south to the US border.  Circulation around the previously mentioned high to the northwest, will generate some upslope flow, so heavier snow is possible in southwestern Alberta, including Pincher Creek, Waterton, and Crowsnest Pass.  The snow will move eastward through the day, with significant snowfall in the afternoon south and southeast of Calgary.    The snow will lighten up a bit in the southwest, but intensify east of Highway 2, with the heaviest amounts in the Cypress Hills and near Manyberries and Onefour, where 10-15 cm are possible.   The map below shows snowfall accumulations between 6:00 pm Thursday and 6:00 pm Friday:

 

Saskatchewan

Highs near -10 are forecast for most of Saskatchewan.  The southern part of the province will have a mix of sun and cloud, with Arctic high pressure keeping the sky clear, and the temperatures low.   The north and northeastern parts of the province can again expect snow, but it will taper off there will be no additional beneficial moisture for the agricultural regions.

Manitoba

The snowy week in Manitoba continues, with more expected through the day across the province, again except for the southwest.   The Arctic high that has frozen Alberta and Saskatchewan for several days finally sends it’s very cold air into Manitoba, and temperatures in the southwest will peak below -10.   Elsewhere, it should be 5 degrees warmer, as the snow falls.

Saturday:

Alberta

In much of Alberta,  keep your snowblowers and plows gassed up.   A low developing near Missoula, Montana, will spread plenty of moisture into Alberta, with heavy snowfall likely in all areas south of the Trans Canada Highway.   If you make travel plans for Saturday in southern Alberta,  prepare to change those plans, and monitor Environment Canada for snowfall and winter storm warnings.   Plans should also be made for those animals that need protection from heavier snow.   This will be an all-day snow event, with the heaviest snowfall early before noon, then tapering off.   While heavier snow falls in the south, lighter snow will fall all day throughout the rest of the province.

Saskatchewan

The Montana low that will give heavy snow to southern Alberta in the morning, will move eastward, and in the afternoon, heavy snow is expected in much of southern Saskatchewan.  This will cause serious travel disruptions through the region, including along the Trans Canada Highway.   The heaviest snow will likely fall between Regina and Swift Current.   Elsewhere, there will be significant snow across southern Saskatchewan as far north as Prince Albert.    It will be cold, with low temperatures, and potentially high wind chills.

Manitoba

Cold weather will also affect Manitoba, but without the snow and blowing snow.   Manitoba gets a bit of a break Saturday, and while subzero temperatures will persist through the day, there won’t be any significant precipitation in the province.   It’s just a break, though, with the snow in Saskatchewan moving in on Sunday.

 

Sunday:

Arctic high pressure in the northern prairies and southern Territories will continue to feed very cold air intio all three prairie provinces on Sunday.   Temperatures across the prairies, from north to south, are unlikely to rise any higher than -10.  And while the snow ends for Alberta, more snow, most of it light, will fall across the southern halves of Saskatchewan and Manitoba, as moisture is fed in from the previously mentioned Montana low, which by Sunday, will have moved to the western Great Lakes region.   As the map below shows, much of Alberta could be stuck with afternoon temperatures between -15 and -20.

 

 

 

 

 

COMPARE TO LAST WEEK: Prairie Weather This Week – Nov 11