Prairie Weather This Week – Nov 4

Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – With the harvest over, farmers are getting their fields ready for winter’s freeze, and the weather later this week will be helpful to that work. The hay bales and other grains will be able to dry, the weather will be fine for applying fall fertilizer. But fields starved for moisture will only get minimal relief from rain or snow earlier in the week.

From November 4 to 10th, temperatures will continue above average, and there will be very little significant precipitation. This is not to say, it will be bone dry. Rain or snow will fall from time to time, but in small amounts.

A strong upper ridge will move across the country from BC to central Canada this week. That will provide many areas with plenty of sunshine, and higher than average temperatures. Some of the warmest air in the country can be expected across the prairies this week. Freezing levels in southern Alberta and southern Saskatchewan could go as high as 12,000 feet by Thursday…an indication of warmth, but not necessarily record warmth. Here is the temperature forecast from ECCC’s GDPS model for late afternoon Thursday:

Plenty of warmth, and opportunities for double digit highs across the prairies from east to west and north to south.

Monday

Alberta:

Throughout the day, a Low pressure system works its way across central BC, ending up near Edmonton by late afternoon. While in BC, the system will dump enormous amounts of rain and snow across the central interior. Thanks to the rain shadow effect, Alberta will get very little moisture by comparison. In the afternoon, rain and/or snow will fall from Edson to Grande Prairie, and there is a chance of a few showers in southeastern Alberta, but a drying wind may cause them to evaporate before reaching the ground. In the evening, however, as the Low moves toward Oyen, snow will continue in a line from Grande Prairie to Edmonton, and change to rain as the band of precipitation continues southeast to Medicine Hat and Cypress Hills. It’ll be a frosty morning, but temperatures will rise to 5-10 degrees across most of the province.

Saskatchewan:

No significant weather is expected in Saskatchewan, except perhaps for some light snow in the far north. Elsewhere it will be dry as the morning westerly wind shifts to the south by afternoon. From Saskatoon south, highs will reach 5-10 degrees. North of Saskatoon, in dry weather, highs will end up between 0 and 5, and it will stay below freezing all day in the far north, where the snow flies.

Manitoba:

In Manitoba, the only prairie province where rainfall has reached or exceeded 100% of normal this growing season….more rain is expected Monday. A low pressure system over Falcon Lake will spread rain north to Hudson Bay, east of the Hudson Bay Railway line. Morning rain will be heavier in the Interlake and across southern Manitoba. Even though this is a fast moving system, the rain will fall through most of the day as the Low moves north to Hudson Bay. Yes, rain that far north is rare in November. The low will drag a cold front across the province, and behind the front, west of the Hudson Bay Railway line, light snow can be expected. Outside of the snowy areas, afternoon highs of 2-10 degrees are possible.

Tuesday

Alberta:

Snow! The Low in Edmonton moves south-southeast to sit near Plentywood, Montana in the afternoon. Through the day it will pass through eastern Alberta and southern Saskatchewan, where it will snow. Because the Low continues to move fast, snow amounts should be minimal, except in the higher terrain of the Cypress Hills. Snow’s expected in southern Alberta east of Highway 2 through much of the day. In southeastern Alberta, there will be a reverse temperature trend, as it cools down during the day as the Low passes through. By afternoon, temperatures will be near zero south of Edmonton, and just a degree or two below zero north of the city.

Saskatchewan:

While most of the province stays dry, southwestern Saskatchewan will be invaded by midday rain, which changes to late afternoon snow. This cold air comes in on the backside of the Alberta low that will take up a position near Plentywood Montana by late afternoon. In the evening, the Low shifts east to Williston, North Dakota, and will continue to spread snow into Saskatchewan south of the Trans Canada highway. The wind comes from the north, so there is a reverse temperature trend, as it cools in the afternoon. High temperatures will be near zero in southern Saskatchewan, and below zero in the north.

Manitoba:

As the snow flies to the west in Alberta and Saskatchewan, Manitoba will stay dry, except for the far north, where snow falls over the permafrost. Temperatures will rise above the melting point in the Interlake and in southern Manitoba, with slightly cooler conditions in the snowy north.

Wednesday

Alberta:

High pressure builds in southeastern BC, and on the east side of the Rockies in Alberta, a lee trough. On the north coast of BC, an intense Low, with intense rain. These three things are the ingredients that make a chinook. It will be cold in the morning….below freezing, and it may take all day for the chinook to land, but when it does, temperatures will climb rapidly above the melting point west of Highway 36. East of the highway, temperatures will remain at or below 0 through the day. It will be dry. No significant precipitation is expected, but you can expect a strong southwesterly wind.

Saskatchewan:

Wednesday’s a cold day in Saskatchewan. Subfreezing temperatures are expected all day. The warmth of Alberta’s chinook will remain aloft, and not reach the ground in Saskatchewan, but the dryness of the westerly wind will. As a result, other than some morning flurries south of the Trans Canada Highway, no significant precipitation is expected Wednesday.

Manitoba:

Some midday flurries and showers are expected in southwestern Manitoba, in places like Brandon, Virden, and Boissevain. Accumulations will be small, and the precipitation will wind down by late afternoon. Most of Manitoba should stay dry. It will be cold, with subfreezing temperatures in the north, and in western Manitoba. The closer you are to the Saskatchewan boundary, the colder it will be. Otherwise, some parts of southern Manitoba south of the lakes, could get temperatures rising above zero.

Thursday

Alberta:

Double digit highs achieved early Thursday morning, as the temperature peaks in the mid teens. An upper level ridge of high pressure is keeping much of Alberta clear and sunny, and drawing mild air into the region. Clouds are expected between Edmonton and Grande Prairie during the afternoon. And there may be a few showers for the Grande Prairie area in the afternoon. Likely showers of rain, as it will be too warm for snow. This map shows temperature expected Thursday afternoon:

Saskatchewan:

The upper ridge will bring warmth to Saskatchewan as well. The day will be sunny, until some clouds move into west central Saskatchewan by the end of the afternoon. The weather will be mild, and quiet. The map below shows midday temperatures expected across Saskatchewan Thursday, and it will be unseasonably warm.

Manitoba:

The map above also shows a warm day for Manitoba, particularly in central regions, where the westerly flow will carry warm Pacific air into the region. Agricultural regions will stay dry, with snow in the far north, where temperatures are below the freezing point.

Friday

Alberta:

The upper ridge continues to build over the prairies, so it will be another exceptionally warm day, with highs in the mid teens expected. The warmest region is likely to be southeastern Alberta, where temperatures could climb to between 15 and 20 degrees. It will be windy, with gusts to 80 km/h across the south. At the surface, a Low pressure system will traverse the Northwest Territories and drag a weak cold front across northern and north central Alberta. Along the front, there may be a bit of snow in the morning, and some further rain showers in the afternoon.

Saskatchewan:

More dry weather for Saskatchewan on Friday, with a southerly wind. And, like Alberta it will be warm, with temperatures climbing above zero, even in the far north. From Saskatoon south, expect highs to reach the mid teens. Even though the weather itself is not harrowing, it’s good harrowing weather (see what I did there?).

Manitoba:

Most of Manitoba is likely to have a dry day, as the upper ridge covers the entire province. The exception is the far north, where it will remain colder than zero, and some snow is expected north of Gillam. Elsewhere, including in the agricultural regions, temperatures will be above average, reaching the teens in Westman, high single digits elsewhere.

Saturday

Alberta:

Saturday starts off warm and dry across the southern prairies. However, a Low will form in the foothill near Edson, and by mid morning it will generate some snow in the Grande Prairie Peace River region. The Low will evolve into an Alberta Clipper and rapidly move east. As it crosses central Alberta during the day, the snow will become more widespread in north central Alberta. The south stays dry, and south of the Trans Canada Highway, there is still a chance of one more day of mid teen high temperatures.

Saskatchewan:

Another uneventful day, as Saskatchewan will stay dry. Like Alberta and Manitoba, areas south of the Trans Canada highway can expect double digit high temperatures.

Manitoba:

Outside of some snow in the far north, it will be another dry day across Manitoba. The snow in the north comes out of a Low in Nunavut, crossing Hudson Bay. The snow will stay over the permafrost, and won’t affect any agricultural areas. Across the Interlake and the south, it will be warm, with double digit highs.

Sunday

Alberta:

Noticeably cooler weather returns to Alberta Sunday, though with highs in the positive single digits, it will remain warmer than average. The Low that formed in Alberta Saturday will move into Saskatchewan, and on the backside of the Low, expect some rain in central Alberta, and snow to the north, especially around Cold Lake and Fort MacMurray, extending west to Grande Prairie. The Edmonton region could see some rain. It will be dry in southern Alberta.

Saskatchewan:

The Alberta low is now in central Saskatchewan, with all its precipitation on the north side. In central and northern Saskatchewan, surface temperatures will be near zero, but that warm layer is shallow, extending only about half a kilometre into the air, so any precipitation that falls in the area will do so as snow. A weak cold front will develop from the Low, extending southwest to the Cypress Hills. However, with a lack of available moisture, it’s expected to stay dry. South of Prince Albert, temperatures will climb to the mid single digits, right around the seasonal average.

Manitoba:

The Saskatchewan low will shoot some snow into northern Manitoba, while it remains dry in the interlake and southern regions. In the south, it will be warm with double digit highs as a flow of mild air comes in from the southwest. The warmth doesn’t extend all that far north, with temperatures in the northern half of the province remaining below zero. Far northern regions of Manitoba will get a break from the snow, and will appreciate it.

The plows have already been busy at the Lac Brochet airport in northern Manitoba. This photo is from midday Thursday, Nov 7.