Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – The long wait is over. There is snow on the ground across the southern prairies.   A storm system orginating late last week with an Idaho low, spread snow across the Canadian prairies, and the northern US plains.

Here is a summary of the snow totals in Alberta, provided by ECCC:

Alberta Snowfall Reports Nov 22 – Nov 23, 2024

Location	Snowfall (cm)	Source
Beaver Mines	26	ECCC and Alberta Government
Cold Lake	25	ECCC and Alberta Government
Waterton	23	ECCC and Alberta Government
Milk River	22	ECCC and Alberta Government
Coronation	21	ECCC and Alberta Government
Edmonton	19	ECCC and Alberta Government
Calgary (Airport)	18	ECCC and Alberta Government
Drumheller	17	ECCC and Alberta Government
Beaverlodge	16	ECCC and Alberta Government
Campsie	16	ECCC and Alberta Government
Stavely	15	ECCC and Alberta Government
Stony Plain	14	ECCC and Alberta Government
Lloydminster	14	ECCC and Alberta Government
Lac La Biche	13	ECCC and Alberta Government
Camrose	13	ECCC and Alberta Government
Lacombe	11	ECCC and Alberta Government
Claresholm	10	ECCC and Alberta Government
Edmonton (Airport)	9	ECCC and Alberta Government
Elk Island National Park	8	ECCC and Alberta Government
Edson	7	ECCC and Alberta Government
Fort McMurray	7	ECCC and Alberta Government
Calgary (Northeast)	30	Third Party Websites
Wainwright	30	Third Party Websites
Alix	20	Third Party Websites
Calgary (West)	20	Third Party Websites
Edmonton	15 to 20	Third Party Websites
St. Albert	19	Third Party Websites
Brooks	18	Third Party Websites
St. Paul	15	Third Party Websites
Wardlow	14	Third Party Websites
Medicine Hat	13	Third Party Websites

Data: ECCC

Similar amounts of snow fell in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, but as of this writing, the storm was still ongoing, and no final tallies were available.   The deeper the snow, the more likely it is that some of the moisture seeped into the ground.    A heavy blanket of snow protects the ground from the freezing cold air above, keeping the soil relatively warm, allowing some of the moisture to soak in.   A thin blanket of snow offers no such protection, so in areas like southern Alberta, where the snow cover is thinner, the ground is more likely to freeze quickly, with little to no moisture soaking in.

The snow came at a time where it was badly needed.   This soil moisture map from Windy.com shows the soil moisture deficit from the Rockies to Brandon, and from beyond the US border to Prince Albert and Edmonton.   Brown indicates abnormally dry conditions.  Blue shows areas with adequate or abundant soil moisture.

While this is not La Nina induced weather, it is perhaps a sign of what’s to come in early 2025, when La Nina finally arrives.  And, it’s now looking like it won’t be much of a La Nina.

“There’s a 57% chance La Niña will develop soon. This is late for La Niña to arrive, and it’s very likely to be a weak event at most. However, even a weak event can influence temperature, rain, and snow patterns across the world.”  –  Emily Becker, climate.gov

In her latest post at  Climate.gov’s Enso Blog, Becker notes that in the past 75 years, only 2 La Ninas have developed this late in the year, and with winter on our doorstep, there isn’t much time for La Nina to strengthen.    Nonetheless, the outlook for the Canadian prairies remains – a cold January-March, with above average precipitation.   And, the more moisture we can bank in those first three months of 2025, the better off we’ll be at the time of the spring melt.

This week – cold weather persists, with the potential for dangerously cold weather by the weekend.   And,  some areas will get more snow.

Monday:

Alberta

A strong high pressure system draws cold air from the Arctic into the prairies, and not just for Monday, but for the rest of the week.   Arctic high pressure is typically slow to move out, and is a dry air mass.   The upper flow into Alberta comes straight out of northen BC, Yukon, and Alaska.  So temperatures Monday and through the week will be at least 10 degrees below average.   In the afternoon, light snow is possible south of highway 3, and in central Alberta near Edmonton in the midday.  Total amounts:  2 cm or less.  By late afternoon, the Edmonton snow fizzles out, but the southern snow intensifies as it moves toward Medicine Hat and the terrain of the Cypress Hills.   Elsewhere, most of Alberta will be dry through the day,  with highs below -10.   There will be somewhat warmer, but still sub-freezing highs in the foothills and mountain parks.

Saskatchewan

By early morning, the snow will have ended in Saskatchewan, with the last of it crossing into Manitoba around the noon hour.   The sky will become mainly clear in the afternoon.   However, don’t expect any warmth from the sun.   Afternoon temperatures in much of southern and central Saskatchewan will range from -15 to -20,  slightly warmer in the southwest.

Manitoba

Snowy weather continues in southern Manitoba, but it will get lighter through the day.   The snow in southwestern Manitoba should be gone by the late afternoon, leaving behind a cloudy sky.   Also in the arctic flow that affects Alberta and Saskatchewan, western Manitoba temperatures will remain below -10.    in Eastern Manitoba, it will be warmer, with highs closer to 0.

Tuesday:

Alberta

While northern Alberta gets more snow, the rest of the province, including the agricultural regions, will have another day of cold, dry weather.   Late in the day, the snow may reach as far south as Cold Lake, before continuing on into Saskatchewan.   It’ll even warm up a bit!   Highs of zero to -5 are expected west of highway 2, whereas it will be cooler on the eastern side of the province, with highs near -10.  The far southwestern corner of the province, with the benefit of a westerly wind, could briefly climb above zero in the afternoon.

Saskatchewan

It will be dry across Saskatchewan except south of the Trans Canada Highway.  An easterly to southeasterly wind in the region will create snowfall, which will cross the southern part of the province from west to east during the day.  Accumulations in most areas should reach about 5 cm, slightly higher in the Cypress Hills.   It will be cold, with highs below -10 across the province, perhaps closer to -20 along the Yellowhead highway between Manitoba and Saskatoon.

Manitoba

Tuesday’s temperature pattern will be similar to Monday’s.   Cold weather in western Manitoba, with temperatures remaining below -10 west of Steinbach.   To the north, in the Interlake,  highs near -5 can be expected.   There won’t be much snow over agricultural regions.  The morning begins with snow in eastern Manitoba, moving toward Ontario.   In the west, where it will be much colder, it will also be sunnier.   At this time of year, though, the sun isn’t strong enough to make much of a difference when Arctic air is in place.   An easterly wind across Lake Winnipeg may generate some lake effect snow between the northern basin of Lake Winnipeg and Lake Winnipegosis.

Wednesday:

Alberta

Arctic air continues to envelop the prairies, and temperatures across Alberta Wednesday will remain below -10.   There is a chance for snow, expected to form near Grande Prairie early in the morning, and move diagonally southeastward through the day.   It’s likely it will be snowing along the Trans Canada highway between Calgary and Medicine Hat by the midafternoon, with the snow expending south into the Cypress Hills, and perhaps as far west as Lethbridge.    In the north, snow is forecast for Wood Buffalo National Park.   Snow amounts should be fairly light, but an updated forecast should be consulted before embarking on any travel.

Saskatchewan

Central Saskatchewan will be the coldest part of the province, with highs remaining below -15, in an east-west line centered on Saskatoon.   North and south of there, expect only slightly warmer weather with highs between -10 and -15.   A barely detectable warm front out of a Low in northern Saskatchewan, will spread a rather narrow band of snow from north to south as far as Regina.   Overall the snow will be light, but may be disruptive to travel, with what could be a brisk westerly wind just behind the front.

Manitoba

Other than some snow over Lake Winnipeg, generated by evaporation of open water, Manitoba should, for the most part, have a dry day.    There may be some snow along the Saskatchewan boundary in central Manitoba, and near the Hudson Bay shore.   Otherwise, it’ll be cloudy across most of Manitoba, with a similar temperature pattern to the two days previous.    Cold in the wet, warmer in the east,  but with highs remaining below zero all across the province.    The coldest weather will happen between Portage La Prairie and Dauphin, where highs may get to only -15 at best.

Thursday:

Alberta

It should snow through much of the day from near Drumheller to Edmonton and Grande Prairie.  5-10 cm of snow can be expected, though an easterly wind will enhance the snow totals in the foothills near Edson and Hinton.   Snow in southern Alberta, from Crowsnest Pass to Saskatchewan, will taper off during the day, leaving behind a partly cloudy sky for the afternoon.   The province will still be under the influence of Arctic high pressure at the surface and a northwesterly flow aloft.   So yes, it will be another very cold day.   East of the foothills, high temperatures will stay below -10,  but in the foothills, it may warm to about -5.   In Central Alberta, temperatures could fall during the afternoon, and by mid-evening in Lloydminster, it is entirely possible that it will be as cold as -30.   Keep your batteries charged, your jumper cables handy, and your cows in shelter.

Saskatchewan

The flow of bitterly cold Arctic air takes straight aim at Saskatchewan, and this could be the coldest day of the season so far.    Temperatures across most of the province will be  stuck in the -20s all day.   It will be a clear and sunny day with no cloud to provide the insulating effect that keeps temperatures from dropping to unspeakable lows.    By evening, temperatures will likely drop to -30 across central Saskatchewan.   There may be some late afternoon flurries near Leader, otherwise, the only snow expected in Saskatchewan Thursday will fall in the far northern forests.

Manitoba

For yet another day, Manitoba’s temperature pattern will have an east-west split, with highs near -15 west of Virden, and closer to -10 to the east.    With the warmth on the east side of the province comes snow.   And snow is expected to fall all day, in the warmer air east of Portage La Prairie, and all the way to the far northern regions of the province. The moisture is coming from the circulation around a Low pressure system near James Bay.

Friday:

Alberta

With an easterly wind, snow will continue to fall Friday in parts of Alberta.   In the morning, snow’s expected between Edmonton and Grande Prairie, and could intensify in the afternoon, especially close to the foothills.    The rest of the province will be mainly cloudy, but without any significant snowfall.   Arctic high pressure strengthens over the central prairies, so cold weather will persist.  It will be warmer in the foothills, with highs near -10, but for the rest of Albertans, temperatures will peak somewhere between -15 and -20.

Saskatchewan

Snow will fall Friday in northeastern Saskatchewan,  but the rest of the province stays dry.    Arctic high pressure will be centred over the middle of the province, drawing in cold air.   Early morning temperatures across central Saskatchewan will be near -30.  The high should bring sunshine to much of Saskatchewan, nonetheless it stays cold all day, with highs of -15 to -25 across the province.  At these temperatures, even the lightest of winds could produce a strong wind chill.   You’ll likely want to limit your time outdoors, and if you haven’t already done so, take precautions for your animals, as this will be the coldest day so far this season.

Manitoba

Most of northern and eastern Manitoba will receive snow through the day. The now oddly familiar temperature pattern remains, with very cold weather in southwestern Manitoba, and warmer conditions east and north of Lake Winnipeg.   Bittlerly cold air moves in Friday night, and temperatures could drop to near -30 in western Manitoba from The Pas to Brandon, close to the Saskatchewan boundary.

Saturday:

Alberta

A band of snow will form along something called a deformation zone, which will run diagonally from just north of Jasper to Coronation.   South and north of the zone it should stay mainly cloudy, but dry.  The band of snow will remain through the day and evening, shifting slightly north as the day goes on.  The deformation zone is essentially separating warm air to the west from arctic air across most of the province.    Temperatures in the foothills could warm all the way to zero, but in the rest of the province, highs will be closer to -15 to -20.

Saskatchewan

Light snow will fall from time to time across southern Saskatchewan during the day, and in the northeastern part of the province.  The cold air begins to moderate somewhat, with an end to the -30 overnight lows, but make no mistake, it’s another cold day.   Highs of -10 to -15 are possible south of the Trans Canada highway, but most of the province will only see highs of -15 to -20.

Manitoba

The pattern of warm air in northeastern Manitoba, and colder air in the south and west continues.   The big Low to the east that has been generating snow across Manitoba’s eastern half for several days will continue to do so.   A westerly wind in southwestern Manitoba will keep that region dry and cold, with highs near -20.

 

Sunday:

Snow will continue in northwestern Alberta, notably from Edmonton northwest to the Peace Region.   Saskatchewan can expect dry weather, and Manitoba will be dry, except for some snow in the Interlake.   There are signs of a warm up in the prairies for next week, but Sunday will remain cold.     Two maps below:    The first one, showing BC and Alberta, indicates mild Pacific air will begin to infiltrate the foothills, and temperatures there will rise to the negative single digits.    Elsewhere in Alberta, it stays cold Sunday.   The second map, shows how cold Sunday’s expected to be in the afternoon across the prairies.

 

 

 

COMPARE TO LAST WEEK: Prairie Weather This Week – Nov 18