Prairie Weather This Week

Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Warm weather and Alberta clippers will affect the prairies this week

This week, it’s one Alberta clipper after another. A series of fast moving clippers will cross the prairies during the week, bringing brief spells of cloud, wind, and light rain or flurries, but no major storms or cold outbreaks are expected. The overall weather pattern will remain dry, despite an active jet stream. A broad ridge of high pressure over Western Canada will keep the weather quiet, aside from the clippers. Check out the animated map below. It shows, over the next week, a series of Low pressure systems (clippers) forming in Alberta and moving rapidly eastward.

There will be snow and rain associated with each clipper, with the moisture mainly affecting central and northern parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan, along with southeastern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba.

Precipitation amounts will vary. The next two maps show total accumulated precipitation up until midnight Sunday, November 9. South of Red Deer and west of highway 2 in Alberta, little or no rain or snow can be expected. This includes areas northwest of Red Deer into the foothills. Elsewhere, there will be some rain and snow, due to the fast moving clippers.

As a side note, check out the rain expected on the west coast in the above map. Persistent Pacific lows continue to hammer the coast with rain.

This second map shows precipitation totals expected for Manitoba and Saskatchewan over the same period of time.

Note the banded nature of the precipitation. The areas of heavier precipitation track to the north of the clippers as they head southeast from Alberta. Central Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba will be the main beneficiaries of the moisture coming out of these systems as they track across the prairies and the northern US plains.

Day-by-Day Outlook:

Monday

Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba

A fast moving clipper system that brought a few showers to the Stettler area Sunday has moved into Saskatchewan and dissipated, leaving the prairies with an uneventful weather day. While cloud can be expected over southern Alberta, the rest of the prairies will be mainly sunny. Highs will range from 5-10 degrees across central and southern regions, thanks in part to a westerly wind. In the northern third of the prairies, expect highs between 0 and 5.

Tuesday

Alberta

A weak Low, an Alberta Clipper forms in southern the southern part of the province, bringing rain and snow back to the area. Snow is more likely in the Lethbridge area, gradually turning to rain to the east along Highway 3 to Medicine Hat. The snow may extend as far north as Vulcan. Further north, the weather should remain dry, and partly cloudy to mostly sunny. By the end of the day, the clipper will have moved to northeastern Montana, and high pressure will build over the Rockies. For two reasons…a lack of moisture, and the high speed of the system…accumulations will be light. In southern areas affected by the rain and snow, highs will only reach 0 to 5. Elsewhere in southern and south central Alberta, expect highs of 5-10. North of Edmonton, highs will be in the 9-5 degree range.

Saskatchewan

A clipper that forms early in the day in southern Alberta moves into southwestern Saskatchewan by midday. It will spread cloud across the southern part of the province, and rain west of Moose Jaw. South of the Trans Canada highway, with highs in the 0 to 5 degree range, snow or mixed precipitation can’t be ruled out. Accumulations should be light – 5 mm at most. To the north, central Saskatchewan will be mainly sunny. And, further north, expect light snow in the boreal forest, due to a weak (1014 mb) low in north central Saskatchewan. Again, accumulations will be minor. Away from the clipper, in central Saskatchewan, expect highs between 5 and 10. In the north, highs will be closer to 0, hence the possibility of snow.

Manitoba

It will be a dry day in Manitoba. From the central interlake south to the US border, it will be cloudy. Further north, expect sunshine. It will be an extraordinarily warm November day in Manitoba, with highs of 5-10 in the southern half of the province. Though sunshine will be more abundant in the north, it will be cooler, with highs near or slightly above 0.

Wednesday

Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba

With Tuesday’s weak clipper dissipating, mainly dry weather returns to all three prairie provinces. There will be cloud cover over most of Alberta, with sunshine in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The only precipitation expected is snow near Jasper, spilling over from British Columbia. The chances of this happening aren’t great, but also not zero. South of the Yellowhead Highway from Calgary to Thunder Bay, highs will be in the 5-10 degree range. West of Calgary and in the northern halves of all three provinces, highs will be closer to 0. There will be an easterly wind, though quite light.

Thursday

Alberta

Yet another, stronger, clipper forms, this time east of Calgary. As it moves quickly southeastward, it will leave a trail of precipitation across the prairies, as shown on the map below:

The clipper will form near Coronation in the early morning, and by the end of the day, it will be in northern Minnesota. As the map above shows, areas in Alberta that get moisture will see accumulations in the 6-17 mm range. The biggest uncertainty is what form the precipitation will take. The majority will be in the form of snow. Rain is possible in the Coronation/Oyen area, though it will change to snow in the afternoon as the clipper goes by and the wind shifts, drawing in colder air. There will be minimal moisture benefit from this clipper, but a few centimetres of snow will help retain soil moisture in some central regions of the province. The clipper will draw extraordinarily warm air into southern Alberta. South of the precipitation band, expect double digit highs. In central Alberta, where the precipitation falls, highs’ will range from 0 to 5, and north of Athabasca, it will be a sub-freezing day with highs from 0 to -5

Saskatchewan

The map above shows precipitation cutting across central Saskatchewan, as an Alberta clipper crosses the region during the day. The system will move fast, and with temperatures right around the freezing mark, most of the precipitation will fall in the form of snow. If the above map is correct, the most intense precipitation is likely to happen in the Yellowhead corridor. North of Saskatoon, it will be cold, with highs remaining below zero, and an easterly wind.

Manitoba

Southern Manitoba will get mixed precipitation from the fast moving clipper. Expect snow west of Lakes Manitoba and Winnipegosis, and rain or a rain/snow mix in southern Mantioba. Accumulations will be light – about 5 mm. The rain will begin in the midday, and after sunset, it is likely to turn to straight snow. High temperatures will range from 0 -5 south of the lakes, and it could be even warmer south of the Trans Canada highway, with highs from 5-10 degrees. Very warm for Manitoba in November. It’s a different story to the north. In central Manitoba, highs will remain below zero. North of Thompson, highs will struggle to climb to -10.

Friday

Alberta

Another Alberta clipper forms Friday. Early in the morning, a lee Low will form in southern Alberta, between Brooks and Medicine Hat. As the low forms, it will be quite warm in southern Alberta with midday highs in the 5-15 degree range south of the Trans Canada Highway and east of highway 2. Positive high temperatures will be reached northwest along the foothills to Grande Prairie. Of course, the clipper will also produce some precipitation. That’s expected in central and northern Alberta, and will be in the form or snow, or freezing rain. It will cause impediments to travel, and it would be advisable to check forecasts, watches, and warnings before using the highways. The clipper Low will move to northeastern Montana by the afternoon, with snow hanging back into central Alberta, and rain falling in the southeastern part of the province.

Saskatchewan

The next Alberta clipper is expected to take a more southerly route, and the snowy day expected in earlier outlooks is unlikely to materialize. The clipper will move from the Brooks area to northeastern Montana. That will produce some Saskatchewan snow in the afternoon, but only in the southwestern part of the province – along and south of the Trans Canada highway west of Regina. The rest of the province will be mainly cloudy, but dry. The southern snow will persist into the evening and overnight. Highs will be near zero in the south, and will remain below freezing from Saskatoon north.

Manitoba

Manitoba will have a relatively quiet weather day. There will be some light snow in southern Manitoba during the morning, but by midday it will have moved south of the border, and there will be clearing, so sunshine is forecast for the afternoon . A Low in northeastern Manitoba will bring snow to coastal regions near Hudson Bay throughout the day. It will be a cold day. All of Manitoba will remain below zero during the day. It will be a cold day, with highs across the province remaining below zero.

Saturday

Alberta

After a few early morning snow flurries in central and northern Alberta, it will end up being a rather quiet day. A big low pressure system in the Pacific will send mild air into southern Alberta, and chinook conditions are possible for the southern half of the province. Along the foothills and across southern Alberta, the warm wind will push high temperatures into the 5-10 degree range. Further from the chinook effect, expect highs between +5 and -5.

Saskatchewan

Early in the morning, light snow is expected for southern Saskatchewan. It won’t last long, and accumulations will be inconsequential. The snow will be pushed away by a rapidly developing high pressure system. That will clear the sky across the province, providing afternoon sunshine, but not a lot of warmth. It’s arctic high pressure, and some parts of central Saskatchewan may be stuck with highs below -10. Most of the province, though, will be a bit warmer, with highs in the -5 to -10 range. Brrr.

Manitoba

Hit and miss snow flurries are possible in the Interlake and in parts of southern Manitoba during the day. The low that produced snow on the Hudson Bay shore Friday will take unusual turn to the south, drawing the flurries into the rest of the eastern side of the province. Western and southwestern Manitoba should stay dry. Accumulations of snow will be minor, and temperatures across the province will range from 0 to -10.

Sunday

Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba

Chinook conditions will develop in Alberta, and strong wind is possible in the foothills and across the south. In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, high pressure will dominate, and both provinces will have a sunny Sunday. No precipitation is expected in any of the three provinces on Sunday. Along the Alberta foothills, in the Chinook zone, highs could soar to the 15-20 degree range, and the rest of Alberta will also experience above average temperatures. It will be cooler in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, as the map below shows….