Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Winter Weather begins across the prairies, first with snow, then with colder conditions
Southern Prairie Snow
The snow falling Monday morning in southern Alberta marks a change to a more wintry weather pattern for all of the prairies. Multiple rounds of snow will affect Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan early in the period, followed by a broader cooldown mid-week and quieter, more seasonal conditions by week’s end. Livestock operators should prepare for colder nights and increased energy demands, while grain and feed transport may be hampered along with all the other traffic during the early-week snow events.
It begins Monday, with 10-15 cm of snow along the Highway 3 corridor in southern Alberta. There will be higher amounts in higher elevations, such as the Foothills, Crowsnest Pass, and Cypress Hills. Monday night and Tuesday, the snow will move east, impacting southern Saskatchewan.
Monday morning, a Low will develop near Eureka, Montana, and move east, staying just south of the Alberta border. A low in Montana means snow in Alberta. by midmorning, the low is over Shelby, and snow becomes widespread across southern Alberta, south of Red Deer. There is a slight chance of freezing rain along the US border, near and east of Coutts. The snow in Alberta will continue all afternoon, before tapering off. By midnight, the snow will have left the province.
In Saskatchewan, the snow will begin in western sections by midday Monday, spreading across southern regions throughout the day and evening. The area hit with the heaviest snow accumulations will be south of the Trans Canada Highway. The snow will start pulling out of the region Tuesday morning, and will be over in most areas by mid-afternoon.
In Manitoba, the storm arrives early Tuesday morning, again moving along and south of the Trans Canada Highway from west to east. Manitoba’s not expected to get as much snow as Saskatchewan or Alberta, as the centre of the system will dip further south into the United States.
Possible snow totals for the prairies by early Wednesday morning:
As the storm trundles across the prairies, it will disrupt transportation. Before heading out, check with Environment Canada for the latest weather information, and for updated highway conditions, consult 511alberta, manitoba511, or in Saskatchewan, Highway Hotline.
Once this system moves out, it will be replaced by cooler weather, especially at night. However, daytime temperatures will remain near to slightly below average.
Monday
Alberta
As explained above, southern Alberta will get its first significant snowfall of the season. And while most areas will get small to moderate accumulations, there will be challenges on the roads, as is typical for the first snowfall of the year. A kink in the jetstream will allow an upper level low to form in northwestern Montana, and a supporting surface low will push the snow into southern Alberta. Again, details above. Central regions of the province, meantime, will have a sunny day, and in the north, there will be cloud, with flurries or light snow. Across the province, high temperatures will range from 0 to -5.
Saskatchewan
As mentioned above, snow will move into southern Saskatchewan from the west during the day, and carry on well into the evening. To the north of the snowy area, there will be some clearing just north of Saskatoon, with clouds and flurries from Prince Albert to the province’s northern boundary. Ahead of the snow-bearing storm, in southeastern Saskatchewan, it will be rather mild, with highs of 0 to 5. The rest of the province will be seasonably cooler, with highs between -5 and -10.
Manitoba
Snow from the prairie storm doesn’t arrive into western Manitoba until the evening, and prior to that, the weather will be dry. Expect mainly sunny conditions in southern Manitoba and the Interlake. Southwestern Manitoba will be under cloud cover, as the Low pressure system comes in from the west, eventually bringing the nighttime snow. Highs in southern Manitoba will range from 0 to 5, and it will be unseasonably warm in central and northern Manitoba, with most areas reaching the 0 to -10 degree range.
Tuesday
Alberta
Sunshine returns to Alberta as high pressure ridge redevelops aloft over BC, with another at the surface, centred right over Alberta. It will be a rather quiet weather day. Though most areas will remain below zero, the sunshine will cause at least some of the previous day’s snow to melt, perhaps causing slushy and slippery road conditions, especially on less travelled roads. Highs in southern and central regions will range from 0 to -5, and further north, expect -5 to -10.
Saskatchewan
Again as mentioned above, the snow arrives early Tuesday morning in southern Saskatchewan, and will be gone by the end of the day. The heaviest snow will fall south of the Trans Canada Highway in the morning, tapering off from west to east during the day. The snow should be all over by late afternoon or early evening. As the map above shows, accumulations will be considerable, and there will likely be disruption to travel. While the main impact of the snow will be in the south, the rest of the province will be mainly cloudy, and flurries can be expected from time to time outside of the main storm zone. High temperatures across Saskatchewan will be near -5.
Manitoba
Tuesday will also be the snowiest day for southern Manitoba. The snow will cross the southern part of the province during the day, with the heaviest snowfall south of the Trans Canada Highway. The remainder of the province will be cloudy, with flurries or periods of light snow. The south and the Interlake will reach the 0 to -5 range, and it will be only slightly cooler to the north. Refer to the map above for snow totals, and areas where the snow is expected. Travel during the snowfall may be impacted.
Wednesday
Alberta and Saskatchewan
A high pressure ridge centered over Saskatchewan will bring dry weather to both provinces Wednesday. Alberta will likely have a partly cloudy day, where as Saskatchewan will be sunnier. Significant precipitation is not expected in either province. There is a chance temperatures will rise above the melting point in southwestern Alberta, between Fort Macleod and Crowsnest Pass. Elsewhere, expect highs between 0 and -10. Saskatchewan will be colder. Most areas south of the Trans Canada Highway will remain colder than -10. In central Saskatchewan, highs will range between -5 and -10.
Manitoba
Highs will be near zero across most of Manitoba on Wednesday – warmest in the Interlake and between the Red River Valley and Ontario. Significant snowfall is not expected, as the system that brought snow earlier in the week moves on to Ontario, where it will re-intensify.
Thursday
Alberta
A second round of snow begins in southern Alberta Thursday. It’s the perfect setup for potentially high snowfalls, especially in the southwestern foothills. Areas between the Rockies and Cypress Hills could get as much as 15-20 cm of snow by Friday afternoon. A snowfall warning has been issued for this area. A high in Saskatchewan will generate an upslope flow against the southern foothills, enhancing the snowfall.
Calgary could see 5 to 10 cm of snow, and north of that city, amounts will be near 5 cm.
The snow will intensify all day expanding all the way east into Saskatchewan, and north beyond Edmonton by the late afternoon. Snow will continue to fall overnight. As the map below shows, 15 to 20 cm of snow will be possible in much of southern Alberta between 6:00 AM Thursday and 6:00 AM Friday:
Thick fog in eastern and central Alberta cloud linger into the afternoon, until the weather system bringing the snow moves through.
Northwestern Alberta can expect 2-4 cm of snow in the morning, which will spread southeast during the day.
Highs in central and southern Alberta will range from -5 to -10. It will be even colder to the north. North of Edmonton, expect highs between -9 and -12.
Meanwhile, in…..
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
Fog developed Wednesday night in many areas of Saskatchewan, and will improve during the day. Fog is likely to return tonight in southeastern Saskatchewan.
The map below shows snow expected up until 6 AM Friday morning:
A few cm of snow can be expected in west central Saskatchewan today, from the system that will give heavier snow to parts of Alberta. In Manitoba, snow will come from two sources. There will be lake effect snow off the Lakes, with the strongest snow band just east of Lake Winnipeg. Expect about 10 cm. Light snow is possible near Lakes Manitoba and Winnipegosis, but in smaller amounts.
There will be some cloud west of Regina and Saskatoon, but east of there to Winnipeg, expect mainly sunny conditions. This doesn’t mean it will be warm. The area will be under the influence of arctic high pressure with a cold northwesterly flow. High temperatures in most of Saskatchewan and Manitoba will range from -5 to -15.
Friday
Friday will be a chilly day across the prairies. The map below shows temperatures expected in the late afternoon:
Alberta
Snow and cold weather continue in Alberta on Friday. The snow will be light, but persistent south of Athabasca all the way into Montana, and more intermittent to the north. For most of Alberta, highs will come in around -9 or -10. Snowfall accumulations Friday will be lighter than Thursday night, with 5-10 cm falling between 6:00 am and 6:00 pm south of Red Deer. North of Red Deer, accumulations will be lighter. The heaviest snow can be expected near the Milk River Ridge, along the US border, with between 10 and 15 cm of snow.
Saskatchewan
In southern Saskatchewan, west of Chaplin, snow will continue to fall throughout the day. The rest of southern Saskatchewan will be under a cloudy sky, but should stay dry. The sun is likely to come out for areas north of the Yellowhead Highway from time to time through the day. Snow amounts will be generally light, though there is a possibility of moderate accumulations between Maple Creek and Grasslands National Park. Across the province, it will be cold, with highs reaching -10 at best.
Manitoba
Like Saskatchewan, Manitoba will be dry, partly cloudy, and cold. There may be a few flurries in the central Interlake, but accumulations should be minor. The map above shows a cold, below average day. The long term average highs are -5 for Winnipeg and Brandon.
Saturday
Alberta
The snow moves on. In the early morning, there will likely continue to be snow near the US border, but it will taper off as the system moves south. That will lead into some dry weather for the remainder of the day. Most of Alberta will experience a sunny Saturday afternoon, and it may be slightly warmer over the foothills, where temperatures could climb to the -5 to -10 range. Elsewhere, colder than average weather continues, with many parts of central and southern Alberta stuck in the -15 to -20 range.
Saskatchewan
Most of Saskatchewan will be dry, with a mix of sun and cloud. Light snow is possible in the northernmost regions of the province. A high pressure system will build through the day at the surface in southwestern Saskatchewan. That will clear the sky for the late afternoon. Aloft, a strong northerly flow will draw in cold air. So, despite sunshine, it will be a cold day, with highs of -10 to -15 across the province.
Manitoba
Building high pressure to the west will bring a mainly sunny to partly cloudy sky to most of Manitoba. Light snow can be expected on and off through the day in northern Manitoba. By the afternoon, a westerly wind could generate light lake effect snow east of Lake Winnipeg. Agricultural regions of Manitoba are expected to remain dry. In won’t be as cold in Manitoba Saturday as the other two prairie provinces, with highs between -5 and -10.
Sunday
Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba
All three prairie provinces will have rather quiet weather with varying amounts of sunshine. By afternoon, it should be mainly sunny, with no significant precipitation as high pressure continues to dominate at the surface. The active, snowy weather previously advertised for Alberta on Sunday will be postponed into early next week. Aloft, a high pressure ridge off the BC coast will put the prairies in a northerly flow, so it will be another cold day between highway 2 in Alberta and the Manitoba/Ontario boundary. In that area, highs between -10 and -20 can be expected. It will be warmer in western Alberta, with a westerly surface wind boosting temperatures to the 0 to -5 range west of highway 2.
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