Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Winter Weather begins across the prairies, first with snow, then with colder conditions
Southern Prairie Snow
The snow falling Monday morning in southern Alberta marks a change to a more wintry weather pattern for all of the prairies. Multiple rounds of snow will affect Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan early in the period, followed by a broader cooldown mid-week and quieter, more seasonal conditions by week’s end. Livestock operators should prepare for colder nights and increased energy demands, while grain and feed transport may be hampered along with all the other traffic during the early-week snow events.
It begins Monday, with 10-15 cm of snow along the Highway 3 corridor in southern Alberta. There will be higher amounts in higher elevations, such as the Foothills, Crowsnest Pass, and Cypress Hills. Monday night and Tuesday, the snow will move east, impacting southern Saskatchewan.
Monday morning, a Low will develop near Eureka, Montana, and move east, staying just south of the Alberta border. A low in Montana means snow in Alberta. by midmorning, the low is over Shelby, and snow becomes widespread across southern Alberta, south of Red Deer. There is a slight chance of freezing rain along the US border, near and east of Coutts. The snow in Alberta will continue all afternoon, before tapering off. By midnight, the snow will have left the province.
In Saskatchewan, the snow will begin in western sections by midday Monday, spreading across southern regions throughout the day and evening. The area hit with the heaviest snow accumulations will be south of the Trans Canada Highway. The snow will start pulling out of the region Tuesday morning, and will be over in most areas by mid-afternoon.
In Manitoba, the storm arrives early Tuesday morning, again moving along and south of the Trans Canada Highway from west to east. Manitoba’s not expected to get as much snow as Saskatchewan or Alberta, as the centre of the system will dip further south into the United States.
Possible snow totals for the prairies by early Wednesday morning:
As the storm trundles across the prairies, it will disrupt transportation. Before heading out, check with Environment Canada for the latest weather information, and for updated highway conditions, consult 511alberta, manitoba511, or in Saskatchewan, Highway Hotline.
Once this system moves out, it will be replaced by cooler weather, especially at night. However, daytime temperatures will remain near to slightly below average.
Monday
Alberta
As explained above, southern Alberta will get its first significant snowfall of the season. And while most areas will get small to moderate accumulations, there will be challenges on the roads, as is typical for the first snowfall of the year. A kink in the jetstream will allow an upper level low to form in northwestern Montana, and a supporting surface low will push the snow into southern Alberta. Again, details above. Central regions of the province, meantime, will have a sunny day, and in the north, there will be cloud, with flurries or light snow. Across the province, high temperatures will range from 0 to -5.
Saskatchewan
As mentioned above, snow will move into southern Saskatchewan from the west during the day, and carry on well into the evening. To the north of the snowy area, there will be some clearing just north of Saskatoon, with clouds and flurries from Prince Albert to the province’s northern boundary. Ahead of the snow-bearing storm, in southeastern Saskatchewan, it will be rather mild, with highs of 0 to 5. The rest of the province will be seasonably cooler, with highs between -5 and -10.
Manitoba
Snow from the prairie storm doesn’t arrive into western Manitoba until the evening, and prior to that, the weather will be dry. Expect mainly sunny conditions in southern Manitoba and the Interlake. Southwestern Manitoba will be under cloud cover, as the Low pressure system comes in from the west, eventually bringing the nighttime snow. Highs in southern Manitoba will range from 0 to 5, and it will be unseasonably warm in central and northern Manitoba, with most areas reaching the 0 to -10 degree range.
Tuesday
Alberta
Sunshine returns to Alberta as high pressure ridge redevelops aloft over BC, with another at the surface, centred right over Alberta. It will be a rather quiet weather day. Though most areas will remain below zero, the sunshine will cause at least some of the previous day’s snow to melt, perhaps causing slushy and slippery road conditions, especially on less travelled roads. Highs in southern and central regions will range from 0 to -5, and further north, expect -5 to -10.
Saskatchewan
Again as mentioned above, the snow arrives early Tuesday morning in southern Saskatchewan, and will be gone by the end of the day. The heaviest snow will fall south of the Trans Canada Highway in the morning, tapering off from west to east during the day. The snow should be all over by late afternoon or early evening. As the map above shows, accumulations will be considerable, and there will likely be disruption to travel. While the main impact of the snow will be in the south, the rest of the province will be mainly cloudy, and flurries can be expected from time to time outside of the main storm zone. High temperatures across Saskatchewan will be near -5.
Manitoba
Tuesday will also be the snowiest day for southern Manitoba. The snow will cross the southern part of the province during the day, with the heaviest snowfall south of the Trans Canada Highway. The remainder of the province will be cloudy, with flurries or periods of light snow. The south and the Interlake will reach the 0 to -5 range, and it will be only slightly cooler to the north. Refer to the map above for snow totals, and areas where the snow is expected. Travel during the snowfall may be impacted.
Wednesday
Alberta and Saskatchewan
A high pressure ridge centered over Saskatchewan will bring dry weather to both provinces Wednesday. Alberta will likely have a partly cloudy day, where as Saskatchewan will be sunnier. Significant precipitation is not expected in either province. There is a chance temperatures will rise above the melting point in southwestern Alberta, between Fort Macleod and Crowsnest Pass. Elsewhere, expect highs between 0 and -10. Saskatchewan will be colder. Most areas south of the Trans Canada Highway will remain colder than -10. In central Saskatchewan, highs will range between -5 and -10.
Manitoba
Highs will be near zero across most of Manitoba on Wednesday – warmest in the Interlake and between the Red River Valley and Ontario. Significant snowfall is not expected, as the system that brought snow earlier in the week moves on to Ontario, where it will re-intensify.
Thursday
Alberta
A second round of snow is expected to begin in southern Alberta Thursday. It’s the perfect setup for potentially high snowfalls in the southwestern foothills. Exact snowfall totals are not possible to predict far in advance. However, a Low off the Washington coast will push snow into the Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, and southern Alberta. A high in Saskatchewan will generate an upslope flow against the southern foothills, enhancing the snowfall.
The snow will intensify all day expanding all the way east into Saskatchewan, and north beyond Edmonton by the late afternoon. Snow will continue to fall overnight. As the map below shows, 20 cm of snow will be possible in much of southern Alberta between 6:00 AM Thursday and 6:00 AM Friday:
Highs in the snow zone will range from -5 to -10. It will be even colder to the north. North of Edmonton, expect highs between -10 and -15.
Meanwhile, in…..
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
It will be dry, except for the far southwestern corner of Saskatchewan:
There will be some cloud west of Regina and Saskatcoon, but east of there to Winnipeg, expect sunshine. This doesn’t mean it will be warm. The area will be under the influence of arctic high pressure with a cold northwesterly flow. High temperatures in most of Saskatchewan and Manitoba will range from -5 to -15. It could be slightly warmer btween Lake Winnipeg and the Ontario boundary.
Friday
Alberta
Snow and cold weather continue in Alberta on Friday. The snow will be light, but persistent south of Edmonton, and more intermittent to the north. A strong north wind will bring in some cold air, and perhaps even a noticeable wind chill. For most of Alberta, highs will come in around -9 or -10. Snowfall accumulations are impossible to predict with any accuracy this far out, but It will not likely fall as hard as on Thursday.
Saskatchewan
In southern Saskatchewan, west of Moose Jaw, snow will continue to fall throughout the day. The rest of the province will be under a cloudy sky, but should stay dry. Snow amounts will be generally light, though there is a possibility of moderate accumulations between Maple Creek and Grasslands National Park. Across the province, it will be cold, with highs reaching -10 at best.
Manitoba
Like Saskatchewan, Manitoba will be dry, mainly sunny, and cold. No significant weather is expected, but temperatures across the province will remain below -10. That’s below the long term averages of -5 for Winnipeg and Brandon.
Saturday
Alberta
The snow moves on. In the early morning, there will likely continue to be snow near the US border, but it will taper off as the system moves south. That will lead into some dry weather for the remainder of the day. Most of Alberta will experience a sunny Saturday afternoon, and it may be slightly warmer, especially over the foothills, where temperatures could climb to the 0 to -5 range. Elsewhere, colder than average weather continues, with many parts of central and southern Alberta unable to exceed -10.
Saskatchewan
A band of snow flurries will cross Saskatchewan from north to south during the day. Snowfall amounts will be minimal, and the snow won’t reach the Trans Canada highway until evening. Until then, it will be mainly cloudy int he rest of the province. Across the province, highs will remain below -10.
Manitoba
Agricultural regions of Manitoba will be under a cloudy sky Saturday, but no precipitation is expected. , In northern Manitoba, north of the lakes, there will be some light snow along a weak trough emanating from a Low high up in the Arctic. Across southern and central Manitoba, expect highs between -10 and -15. Further north, temperatures will remain closer to -20.
Sunday
Alberta
Alberta’s weather becomes active again, with a wintry start and a warm ending on Sunday. A Low pressure system in Yukon moves rapidly southeast, spreading snow into northern and central Alberta, beginning in the early morning. At the same time, a lee trough develops along the foothills, where it will be extraordinarily windy. This is the beginning of a chinook. By late afternoon, the low is to the north of Edmonton, spreading snow to the northern half of Alberta.
South of the low, a westerly chinook wind develops, and temperatures rise above zero in the foothills, south central, and southern Alberta. By evening, the low and most of its snow are in Saskatchewan, and chinook conditions are firmly in place all along the foothills from Grande Prairie to Montana. Grande Prairie may even warm to the 5-10 degree range. The rest of the province , except for the far north, can expect highs above zero, though it may not happen in some areas until late in the day, perhaps after sunset.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
A band of snow will cross central Manitoba Sunday morning, with the rest of the two provinces staying dry. That changes as a Low from Alberta plants itself right in the middle of Saskatchewan by the late afternoon and evening. After sunset, snow will spread all across Saskatchewan, heading into Manitoba on Monday morning. It’s not possible to forecast accumulations so far in advance, but we should have an update at Rural Roots Canada on Thursday. Sunday will be a cold day in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, with highs in the -10 to -15 degree range.
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