Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – It cannot be overstated how important it is that we get significant rainfall over the next couple of weeks, or how unfortunate it is that we won’t.

Now that we’re in between the harvest and the winter freeze, this is the perfect time of year for rain. The days are shorter, and the sun’s angle is lower, meaning much less rain will evaporate, and more will soak into the ground.   Rain that soaks in now will eventually freeze in place, and will be banked for the spring thaw.    The more rain that falls now, the higher the soil moisture levels will be when the big melt begins in spring 2025.   And the more moisture that’s in the soil in the spring,  the less we have to worry about premature snowmelt and runoff.

The bad news – no significant rain is in the near term forecast for the prairies.

The good news – A La Nina winter, if it is true to form, will produce a lot of snow, which, if it melts slowly and steadily, will be of great benefit in the spring.

In last week’s post showing the latest Canadian Drought Monitor,  there appeared to be many positive signs.   The area considered to be dry or in drought, was down considerably from the same time last year, and down considerably from earlier in the summer.   However, compared to longer term averages, soil moisture levels are relatively low.  From the Alberta Crop Report:

Surface soil moisture rated as good to excellent is 45%, below the 5-year (48%) and 10-year (59%) averages.

From the Saskatchewan Crop Report:

Cropland topsoil moisture is rated as 54 per cent adequate, 37 per cent short and nine per cent very short. Producers are hoping to get more rain prior to freeze-up to improve topsoil moisture conditions for next year.

From the Manitoba Crop Report:

The majority of the province is showing optimal condition at the 0 to 120 cm depth.

However, much of agro-Manitoba is reporting dry conditions to a depth of 30 cm.

Hence, the continuing need for autumn rainfall.

And rainfall is not going to happen in any meaningful way.   At least not this week.   At the end of this post, we’ll look even further ahead to conditions expected through to November 10.

The animated map below shows Precipitable Water over North America from early Monday morning to next Sunday evening (Nov 3).  Precipitable water refers to the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere that can be condensed into liquid water.  In other words, how much moisture is in the air to make rain or snow.    Brown on the map indicates dry air.   Blues and greens show where there is plenty of moisture available for precipitation.   Most of the prairies – all brown all the time:

This is not to say it will be completely dry all week all across the prairies.   Southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba are unlikely to see a drop of rain or a flake of snow.  The rest of the prairies are likely to see at least some precipitation, either rain or snow, this week.   Amounts, though, will be less than meaningful.  This map shows rain accumulations expected this week, according to Environment Canada’s GDPS model:

Parts of central and northern Alberta could see some rain this week, but mainly outside the agricultural zones.    South of Edmonton, in the few places where rain could fall, amounts will be less than 2.5 mm.   Not significant.

And, here is this week’s expected snowfall”

While the agricultural lands of southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba remain bone-dry, Alberta has a chance at some snow this week, though amounts will be insignificant, and add little relief to the soil moisture deficit.

So….when does this happen, and how about temperatures?    Breaking it down day by day:

Monday:

Alberta

Much of the rain and snow in northern Alberta shown on the above two maps will fall Monday.  A low pressure system that developed in southern Alberta just east of the Rockies will  move northeast toward northern Saskatchewan,  strengthening as it progresses.   This will lead to very early morning rain and snow in northeastern Alberta, and will become an all-snow event by breakfast time.  The snow in northern Alberta will continue off and on through the day.   With a westerly wind, the southern part of Alberta will stay dry, and partly cloudy.    Highs will reach 10-15 degrees in southern Alberta,  and between 5-10 degrees near Edmonton.   North of there, in the snow, it’ll be a sub-zero day.

Saskatchewan

The low that formed in southern Alberta Sunday will end up in north central Saskatchewan by early Monday morning.  It will spread rain and snow to all areas north of Prince Albert.  By the afternoon, the Low is in northern Manitoba, with cold air wrapping around it back into northern Saskatchewan.  The rain will turn to snow.   In the south, similar to Alberta, there will be a dry westerly wind, and no precipitation in any form.  Highs in the sunny south should reach the mid-teens, but in the north, with the cold air and snow, temperatures will peak around 0 at best.

Manitoba

A Low pressure system incoming from Saskatchewan will spread snow and freezing rain ahead of it into northern Manitoba early in the morning.   The snow will fall through the day as the Low reaches Churchill late into the night.    Agricultural regions will receive no benefit from this.  The rain and snow will all happen north of the lakes.    South of the Trans Canada highway, it will be mainly sunny, and temperatures will climb as high as 20, with mid-teen highs through the Interlake, and colder weather in the snowy north.

Tuesday:

Alberta

If there is going to be any snow at all in southern Alberta this week, this is the day.   There won’t be much.   Surface high pressure in British Columbia will put Alberta in a northwesterly flow, and there will be some moisture caught up in it, as something called a shortwave trough develops on the east side of the Rockies.  Light snow or flurries are possible in south central and southern Alberta in the morning.   It’ll be gone by noon, and the sky will rapidly clear.  What little accumulation develops on the ground will be erased by the afternoon sun.   There will be no benefit it terms of soil moisture.   It’ll be a chilly day, with highs only in the mid single digits from Swan Hills south to the US border.   North of Swan Hills, highs will be within a few degrees of -5

Saskatchewan

Bands of light snow are expected through the day north of Saskatoon, otherwise the province will stay dry.  After some morning cloud, most of the south will be under bright sunshine through the afternoon.   However, the flow is still from the north or northwest, which means single digit highs for most of the province.   In the far southeastern corner of Saskatchewan, it could be considerably warmer, with a push of mild air coming in from North Dakota.   In places like Redvers, Oxbow, and Carnduff, temperatures could climb to the low teens!

Manitoba

The Low that gave snow to the north on Monday continues to move away, leaving behind bands of snow north of the lakes for Tuesday. there will be plenty of cloud, but it will be dry.   Cloud in southern Manitoba is associated with a flow of warm air moving northeastward from the US.   South of the Trans Canada highway, temperatures could reach the low to mid teens.  To the north it will be cooler, though positive high temperatures are expected as far north as Gillam.

Wednesday:

Alberta

Some cloud cover will persist through most of the day in central and northern Alberta, but is not expected to produce any precipitation.   In most of the south, the sky will stay mainly clear to partly cloudy through the day, and while the sun isn’t as powerful at this time of year as it was only a few short weeks ago, it will be strong enough to produce positive highs across most of the province, and double digit highs in the south.    The exception to all of this is the far north, where it will be cloudier and cooler.   Places like Fox Lake and Fort Chip will likely stay below freezing.

Saskatchewan

Bands of cloud will cross northern Saskatchewan through the day, with some areas getting only peek-a-boo sunshine.   The central and southern regions will be sunny all day, with highs in southern and central Saskatchewan, west of Highway 11 climbing to the high single digits.   East of highway 11 and in central regions, expect highs in the low single digits.

Manitoba

Bands of cloud and light flurries will cross north central Manitoba throughout the day, but the agricultural regions will remain dry under a clear sky.  Southern Manitoba can expect highs in the high single digits, while it will be 5 degrees cooler in the Interlake.   In northern Manitoba, temperatures will remain below zero, preventing the bands of flurries from turning to showers.

Thursday:

Alberta

Some cloud cover will persist through most of the day in central and northern Alberta, but is not expected to produce any precipitation.   In most of the south, the sky will stay mainly clear to partly cloudy through the day.  Places like Fox Lake and Fort Chip will likely stay below freezing. Expect highs of between 0 and 5 south of Calgary, and between 0 and -5 north of Calgary.   It’s Halloween, and it will be cool for trick or treating across Alberta, with temperatures in the early evening near zero.

Saskatchewan

A southeasterly wind will draw in some warmer air to southern Saskatchewan, and maybe a bit of cloud cover.   But, no precipitation.   The province stays dry, and there will likely be some high, thin cloud in the south, as the warm air comes in.   Temperatures will climb as high as 10 degrees from Watrous to the US border, and cooler but still positive highs can be expected all the way north to LaRonge.   For Halloween evening, south of Saskatoon it’ll be rather warm, with temperatures from 5-10 degrees, but it will cool off fast after sunset.   Elsewhere, expect temperatures near zero for Trick or Treating.

Manitoba

No more bands of snow in northern Manitoba…the entire province will be dry.  In the interlake and southern regions, it will stay mostly cloudy through the day. Highs in the south will range from 0 to 5.  In central and northern Manitoba, it will be 6-10 degrees cooler.   In the south, trick or treating temperatures will be near or just above zero.   In the north, near or just below zero.   It’s nice to see a snow-free Halloween for the Trick or Treaters.   This photo is from Halloween afternoon near Minnedosa:

Friday:

Alberta

Disappointing news, as snow once expected to fall in parts of Alberta Friday will not show up.  South of Edmonton, it will be sunny.  North of Edmonton, it will be cloudy, but nowhere is any significant precipitation expected.  After a morning of freezing temperatures, the sun in the south should boost aftternoon highs to between 5 and 10 degrees.    In central Alberta, highs will come in around 0 to 5 degrees, and 0 to -5 in the north.

Saskatchewan

Saskatchewan will be sunny, dry, and warm Friday.   A southerly wind will draw mild air into southern Saskatchewan, and temperatures may get as warm as 15 degrees roughly along highway 6 from Dafoe, south through Regina, and to the US border.   Elsewhere, expect mild weather with positive high temperatures as far north as Prince Albert.    Neither snow nor rain are expected in Saskatchewan through the day.

Manitoba

Patchy afternoon cloud will arrive in southern Manitoba through the day, with sunny conditions in the province’s mid-section, and thick cloud cover in the north.   However, the dry weather continues as none of these clouds will produce any significant precipitation.   Highs in the south and through the Interlake will reach 5-10 degrees, with subfreezing temperatures all day in the far north.

Saturday:

Alberta

Things get a bit more interesting as a an elongated trough of low pressure at the surface develops along the Rocky Mountain foothills.  This will contribute to increasing cloud throughout the day across the province.   In addition to snow in the mountains and foothills, a band of light snow may cross central and northern Alberta, bypassing most agricultural regions.  In that area, highs will be near zero.   In the south, warm air drawn into southeastern Alberta on the east side of the trough, will lead to some double digit highs east and south of Calgary.

Saskatchewan

Some of the cloud from the above-mentioned Alberta surface trough will spill into southwestern Saskatchewan during the afternoon, but will not produce any rain or snow anywhere in the province.  A very warm southeasterly flow will develop, and boost temperatures as high as the low teens in many areas south of the Yellowhead highway.   Highs will be above zero as far north as Prince Albert, then cooler toward the Territories.

Manitoba

Manitoba’s agricultural lands will have yet another dry day, as yet again, there won’t be a drop of rain or a flake of snow anywhere in the province.   There will be some cloud cover in the far north, and a very narrow band of cloud from Sprague to Little Grand Rapids.  Otherwise, most areas of the province will be sunny with highs of 5-10 degrees in the southern half of the province, then much cooler to the north, where the temperatures will fail to reach the melting point.

Sunday:

Alberta

The cloud that developed in Alberta Saturday, will move east to Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and the Alberta sky will clear out during the day.  Snow will fall from those clouds as they pull out of the province with northeastern Alberta being the likely target of the most snow.   However, there won’t be much.    And, there won’t be any at all in most of southern Alberta, except for a slight chance of flurries or light snow near the Milk River ridge before sunrise.   A downsloping westerly wind will bring some warm air across the south, and along the foothills into central Alberta, where temperatures could achieve 10 degrees.  Outside of the chinook belt, temperatures across Alberta will peak between -5 and +5.

Saskatchewan

Cloud moving in from Alberta thickens up during the day north of Saskatoon, where as most of southern Saskatchewan will have another sunny day.   From the northern cloud, there will be rain, snow, or a mix of both during the day.  The clouds and precipitation will move through rather quickly, so there won’t be a chance of big accumulations.  Highs in the sunny south will climb to the low teens.   It won’t be so warm elsewhere in the province, with highs ranging from -5 to +5.

Manitoba

Cloudy and warm weather can be expected over almost all of Manitoba, and RAIN should fall in the interlake and in southern Manitoba east of Brandon.  This is welcome precipitation, but there’s still not a lot of it, with most areas getting less than 5 mm.  Even with the rain, temperatures in the south could reach highs of 5-10 degrees.   It’ll be cooler north of Lake Winnipeg, with highs of -5 to +5.

This article is from the front page of the Winnipeg Free Press, November 3, 1948:

 

 

COMPARE TO LAST WEEK: Prairie Weather This Week – Oct 21