Prairie Weather This Week (Rural Roots Canada) – September 22 – The dry weather pattern continues, with few rainy interruptions.
Autumn begins Monday, September 22 at 1:19 pm Central time and 12:19 pm Mountain time.
This first week of fall brings one of the better harvest stretches of September for Prairie farmers. Warm, mostly dry weather dominates through midweek, offering excellent combining windows in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Manitoba farmers continue to wrestle with wet fields, but drier conditions early in the week will help. The next system arrives late Saturday into Sunday with scattered showers in eastern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba, while Alberta stays dry. Overall, progress should advance rapidly across the Prairies, though Manitoba will continue to lag behind.
And, the battle is no longer against time itself, but also against frost. Frost has been reported in Manitoba, affecting soybean crops, and outer edges of corn fields. And with wet weather delaying the harvest in Manitoba, progress has been uneven. In Alberta, the most recent Crop Report indicates the harvest is 59 percent complete, and in Saskatchewan, 53 percent complete. The photo below was taken at a farm in northeast Saskatchewan:
Courtesy: Brad Curle
Below is a fun little chart. It shows the weather across North America for the entire week, from midnight Monday morning (Sept 22) to midnight Sunday night (Sept 28). It shows the dry weather pattern continuing across the prairies, with some showers early int he week in Alberta, and some showers next weekend for Saskatchewan. Blue shaded blobs on the map indicate snow, and it starts showing up in Alberta’s higher elevations next weekend as well.
The chart uses the Canadian GDPS model, which outperformed the rest last week when it forecast dry weather for Alberta, while the others called for rain.
On the left side of the map, you can see the west coast getting hammered with rainfall, but not much of that rain makes its way toward the prairies. An upper ridge of high pressure over western Canada will deflect Pacific storms to the north through the week.
Let’s break it down into day by day detail:
Monday
Alberta
Rain showers will move across southern and central Alberta from west to east in the morning. And there won’t be much, with most areas receiving 5 mm or less. Accumulations in the Vulcan area may be closer to 10 mm. Behind the showers, the sky will clear, but fields may be wet, briefly delaying the harvest. The return of sunshine will boost afternoon temperatures to the low 20s across all regions of the province.
Saskatchewan
There may be a few midday showers in the Maple Creek area of southwestern Saskatchewan early in the morning, but they will be brief, and will not lead to any significant accumulation. Elsewhere in Saskatchewan, it will become mainly sunny by the afternoon, staying dry. On the west side of the province, afternoon highs will reach the high teens. Further east, expect highs of 20-24 degrees.
Manitoba
Patchy fog in the morning will give way to afternoon sunshine, and highs across all of Manitoba will reach the low to mid 20s. This will provide much needed drying conditions for southern Manitoba, where many fields are still soft, but improving.
Tuesday
Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba
As the upper ridge holds, all three prairie province will experience a sunny, dry day, with just a few late day showers possible near Jasper, Alberta. That’s not agricultural territory, so the harvest across the entire region will continue uninterrupted. The dryness elsewhere in Alberta may lead to an increase in dust. Highs there will range from 23 to 28 degrees. In Saskatchewan, expect highs in the mid 20s, and in Manitoba, highs will range from 19 to 24. Some southern Manitoba fields may still be a bit damp, but good harvest progress is expected in central and eastern Manitoba.
Wednesday
Alberta
A cold front with a band of showers will stretch across central Alberta during the midday. The showers will extend roughly from Jasper to Cold Lake, bypassing Edmonton and the Lakeland to the north. That said, showers in those areas can’t be ruled out either, if the front wants to take a more southerly track. It’s safe to say from Red Deer south, Alberta will be dry and warm on Wednesday. An upper ridge of high pressure remains, refusing to open the door to any Pacific storms. The front will bring significantly cooler weather to central and northern Alberta, where highs will only reach the mid teens. In southern Alberta, south of highway 3, highs will again reach the low to mid 20s.
Saskatchewan
The cold front and associated showers mentioned above will also cross Saskatchewan. Showers will fall over mostly forested areas in the north, but some agricultural land north of Saskatoon may get a few sprinkles. The main effect of the front will be on temperatures. The map below shows a big difference in afternoon temperatures between areas to the north of the front and those to the south.
With no rain, and afternoon temperatures reaching the high 20s in southern Saskatchewan, there should be no weather related delays to the harvest there, and while the drier weather may allow those operations to go ahead, the unusually warm late September weather may cause stress on the crops.
Manitoba
In Manitoba, as the map above shows, the cold front will affect temperatures in the northwestern part of the province, with highs in the low 20s elsewhere. With more rain on the way in the coming days, this could be the best harvest day of the week for many parts of Manitoba.
Thursday
Alberta
A low developing in the Calgary area will bring cloud and scattered showers to northern and central Alberta by evening, moving to eastern Alberta overnight. During the afternoon, highs will reach the mid to high 20s in southern Alberta. and low to mid teens in northern Alberta. Patchy frost is possible in central and foothills areas, as overnight lows dip into the single digits. Behind the low and the showers, a westerly wind will develop overnight.
Saskatchewan
A Low in Alberta will move into western Saskatchewan late at night, but ahead of it, gusty southerly wind will develop. No rain is expected in Saskatchewan Thursday, but cloud will build in central and norhtern regions. Temperatures in southwestern Saskatchewan will remain unseasonably high, climbing to the low 20s. In central and eastern portions of the province, expect highs in the high teens.
Manitoba
A weak ridge of high pressure will keep Manitoba dry Thursday. Highs will reach the low 20s across southern Alberta, and in the north, expect afternoon temperatures in the upper teens. After some significant breezes earlier in the week, the wind will be lighter Thursday.
Friday
Alberta
The Low that produced rain for Alberta Thursday will have tracked into Saskatchewan by Friday. Behind the low, the sky clears, and the sky is sunny again. A westerly to northwesterly wind develops, and it could be particularly breezy in eastern Alberta. Early morning frost may be possible in the foothills, but the rest of the province carries no frost risk. Afternoon temperatures south of Edmonton should reach the high teens. Further north, expect highs in the 10-15 degree range.
Saskatchewan
Yesterday’s low in Alberta crosses central Saskatchewan Friday and produces periods of rain for the northern half of the province. South of Saskatoon, agricultural land will stay dry under a partly cloudy sky. There will be a brisk northwest wind, and it will be cooler as temperatures fall back to the mid to upper teens. By midnight, the Low will be in Manitoba, and the rain in northern Saskatchewan will end, followed by a clearing sky and a westerly wind.
Manitoba
Widespread showers can be expected in central and northern Manitoba, as the low from Saskatchewan moves in during the afternoon. Fronts will develop from the Low, and a cold front will sweep across southern Manitoba. While that region is not expected to get significant rainfall, the front will generate a gusty northwest wind, and bring cooler weather late in the day. Before the front crosses, temperatures in southern Manitoba could reach the mid 20s, then drop quickly back to the high teens.
Saturday
Alberta
Sunshine and a southwest wind will help temperatures climb to the low 20s Saturday in southern Alberta. It will by dry across the entire province, with no weather-related pauses in the harvest. Things will change, though late in the day. A Low will form just northwest of Calgary, and that will kick off some rainfall in the west central foothills, east toward Edmonton. The rain will begin late in the evening and will spread out overnight in a line from Jasper to Cold Lake. There is a slight risk of frost Saturday night in central regions and the foothills.
Saskatchewan
A low pressure system in the Northwest Territories will produce some rain in northern Saskatchewan, but the vast majority of the province will be dry, with some cloud cover in central regions. There will be no significant rainfall in agricultural regions. South of Saskatoon, expect highs in the low 20s. It will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler in the north. The wind may be a bit brisk in the morning, easing through the rest of the day.
Manitoba
A westerly wind and sunshine will make for excellent harvest conditions in Manitoba on Saturday. West of Portage la Prairie, temperatures in southern Manitoba should reach the low to mid 20s, with high teens and low 20s expected between Portage and the Whiteshell. In north central Manitoba, expect typical fall conditions with highs in the mid teens.
Sunday
Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba
Early morning rain showers across central Alberta will end as high pressure develops and strengthens over the prairie provinces Sunday. All three provinces will be under a sunny sky with light and variable wind. In Alberta and Manitoba, temperatures will be seasonable, with highs in the upper teens to low 20s in the south. Temperatures in Saskatchewan will be similar, though they could climb to the mid 20s along the US border.
Earlier this week, we suggested the possibility of snow the west central foothills from Edson to Jasper. While it’s expected that the overnights and early mornings in the area will be quite cold, moisture is not expected to coincide with the colder weather, therefore snow is no longer expected.
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